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Initial Jobless Claims: 383K vs. 370K consensus (prior week revised to 373K from 370K)....

Initial Jobless Claims: 383K vs. 370K consensus (prior week revised to 373K from 370K). Continuing claims -36K to 3.24M.
Comments (19)
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2190) | Send Message
     
    Just sort of an ugly day for employment news.....
    31 May 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    52 week moving average of NSA jobless claims drops 721 to 387,726....

     

    Hint: worry when this turns up...
    31 May 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • BruceInKY
    , contributor
    Comments (412) | Send Message
     
    Waiting for bbro to apply the pro-Obama spin to the numbers.
    31 May 2012, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    I don't think he is so much pro-Barry as he is pro-Keynesian. The problem is that even an econ 101 student can see where we are in the business cycle and Keynesian economics simple cannot view 8% unemployment (if you believe that number) as the new norm for full employment.
    31 May 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    Please ignore the numbers...
    31 May 2012, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    I have other indicators...this is just one...with reasonable accuracy...
    31 May 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2190) | Send Message
     
    I don't think bbro is very political. He has his metrics for the way he invests. I think, in a reactionary market, the 52wk is way too slow. 4wk has turned up already. Coupled with the Layoff report and the ADP report things don't look petty. If June comes in the same then I think we can call a trend. The other big issue will be tomorrow with the participation rate, NILF vs growth of the size of workforce. If these numbers aren't favorable again, then a trend is probably forming.
    31 May 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9441) | Send Message
     
    The 52 week moving average is used to predict recessions...the stock
    market however is predicting a recession ( it seems) every year...other metrics obviously must be used if you want to trade...
    31 May 2012, 09:26 AM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    what does bbro stand for? big brother? I think it would be ever better to look at 2600 week average and worry when this goes up 20%!!!
    31 May 2012, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • Bill S. Friend
    , contributor
    Comments (711) | Send Message
     
    I don't think there has been enough positive employment numbers to consider it a trend!
    31 May 2012, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    They are eating faces in Florida....its better than Ipods....good economy...oh and by the way..its a political season...so these numbers are ALREADY faked....and this is all they get....
    31 May 2012, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1135) | Send Message
     
    From Hussman this week:

     

    http://bit.ly/Nj1RIO
    "We will undoubtedly have moments of promising news that will relieve economic and Euro-area concerns for brief periods of time. Part of the reason that the markets have been fairly complacent despite deterioration on these fronts is exactly the hope and expectation of investors for these transitory but unpredictable moments of relief. If one steps back from the trees to observe the forest, the reality of the situation is that Europe is already largely in recession, the global economy is slipping quickly toward the same outcome, and in my view, the U.S. is also entering a recession that will ultimately be dated as beginning in May or June of 2012 (i.e. now). The economic headwinds already in place are likely to make any meaningful budget progress virtually impossible in the Eurozone, and without meaningful budget progress, the likelihood of continued bailouts to peripheral European states is slim. So while short-lived bouts of hopeful enthusiasm are likely, the reality of the situation is much more challenging."
    31 May 2012, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5481) | Send Message
     
    It sure would be nice to see these numbers coming out in the 300k range. It would also be nice to see GDP in the 8% to 9% range, and unemployment in the 4% range. Clearly the gov managed economy folks have failed, and excuses about "it would have been worse" don't cut it, because you can always say that. What they can't say is, "our superior intellect delivered a robust economy".

     

    However, what you can count on will be more subsidies for the fnancial markets. Most likely it will come from the ECB. Deposit runs are real worry for a central bank. What needs to be watched will be indications as to when the ECB will become more accomodative. At some point, the ECB will have to let EU banks pledge more and more assets to get more and more advances. This should slow some of the capital flows from Europe, and stablize treasury rates for the US. 1.65 may be the new upper range for the 10 yr through the summer.
    31 May 2012, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    JH - It is even worse than "It could have been worse". Now they are using 'It would have worked it had not been for...hurricanes, tidal waves. earthquakes, Arab Spring, Europe, cold waves, heat waves, gas prices...etc.'
    31 May 2012, 10:17 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5481) | Send Message
     
    Success doesn't need to make excuses, and people who make excuses will never know success.
    31 May 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4263) | Send Message
     
    You forgot to mention the other usual suspects - the Republicans, the Tea Party, Bush....
    31 May 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • surfnspy
    , contributor
    Comments (415) | Send Message
     
    and Idi Amin
    31 May 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Morgan
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
    It is all Bush's fault!!
    31 May 2012, 11:28 AM Reply Like
  • K Haggs
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    The Claims were revised up 62 of the last 63 weeks which is something the empty suits on CNBC always ignore. Bottom line, the real UE rate is about 19% if it were calculated in the real world not the political one
    31 May 2012, 11:29 AM Reply Like
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