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Patriot Coal's (PXC -16.1%) downward guidance in its metallurgical coal sales volume for the...

Patriot Coal's (PXC -16.1%) downward guidance in its metallurgical coal sales volume for the rest of the year is dragging down the entire sector (KOL -1.9%). Among heavy miners of met coal, such as Alpha Natural (ANR -7.4%) and Walter Energy (WLT -5%), the drops are the worst. Also: BTU -4.7%, CNX -4.6%, ACI -4.5%, JRCC -3.9%, CLD -3.2%.
Comments (13)
  • jr99@aol.com
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    WLT at support, down risk is 57, time to buy WLT
    15 May 2012, 02:28 PM Reply Like
  • starbase
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    If your going to by coal sell the put options on the stock you choose. ex: SELL THE 57.50 put on WLT for $144.00 by friday.If WLT closes above 57.50 you keep the $144.00 Break even at56.06
    16 May 2012, 01:30 AM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4254) | Send Message
     
    I think a lot of the coal and mining stocks are way oversold from a financial view, but there is still a lot of negative sentiment out there, so not buying just yet. Always hard or impossible to pick the bottom, but I think the coal stocks especially are getting near.

     

    And some, like FCX and BHP are hanging around the 3% dividend level now.
    15 May 2012, 02:53 PM Reply Like
  • J 457
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    Bought all the coal stocks I could afford. Great once in a decade prices.
    15 May 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4254) | Send Message
     
    Right now there is a short term panic, and all mining type stocks are selling off like crazy, good and bad. I picked up a little more (FCX) but holding off on coal for a day or two until I see a little better sign of them bouncing off the bottoms.
    15 May 2012, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • The Sane Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    I think if you're picking up Patriot Coal right here you're basically trying to catch a falling knife. Bondholders are no doubt looking at their equity buffer rapidly dissolving and the continually deteriorating earnings outlook and contemplating a bankruptcy and seizing the company.

     

    PCX will likely be a chapter 11.
    15 May 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • buyitcheap
    , contributor
    Comments (1848) | Send Message
     
    Look hard at the bonds of some of these better companies, JRCC, ACI they will be available at 50 cents on the dollar and the world still needs coal, plus there may be some "relaxation" of enviro trends should the current occupant of the white house be forced to vacate come November.
    15 May 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4254) | Send Message
     
    Actually he won't vacate until January :)
    16 May 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • buyitcheap
    , contributor
    Comments (1848) | Send Message
     
    LOL - fair point, but he won't be able to do much more damage...
    16 May 2012, 12:23 PM Reply Like
  • schminkie
    , contributor
    Comments (139) | Send Message
     
    doing some back of the envelope math i see that the market cap of anr at current prices is about 2.9 billion. the equity per the balance sheet - Q1 - is about 7.4 billion. granted i don't have an mba but when the market cap is less than half the shareholders equity i'd say something is out of whack. i am very much aware of the businesses and trends in the coal and iron ore sectors - ie steel. - i still think this would be a strong buy regardless. if i'm mixed up let me know.
    15 May 2012, 06:25 PM Reply Like
  • Jay Vee
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Stay cautious on coal stocks until the "coal rails" start acting better. Some reports indicate rail car loadings are down as much as -20% reinforcing coal company news of production curtailments.

     

    Increased rail car loadings would obviously point toward higher coal production and presumably higher demand stimulating better pricing. Coal rails would probably lead any published news in this area.

     

    Watch CSX. Look for sustained support at the Nov'11 low of 20. If it breaks that level, be prepared for more bearish coal downside. OTOH, positive CSX price action on increasing volume will probably be a significant signal encouraging coal bulls that a bottom is near.
    16 May 2012, 12:38 AM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4254) | Send Message
     
    I think that the rail stocks are one of the best indicators for coal, but getting up to date info can be a challenge. There used to be a website that published the weekly rail info, but I guess it was not supposed to be public, so no longer available.
    16 May 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Junc Bond
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/LufYrt
    25 May 2012, 02:55 AM Reply Like
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