- The bank's credit and debit card numbers say consumer spending slowed in July, with retail sales down 0.3% from June (seasonally adjusted). This follows a flat M/M read in June. BofA chief economist Michelle Meyer paints the slowdown as a cooling off from the exceptionally strong gains from March through May.
- Nevertheless, Census Bureau data have closely followed that of Bank of America, so a soft July retail sales report or a downward revision to June on Friday shouldn't be a surprise.
- Looking at the longer view, BofA data shows sales ex-autos are up just 0.7% Y/Y.
- Checking bond yields ahead of the number, the 10-year Treasury - which shot all the way up to 1.62% following last Friday's strong jobs number - has retreated back to 1.52%, roughly the level it was at prior to the print. TLT +0.4%, TBT -0.8%