Seeking Alpha

Initial Jobless Claims: 370K vs. 371K consensus (prior week revised to 372K from 370K)....

Initial Jobless Claims: 370K vs. 371K consensus (prior week revised to 372K from 370K). Continuing claims -29K to 3.26M.
Comments (21)
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    No, initial claims are not "trending" higher. The moving average, which smooths out sampling error, continues to move lower.
    17 May 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    The current administration's press hacks couldn't have written that any better themselves.
    17 May 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    david:

     

    I'm not making any politcal statement, and I loathe Obama, but the data is just the data. It irritates me when headline writers write misleading and erroneous headlines, regardless of what side of the issue I find myself.
    17 May 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    Fair enough, Tack. But it would be pretty nearly impossible for claims (and the headline rate) to *not* trend lower when as many people give up on looking for jobs and drop out of the data as have been. The participation rate is trending in the other direction.
    17 May 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    david:

     

    Sorry, but that line of reasoning doesn't apply to initial claims.
    17 May 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    Tack...as far as initial claims are concerned, I pay little if any attention to them other than to ridicule the constant "surprise" at having them go up (and the nearly constant revisions upward after the fact). Participation rate sucks...and has for quite some time. A whole wad of people ran past the end of their benefit limit on unemployment just recently, too, so they won't be in the continuing claims anymore. And that's not even getting into what seems to be an ongoing migration from unemployment benefits to disability benefits (something north of 300K last I saw). All that to say that, if this is a recovery, then you need a microscope to find it.
    17 May 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (13579) | Send Message
     
    david:

     

    Notwithstanding my irritation-provoked comment to begin this thread, my own feeling, often expressed, is that economies are driven by the circumstances and spending behavior of the people with jobs and/or money, so I honestly pay little attention to employment numbers, which I consider a huge lagging indicator. When, employment really gets heated up and the unemployment rate drops significantly, it will probably be time to sell, not buy.

     

    I pay scrupulous attention to corporate revenues and profits, foremost, and secondarily to industry trade data. If these keep expanding, all is well; if they reverse, then it's time to reallocate.
    17 May 2012, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • drrobcornell
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Here's a headline, Tack: More Americans are out of work now than 3 years ago - first president to leave with less than he inherited. Pathetic. Socialism has failed again. A little verbose, but you get my gist.
    17 May 2012, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • 12stones78
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    If you inherited 5 patients who were near death and had been improperly diagnosed and treated for several years prior to coming under your care, would you be at fault if 3 of those patients died?
    17 May 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6057) | Send Message
     
    You would be if you claimed or implied you could heal them with your superior medical knowledge. Then if they died, your claims would be proven false.
    17 May 2012, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    lol hooper - clearly stones is an amateur at this. Now, he has to go back to his polisci teacher to ask what went wrong when he tried to dazzle with his brilliance.
    17 May 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9854) | Send Message
     
    The 52 week m.a. tells us...ah never mind..I am keeping the information to myself...
    17 May 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • davidingeorgia
    , contributor
    Comments (2713) | Send Message
     
    I bet the 52 week moving average on participation rate doesn't tell you what you want to hear though, does it?
    17 May 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9854) | Send Message
     
    But it does tell me about recessions...please ignore...
    17 May 2012, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6057) | Send Message
     
    Not very encouraging. It would be much better to see something in the 300k range to give support that bank collateral would show signs of strengthening in the next few months. This number would indicate that malaise will be with us a while longer.
    17 May 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • detto
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Excellent numbers, America continues to roar!

     

    It is refreshing to see long term job creation after Bush's decade, which was a disaster!
    17 May 2012, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Please pass along whatever it is that you are smoking!!!
    17 May 2012, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • sean.parmelee
    , contributor
    Comments (790) | Send Message
     
    Don't feed the trolls, brewer.
    17 May 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • DOGS THAT BARK
    , contributor
    Comments (136) | Send Message
     
    Is simply amazing how polical views will effect the ability of common sense/reasoning.

     

    November 3, 2006:

     

    "The President [George W. Bush] has the worst jobs record since the Great Depression, and the economy is slowing due to the housing slump. The budget and trade deficits as well as public debt levels have all climbed to record levels," Pelosi said.

     

    The unemployment rate back in November 2006? 4.4 percent, “the lowest it had been in more than five years.”

     

    ...and now..We got the same folks who were rationalizing Pelosi/Dems in 06...now trying to convince us we are firing on all cylinders.

     

    Next they be writing articles on how to avoid emotions in investing. :)
    17 May 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • sean.parmelee
    , contributor
    Comments (790) | Send Message
     
    Unless "trends" can be inferred from two or three data points, IC data is still trending lower at the same rate it has been for years now. It's going to take until at least 2015 to get back to normal.
    17 May 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3531) | Send Message
     
    Well put sean and till then investing will be very tricky as you try to determine which investments will be the first beneficiaries of growth.
    17 May 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector