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A contrarian signal if you ask Bill Lubby, over 1M put contracts have already been traded on the...

A contrarian signal if you ask Bill Lubby, over 1M put contracts have already been traded on the S&P today - nearly 2.5X the average and following 913K yesterday. Over the past couple of years the "rare instances" when put volume reached 1M typically coincided with bottoms in stocks.
Comments (17)
  • Oh please, We have to hit 1300 today to bounce for the faceplant ipo tomorrow.

     

    Get with the program.
    17 May 2012, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Yes, thank you for making my point!
    17 May 2012, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • I believe we might see a countertrend rally on the Facebook IPO tomorrow but it will ultimately fail and we are headed lower.
    17 May 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Totally agree
    17 May 2012, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • I believe we are still headed lower, small rally's here and there,but a downward spiral thru the Election.
    17 May 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • Earnings keep up a great place, but that is not the core problem in this economy. False hopes abound. One of these days, investors will wake up to the impasse in Washington and this gargantuan deficit we all facing. People are hurting out there... maybe not in D.C., but in a good many places around this wonderful country of ours... I fear the last to post by DettoTheSecond may be correct...
    17 May 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • We might see 1280 but we will bounce. Companies are making record profits. This is a bit ridiculous and is only happening because people still remember 2008/09 too much. Greek will remain in the Euro (I hate that idea but yes, it will), they will print more money everywhere, it is an election year, markets always correct and Wall Street always finds an excuse.

     

    17 May 2012, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • obviously you haven' t look at the history of past year's election data. Better subscribe to the Wealth Insider Alliance (AKA) Mad Hedge Fund Trader. Record profits after lower guidance so low an ant could jump over the bar... Please!!
    17 May 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Sure, like we saw in AAPL. COH. EMC. PRL. I could go on. Anyhow, congrats to your first comment.
    17 May 2012, 10:57 PM Reply Like
  • If you dance with the Elephants on Wall Street expect to get stomped on!
    17 May 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • Agree. Let them dance and stomp around while sitting silently hiding in a corner. When the time comes you sell your small amount and they won't notice.
    17 May 2012, 05:16 PM Reply Like
  • I have no idea at all what will exactly happen.

     

    The one thing I do 'know' is that historically, over the longer run, what does work pretty consistently is to buy the dips incrementally on weakness that has apparently slowed, especially at the bigger support areas but only up to your threshold of total inventory. Then, sell into strength, incrementally, gradually taking off inventory and harvesting profits.
    17 May 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • But, has it slowed, or are you going to get cut by trying to grab the falling knife?... The markets seems to be expecting a big default, just look at AIG, MET, and especially PRU.
    17 May 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Total equity Put to Call Ratio 1.45.
    Pretty much nearing the end of the sell off. In Rare cases does it go higher, like 4.0 in March 09 bottom.

     

    However, Vix Front Futures are expecting a BIG 98 point Drop or Rise in the SP this month. Europe is still in focus but FaceBook will overshadow the neg news starting a catalyst back upwards. ECB plays poker but will force resolution of Greece which again could be a big jump in SP as its perceived resolution. Run on banks is still a major problem of contagion but past indicators signal a Sell the VOL buy the Mkt... if you have the stonies like me. :)
    18 May 2012, 12:16 AM Reply Like
  • There is only one aspect that counts in the markets and that is emotion. Thee are many, many firms out there with great balance sheets, full order books , low debt and good profits. But their share prices get hit just as bad as the lesser quality stocks. Also there is a large number of U:S: Firms that have no connection to Greec in particular or even Europe in general and any further worsening there won´t affect them at all. The advantage is that these firms keep on paying out good dividends.

     

    I agree with Heywally - buy in the dips and a bit of patience to make profit. The only criteria is obviously to check the balance sheet, order book and areas of business. This type of company always bounce back when the market goes positive again.

     

    In other words, stay cool, keep your head and check the figures beforehand.There´s so much panic-mongering on the net and in the media. Look at the facts and take your own decisions - but leave emotion out of it!!
    18 May 2012, 04:49 AM Reply Like
  • Reports coming out of Greece that they have stopped making hummus and taramasalata due to their economic woes

     

    Sounds like a double dip recession to me….
    18 May 2012, 07:45 AM Reply Like
  • Oh please....

     

    "Over the past couple of years the "rare instances" when put volume reached 1M typically coincided with bottoms in stocks" is a fact, a stat, it may happen again this time, it may not. But it is based on history.

     

    Whatever else you think is just speculation. Your guess is as good as any one else's. Please, if you really know what's going to happen, you should be on your private island counting your money, not on a forum posting. Only when you admit that you really have no idea what is going to happen will you be able to make money consistently.
    21 May 2012, 03:21 AM Reply Like
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