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Raymond James eyes $80 oil by year-end 2017; upgrades Murphy Oil

  • Analysts at Raymond James offer perhaps the most optimistic outlook anywhere for crude oil prices, predicting WTI will average $80/bbl by the end of next year on growing confidence that tightening global oil supply/demand dynamics will support a much higher price level.
  • James sees production outside the U.S. being curbed by more than previously expected, or 400K fewer bbl/day of oil being produced in 2017 relative to its January estimate, particularly organic declines in China, Columbia, Angola and Mexico.
  • Among other reasons, the firm also notes that the unusually large number of unplanned supply outages will, in some cases, persist throughout 2017, taking another 300K bbl/day out of global supply.
  • Using his firm's broader oil outlook, James analyst Pavel Molchanov upgrades Murphy Oil (MUR +6%) to Market Perform from Underperform, adding that he believes MUR's dividend is safe.
  • ETFs: USO, OIL, UWTI, UCO, OTC:DWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DTO, USL, DNO, OLO, SZO, OLEM

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