- Reacting to news of a possible sale of Marketo (NASDAQ:MKTO) -- which just closed up 24.7% after spiking 15% on earlier chatter -- Credit Suisse believes SAP is the most likely acquirer.
- Several vendors are still missing critical CRM components, the firm says, and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is a potential bidder as well.
- Acquisitions in the cloud sector have tended to focus on the multiples of enterprise value to the last-12-months subscription revenues, it says.
- Modeling several acquisitions over the past year and applying that multiple to Marketo ($198.9M in last-12-months sub revenue, and revenue growth of 38.1%) brings a share price of $44.35 -- 65.7% upside from the just-inflated closing price. Applying a standard error to the multiple brings a warranted price range of $37.03-$51.67 (38% to 93% upside).
- Now read Competition The Issue As Marketo Pivots To Enterprise »