No headway for Waddell & Reed despite earnings beat

• The Q4 results do not change Credit Suisse's Craig Siegenthaler's belief that Waddell & Reed (WDR -2.2%) is particularly at risk from the DOL's fiduciary rule and general trends in the traditional asset-management industry (high-to-low fee, active-to-passive).
• A key future risk, he says, is the loss of the company's proprietary share in its captive-broker-dealer channel - it's currently in the 70-80% range, but that could fall under 40% in the next five years as WDR opens up the channel.
• The firm may cut its dividend by the middle of the year to "right-size" the payout ratio to a normal industry range of 40-50%.
• Siegenthaler reiterates his Underperform rating and $16 price target (vs. current $17.65).