The dollar's been on a tear against all currencies since the election, with dollar/yen rising to ¥112.84 from about ¥103 just a couple of weeks ago. Its low for the year was roughly ¥100 hit a few times during the summer and early fall.
Yen traders have Trump all wrong, says UBS, predicting dollar/yen tumbling all the way to ¥98 towards the end of 2017.
Expectations for fiscal spending are overblown, says the bank's Toru Ibayashi, and instead protectionist policies will come first.
"The market has latched on to only the juicy bits of Trump’s policies, and wrapped them up with unreasonable euphoria, which we think is pretty much a misinterpretation,” he tells Bloomberg. "A market that’s been overbought on hope will quickly fall apart.”
UBS isn't a lone contrarian voice. Former Japanese finance chief Eisuke Sakakibara (aka "Mr. Yen") sees the yen strengthening to ¥90 within six months, and JPMorgan forecasts ¥99 by the end of next year.