Seeking Alpha

Eurozone flash Q1 GDP comes in flat vs. expectations of a 0.2% contraction, narrowly avoiding...

Eurozone flash Q1 GDP comes in flat vs. expectations of a 0.2% contraction, narrowly avoiding the region's second recession in three years after GDP contracted 0.3% in Q4. European stocks tick up slightly: London +0.1%. Paris +0.5%. Frankfurt -0.1%. No immediate response from the euro, which remains +0.2% vs. USD. (see also: diverging growth in the eurozone)
Comments (6)
  • I dont see this as avoiding recession. The US didnt have consecutive quarters of negative grown in 2001, but everyone agrees there was a recession. In fact, the US didnt even have two quaters whose combined growth was negative. Europe just made that metric.
    15 May 2012, 05:26 AM Reply Like
  • The aggregate number is as meaningless for the EU as it is for the US or Asia. Germany and parts of Northern Europe are growing while the rest are either stagnant or in the case of Southern Europe are shrinking.
    The EU is compressing. Germany is the abnorm. Greece is the norm ,
    15 May 2012, 05:27 AM Reply Like
  • And 8 countries were not taken into account here it seems..., among which 6 had a negative Q4 growth rate (Denmark, Ireland, Greece, Malta, Slovenia and Sweden). The 2 positive Q4 rate are for Luxembourg and Poland.
    15 May 2012, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • I follow the E17 economic sentiment indicator which has been below
    its 9 month moving average since June of last year...until that moves
    up through that moving average I don't see a recovery in Europe...
    15 May 2012, 05:49 AM Reply Like
  • It must mean banks runs are good for the economy....I distrust this number just the way every talking head is saying "see..no recession"
    15 May 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • Why all the focus on a technical indicator of recession. If people feel the economy is bleak and not improving, then in their minds there is a recession and they will act accordingly. But I guess academics have to do something to justify their tenures.
    15 May 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)