- Even as WTI crude oil now -4.6% at $47.79/bbl and Brent -4.8% at $48.43, Reuters' John Kemp says crude prices so far have shown only a relatively modest impact from the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union.
- According to Kemp, the price move in dollar as well as percentage terms was about two standard deviations compared with all one-day price changes since 1990; far larger moves have been common in oil markets, which suggests traders see the impact from the vote as relatively limited, at least for now.
- For the longer term, the impact on oil demand will be too small to register on a global level, Kemp says, noting that Britain consumes less than 1.6M bbl/day of oil - 1.6% of the global total - and the country’s consumption has been static or falling since 2005.
- Kemp concedes that his assessment could change rapidly as the consequences of Brexit become clearer.
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