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GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT): FQ4 EPS of $0.69 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $354M (+30.3% Y/Y)...

GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT): FQ4 EPS of $0.69 misses by $0.02. Revenue of $354M (+30.3% Y/Y) misses by $39M. (PR)
Comments (48)
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    they earned 1.45 per share! its only trading at 5 change. 1.8 billion dollar backlog. margins were 43%! this was an incredible quarter. this thing sold off from 10 to 5 on NOTHING. BUY NOW
    16 May 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • jjjorgen
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. It was as good as we could expect, if not better. Love the backlog, good till middle CY 2013. No huge negative surprise, like shorts were expecting. BUT, I'm sure they will beat their drums and tell people GTAT is going out of business. Conference call tomorrow morning will be interesting.
    16 May 2012, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • Bill Swiggart
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Solid quarter, solid year, solid guidance. Stock crazy cheap, needs to double just to climb to a 12-month trailing PE of 7.
    16 May 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • dgerroll
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    I hope you guys are right!
    16 May 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    these idiot shorts are going to be sorry tomorrow. if anyone knows how to read a 10k this thing will be at 7.50 by the open. guidance should be at the minimum 1.50 for FY13 - throw 5x on that and your done. longer term FY14 should be in the 2.50 range with an 8x = $20 bucks per share this time next year
    16 May 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • dknow
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Very pleased. Solid quarter given industry trends. Inventories up 50% y/y and improved plant combined with that healthy backlog tells me GT is preparing to take off.

     

    I'm blown away by the success of the sapphire group and I think we just saw the bottom of the PV segment with solar panel mfgrs having to provide greater efficiencies in order to survive.

     

    Tom G should be giddy after all the bashing the stock has taken and the outlook call will be interesting. Well done GT.
    16 May 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    i agree 100% with your outlook. impressive that they can buy a business for 200M and turn it into a 900B backlog in no time. I would love to see management buying shares for their personal accounts. If i had some equity in my home I would pull it out to buy GTAT below 6 bucks. now i understand what warren buffett felt like when he was talking about an oversexed man in a harem.
    16 May 2012, 07:34 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    check out the facts http://bit.ly/JtRQcd
    16 May 2012, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    You are being serious about 7.5 bucks tomorrow?
    16 May 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • vireoman
    , contributor
    Comments (908) | Send Message
     
    I'm an investor in GTAT, and if it goes down more, I'll buy more. However, there are some undeniable headwinds for the company, that being the potential for China to retaliate for US solar tariffs (thus hurting GTAT), and the fact that additional solar manufacturers, such as LDK Solar, may go under, thus resulting in more cheap equipment being placed on the market.
    16 May 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    cheap equipment that cant be used by anyone because if they are going under they arent using gtat equipment. anyway china isnt going to let its companies go bankrupt. they are just going to recapitalize them so they can invest in better equipment (see gtat) so they can compete - even with the stupid tariffs.
    16 May 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • srspa77
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
     
    I'm shorting tomorrow. You are all nuts.
    16 May 2012, 10:42 PM Reply Like
  • AlbionWood
    , contributor
    Comments (805) | Send Message
     
    Good call! $4.88 today
    17 May 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    You were right haha. Congrats
    17 May 2012, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • jjjorgen
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    Shorting at $5.40/shr?? I think your nuts!
    16 May 2012, 11:01 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    Good luck in finding downside!
    16 May 2012, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    Here is a look at what guidance might look like http://bit.ly/Ji3ads last paragraph
    17 May 2012, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • jjjorgen
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    Furbo, couldn't resist. Bought another 8400 shares @ $4.46. Ridiculous. Took a slight loss on what I sold to make this transaction, but I will be rewarded. Shorts and poor market conditions brought us down, but I guarantee, this will correct! I've got time!
    17 May 2012, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • jjjorgen
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    Nice, Furbo!
    17 May 2012, 07:43 AM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    A new low.Great
    17 May 2012, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    this tariff news by itself isnt what is bad, its that the chinese may (will) retaliate with tariffs on polysilicon producers in us ($GTAT) -- we just started a trade war and I have alot of pie in my face. if chinese go through with this threat gtat is worth 3 bucks a share max for the sapphire segment. unbelievable.
    17 May 2012, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • jjjorgen
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    This must be what you are referring to:
    The tariffs on Suntech and Trina were lower than the more than 100 percent tariffs sought by SolarWorld USA and six other companies that had complained to the U.S. government about Chinese imports.

     

    Shares of U.S.-based solar companies rose on the news, with First Solar Inc up 4.1 percent and Sunpower Corp gaining 11 percent. Sunpower Corp was already rallying after Apple Inc said it would use the company's solar panels for its solar farm.

     

    U.S.-listed shares of Chinese solar companies dipped, particularly Yingli Green Energy, which was off 10.6 percent.

     

    I'll need to study the potential Polysilicon impact, but 31% was better than 100%. We'll see what additional impact GT says may be forthcoming.
    17 May 2012, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    im talking about china retaliating and slapping a tariff on polysilicon produced by us manufacturers ! this would be horrible horrible horrible news. this was my largest position 51%, and due to the drumming i just took it looks like i may need to find something else to do with my spare time as my wife is going to have my throat
    17 May 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • jjjorgen
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    There will be threatening back and forth, but the final decision comes in October. I can't blame the U.S. for trying to protect U.S. interests, as we are always bending over to the cheap labor. What would you have them do instead, I'm just curious?
    17 May 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    let them drive down the price of panels to grid parity so we can become energy independent asap?
    17 May 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • jjjorgen
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    So I listened to every word of the conference call this morning. Was very impressed with GTAT's research and development into new winning endeavors. Understandable with everything I'm reading. So now that I'm pretty heavily invested, not sure where to head on this one? One new little piece of news just out:

     

    NASHUA, N.H., May 17, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- GT Advanced Technologies Inc.,
    (NASDAQ: GTAT), today announced that it has received two orders totaling $8
    million from Taiwan-based wafer manufacturer UTECH Solar. One order is for its
    new DSS(TM) 450 MonoCast(TM) silicon growth technology
    and the other order is for additional GT DSS(TM)450HP casting
    furnaces. UTECH will upgrade a portion of their current GT DSS450 casting
    furnaces to begin producing MonoCast(TM) wafers, which will
    strengthen its competitive position as a wafer supplier to meet the expected
    demand for higher efficiency solar cells. In addition, UTECH is also increasing
    its total wafer production capacity with additional GT DSS450HP multicrystalline
    casting furnaces to meet the demand from its key customers.

     

    "This is the first commercial order for our new DSS
    MonoCast technology, and we are pleased to be working with our long-time PV
    customer UTECH Solar," said Tom Gutierrez,
    GT's president and CEO. "We
    expect that the PV industry will begin to transition a portion of its
    traditional multicrystalline wafer production capacity to new crystalline growth
    technology such as our DSS MonoCast systems that offer wafer producers
    additional revenue opportunities by selling higher value wafers because of their
    inherently better material quality."

     

    "We are seeing a growing interest from our solar cell
    customers for higher quality wafers capable of producing higher efficiency
    cells," said Ben Pan, executive administrator, Utech
    Solar Corporation. "GT's
    DSS 450 MonoCast technology will give us this capability and the additional
    DSS450HP systems will add to our overall production capacity allowing us to
    increase our competitiveness as the PV industry begins to recover in the coming
    years."

     

    The DSS450 MonoCast system delivers high mono volume yields. The system features
    advanced hardware and an industry first automatic seed retention feature that
    eliminates dipping and operator intervention between the melt and growth cycles
    helping to automate the process and enabling the production worthiness of the
    DSS450 MonoCast system. Customers currently operating DSS furnaces can migrate
    to the new DSS450 MonoCast system through a field upgrade.
    17 May 2012, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • dknow
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    The Chinese will make their panels elsewhere to avoid the tariffs. That is clear for the big guys. To do this they will have to tool up new facilities offshore with the latest tech. Sounds promising. The Taiwanese already see an opportunity in this with their purchase of furnaces within 24 hrs of the announcement on tariffs. Maybe US mfgrs will get smart and invest too given this chance to compete using the latest tech. Too much invested in China on solar to sit still. More efficiency = parity and I don't think we'll be hurt much by these tariffs. Relax. It has all been planned out.
    18 May 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • solitude chuck
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    The led and solar markets are off, but GTAT might do a better job with the analysts. Compare Veco, which laid off a lot of people to minimize expenses. Which makes long term sense?
    21 May 2012, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    the more i read the more i am convinced that gtat is going to be a leader in the industry for a long time. right now solar and led are "bad" neighborhoods to be in but one day they wont be and it will be nice to have bought the nicest house on the block for 4.50 a share
    21 May 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    More good news. PO for GTAT has been reduced to $8.82 from $12.
    23 May 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • srspa77
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
     
    What's PO?
    23 May 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    Price objective, sorry. Anyone has a clue about the rally of GTAT late today? Volume was pretty high. Shorts are covering their positions?
    23 May 2012, 06:28 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    the market current today at 1046 says it all. fslr and cree are losing to gtat technology, its only a matter of time
    23 May 2012, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    Hey Furbo, you said you expected EPS of $2.5 for 2014 but i heard it was gonna be lower than todays $1.45. Are you sure on that estimate?
    23 May 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    listen I don't see why not. minus any super catastrophe in Europe they are on pace for $2 at minimum. 1.30 for this year, one of the worst years on record for solar and led business, where companies like WFR and FSLR are on the brink of going out of business and companies like CREE are struggling to compete with GTAT technology. they are beating them so bad with their premium sapphire that CREE is trying to grow in the led fixture business. 5 years from now Cree will be buying all their components for LEDS from GTAT.

     

    The first ever polysilicon production purchase in saudia arabian history was 50M of GTAT products. this is a country that wants to spend 109B in SOLAR in the very near future.

     

    they are increasing r&d expense by 50% over last year so when solar comes out of this downturn they can knock the socks off their competition with efficiency and performance. what kind of tech is WFR and FSLR going to develop when they are laying off workers and restructuring just to survive?

     

    GTAT has more than enough money to whether the storm and I expect them to start booking some orders in June. this stock has taken enough of a beating, I wish I had some equity in my house so I could double down here. money in the bank.
    23 May 2012, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    I just performed a DCF analysis on GTAT. I cant believe this.

     

    Based on ttm FCFE of $2.48 per share, next year growth of 21% , next 5 years growth of 11%, and last a discount rate of 12% (7% of risk premium), I'm getting GTAT is worth $30. Apply whatever safety margin you desire and we will still earn a lot of money.
    23 May 2012, 10:04 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    this is why i own a boatload of shares. my target price for end of 2013 is 20 bucks.
    23 May 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    I made a mistake, FCFE per share is giving me $5. Anyone can corroborate this?. Target price would go up to $60 in that case., don't know when though.
    23 May 2012, 10:28 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    Please dismiss my last comment. Turns out figures were accumulated. FCFE per share in 2011 was 2,85. Target price is 34. Sorry guys!
    23 May 2012, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • srspa77
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Shorts..
    23 May 2012, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • srspa77
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
     
    I plan to sell my shorts once it breaches $4.
    23 May 2012, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • jjjorgen
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    Furbo, glad to see you're hanging in here with us. Hopefully your wife wasn't to hard on you with the pps drop. ;-)
    24 May 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    This sounds like Furbo: http://bit.ly/KFHS4D
    25 May 2012, 12:27 AM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    not me. i was thinking about writing an article this weekend for seeking alpha.
    25 May 2012, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • srspa77
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
     
    Bounced to $4 today and I sold my shorts.
    25 May 2012, 03:53 AM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    Any comments on today's 8% rally?
    5 Jun 2012, 05:24 PM Reply Like
  • Furbonacci
    , contributor
    Comments (370) | Send Message
     
    its nice to see. china has lent out a bunch of money in the past 2 weeks. the ldk project announced yesterday was nice and jaso was another "those earnings were bad but its not the end of the world" = we will see more of this for time. im watching natgas - the higher it goes the better case for alternative fuels and gtat in general. nat gas is positioning itself to be the fuel of the the 21st century - prices need to go higher so alternatives can bypass it
    5 Jun 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Maverick86
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    What the heck just happened with FSLR?? (up 21%)
    12 Jun 2012, 09:46 PM Reply Like
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