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Unemployment's not getting any better in MichiCaliFlAriVada.

Unemployment's not getting any better in MichiCaliFlAriVada.
Comments (6)
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (7346) | Send Message
     
    wow... big surprise. Can we say lagging indicator and move on!
    2 Sep 2009, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3531) | Send Message
     
    No! It's a lagging indicator if there are new jobs coming. Most commentators don't see any pickup in new jobs for several years. That will put pressure on local governments, due to declining tax bases, to cut or defer employment. Likewise, retail will run a tight ship due to reduced revenues from our 'new normal'. We won't move on; we'll be stuck with a lower employment rate.

     

    On Sep 02 06:27 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:
    wow... big surprise. Can we say lagging indicator and move on!
    2 Sep 2009, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • EX-AD-MAN
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
     
    I often wonder what percentage of the nation's entire private payroll in 2007 was paid out of borrowed money?

     

    And what about the government? I know the federal pensions are borrowed from China, but what about payroll? It's just an insane employment picture looking back, and just plain sad looking forward.
    2 Sep 2009, 07:05 PM Reply Like
  • Bill L.
    , contributor
    Comments (682) | Send Message
     
    Jobs data are a lagging indicator by nature. The problem is that people are reasoning by analogy; on average the rate of jobs losses peak before clear indications of growth, therefore, buy stocks before the economy picks up. The problem with this is true... ON AVERAGE.

     

    If you look at each recession, there are several times where this is not true. Furthermore, if you look at the instances where this is not true, it is always the deeper, more prolonged recessions. For instance in the Great Depression and the post WWII recession, the stock market did not fully bottom until the economy had been growing clearly for several months; people waiting for real growth not second derivative improvements.

     

    People are rightfully skeptical of second derivative improvements because history shows us that the worse the recession, the less reliable lagging indicators such as a second derivative improvement in the rate of job losses are. Not saying don't look at it, but I would have a different weighting on it. Don't take what they say on CNBC as Dogma.
    2 Sep 2009, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Niner
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    Most commentators don't see any pickup in new jobs for several years.

     

    Did "most commentators" see the coming crisis a couple of years ago?

     

    On Sep 02 06:45 PM Poor Texan wrote:

     

    > No! It's a lagging indicator if there are new jobs coming. Most
    > commentators don't see any pickup in new jobs for several years.
    > That will put pressure on local governments, due to declining tax
    > bases, to cut or defer employment. Likewise, retail will run a tight
    > ship due to reduced revenues from our 'new normal'. We won't move
    > on; we'll be stuck with a lower employment rate.
    >
    > On Sep 02 06:27 PM Stone Fox Capital wrote:
    > wow... big surprise. Can we say lagging indicator and move on!
    2 Sep 2009, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • HappyChappy
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    Wow. How is this news. (And Niner, I agree with you . . . )
    2 Sep 2009, 11:49 PM Reply Like
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