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The VIX (VXX +6.2%) posts its biggest jump in a month, but isn't anywhere near the sort of level...

The VIX (VXX +6.2%) posts its biggest jump in a month, but isn't anywhere near the sort of level associated with real fear in the market. The index currently resides around 23, but spent most of 2011's late summer and fall north of 30. We may need an S&P drop of 30-35 points in a day for the VIX to crack 30, says Michael Palmer.
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Comments (14)
  • Chuck
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Will "Fear" arrive after the Greek vote?
    Then if they put the "Leave the Euro" parties in power, then the dominos start to drop,.. Spain, Portugal, et al.
    30 May 2012, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • Hitesh Patel
    , contributor
    Comments (314) | Send Message
     
    the fear index has to reach the 30+ mark prior to the next june FOMC meeting for bernanke to turn on....sorry keep on the printing press
    30 May 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3085) | Send Message
     
    Almost sold out of my positions in OFF as markets have declined. Obviously some issues are baked in, though I expect more downside.
    30 May 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3085) | Send Message
     
    Update: sold completely out of OFF at more than 20% profit in under three months. Weird investment and not sure I would try this one again, but it did work as the prospectus suggested.
    1 Jun 2012, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • Third Eye Market Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (119) | Send Message
     
    Here is an interesting statistic. Since 1994, when SPY >=200 day MA, VIX >30 only 1.8% of the trading days but when SPY<200 MA, VIX>30 level 32.5% of the trading days. Since 2008, those numbers increased to 2.4% and 52.2% of the trading days, respectively. While SPY remains above its 200 day Moving Average, we can say the chance of VIX being >30 level is remote but jumps significantly when SPY breaks below 200 MA.
    30 May 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1734) | Send Message
     
    So is SPY currently < or > its 200 MDA?
    30 May 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Third Eye Market Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (119) | Send Message
     
    200 day MA for SPY is around 128, so currently above.
    30 May 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1734) | Send Message
     
    We broke our 200 MDA today, correct?
    1 Jun 2012, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1734) | Send Message
     
    But we are very close....closed at 131 and change today.
    30 May 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Third Eye Market Analyst
    , contributor
    Comments (119) | Send Message
     
    The more appropriate question is why are major US indices still above their 200-day moving averages? VIX is still below 25. With fears of bank runs, contagion in Europe, of China economy's hardlanding, of Japan's fiscal meltdown, of U.S. fiscal meltdown, etc...Either U.S. investors have every confidence that central bankers will ultimately step in or they are following herd mentality and will start dumping equities when everyone else does--200 day MA being a quantitative trigger.
    30 May 2012, 06:54 PM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1734) | Send Message
     
    I guess there's only one way to find out. The entire rally from 2009 was mainly fueled by Fed action....aka the market went ^ from inhaling fumes. Now, it's time to come back to reality...
    30 May 2012, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • barrry
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    Reality is coming and very soon, FED cannot keep printing more dollars even during an election year for fear of inflation. As for Europe I think Germany will beat everyone to the punch including Greece and exit the Eurozone first and take their cash with them, the U.K. had foreseen this coming 12 years ago!!!
    31 May 2012, 01:16 AM Reply Like
  • idkmybffjill
    , contributor
    Comments (1734) | Send Message
     
    Can someone who has knowledge of the EU and its origins explain to me what exactly the point of it was? The way I see it, the stronger countries (Germany) end up having to foot the bill for the weaker ones (no examples needed)....aka Greece wants to have Germany's borrowing costs, but in a real free market, if all these countries had their own currency, that would NEVER happen. So, why did Germany EVER agree to this? Can someone explain? I don't see what Germany gets out of the agreement.
    31 May 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4526) | Send Message
     
    There are two unions, the political union (27 nations) and the currency union (17 nations). For example, the UK belongs to the political union but not to the common currency.

     

    One of the things US based commentators miss frequently is that it is potentially possible to leave the currency union and not the political union.

     

    The political union is much older than the currency union, going back maybe as far as the late 1950s whereas the currency union stems from provisions in the Maastricht Treaty of 1992.

     

    Suggest you read relevant Wikipedia articles for more.
    http://bit.ly/LN5qrC
    http://bit.ly/oDbc8y
    31 May 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
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