- Citigroup initiated coverage on the steel sector (NYSEARCA:SLX) today with a positive outlook, with Buy ratings on U.S. Steel (NYSE:X) and Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:STLD), and Neutral ratings for AK Steel (NYSE:AKS), Nucor (NYSE:NUE) and Commercial Metals (NYSE:CMC).
- Citi sees prices for hot-rolled coil holding the $550-$600/ton range into 2017, a relatively more bullish view than the consensus which expects prices to fall quickly in H2 given relatively high price premiums vs. imports, but the firm finds support from idlings, imports and inventory.
- The firm considers US Steel the top pick for near-term upside in the sector, saying the company currently has “the highest operating leverage, highest short interest and most upside to consensus estimates."
- Citi likes STLD as one of the lowest-cost operators in the U.S. and notes that the company has been generating mill EBITDA margins five percent above the industry average over the last five-year and 10-year period.