Seeking Alpha

George Soros' remarkable speech on the "political bubble" of the EU: "The (current) political...

George Soros' remarkable speech on the "political bubble" of the EU: "The (current) political dynamic makes the disintegration of the EU just as self-reinforcing as its creation has been ... (however) the likelihood is that the euro will survive because a breakup would be devastating not only for the periphery, but also for Germany." He gives the Germans 90 days to come around. Worth the full read.
Comments (111)
  • DianeLee
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    Almost laughable that Soros gives the Germans 90 days to come around, considering how well he's done advising the US. Germany appears to be one of the few to remember the old, old adage: when in a hole....stop digging. Good old basics. But always remember who Soros actually is.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • D_Virginia
    , contributor
    Comments (2280) | Send Message
     
    > But always remember who Soros actually is.

     

    And who is he? Your conspiracy theorism is showing....
    3 Jun 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • Leftfield
    , contributor
    Comments (3903) | Send Message
     
    "But always remember who Soros actually is." Yes, let's. He is the world's leading elitist socialist (is there a difference?) who made his fortune shorting the British Pound in the early 1990's.

     

    They will always require us, using force if necessary, to do as they say, not as they do.
    3 Jun 2012, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • DianeLee
    , contributor
    Comments (360) | Send Message
     
    Not a conspiracy theory at all, DV. He's an outspoken and heavy backer of Obama Liberalism.
    3 Jun 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    He is a crony capitalist. He believes in benefits for the few at the top with centralized planning for everyone else - in other words, rationing for the common folk. Again, why are you an investor if you believe in central planning?
    3 Jun 2012, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • billddrummer
    , contributor
    Comments (1739) | Send Message
     
    he made another fortune shorting the American mortgage industry.
    3 Jun 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    Libertarians hate Soros and fabricate all sorts of nonsense about him because he's a living contradiction of their religion of libertarianism. Like most religious fanatics, libertarian hatred and denial of reality knows no bounds.
    3 Jun 2012, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • phxcrane
    , contributor
    Comments (482) | Send Message
     
    I always thought liberalism was a religion.
    3 Jun 2012, 07:47 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    Libertarianism isn't a religion. Libertarians believe in freedom for all, without special benefits for the few. I have no problem with Soros investing money and producing more wealth, however, I have a problem with him investing in things such as Brazilian oil production while at the same time funding the left in American poltics - a side which routinely resists most, if not all opportunities at increasing oil production in America.

     

    Again, he is a crony capitalist. If he wasn't a crony, and if he was truly an across-the-board capitalist for all, he wouldn't be so heavily involved in funding MoveOn.org and any other off-shoot of that organization.
    3 Jun 2012, 08:29 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    'Liberalism' now stands as a code word for centralized planning for the masses, with special privelages for the few. The U.N. could be classified as a modern 'liberal' organization. So too, could both Democratic and Republican parties in America. In Canada, all 4 parties - Conservative, Liberal, New Democratic and Bloc Quebecois - stand for the crony style of government now seen as acceptable throughout the world.

     

    I live in a country (Canada), where the leaders:

     

    1) Spent 1.3 billion dollars to hold two economic meetings
    2) Allocated $3 Billion for healthcare in Africa
    3) Printed $75 Billion dollars of notes to the banks
    4) And promised another $200 Billion dollars down-the-road to those banks
    5) Sold government debt to those same banks, the banks using the printed money to 'buy' such weak investment vehicles

     

    Y.E.T.,

     

    The Canadian government continues to make cuts to public healthcare (15% of Canadians are waiting to get a PCP)

     

    A.N.D.

     

    the same government continues to prevent nearly all forms of private medical care opportunities for the patients that have to go without because of the artificially imposed shortages in the public system.

     

    It doesn't matter which party is in power, now or in the future, because they all behave in the same self-preservationist mode.
    3 Jun 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Despite the apparent resistance to increasing oil production, the industry has actually managed to have more rigs in operation at this point in time, than at any time in the past. I suspect investors who base their decisions on industries, instead of on politics, tend to do better in the long run.
    3 Jun 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10690) | Send Message
     
    No....per Michael Savage...Liberalism is a Mental Disorder.
    3 Jun 2012, 11:49 PM Reply Like
  • HackFab
    , contributor
    Comments (1233) | Send Message
     
    "The Canadian government continues to make cuts to public healthcare (15% of Canadians are waiting to get a PCP)

     

    the same government continues to prevent nearly all forms of private medical care opportunities for the patients that have to go without because of the artificially imposed shortages in the public system."

     

    Geeeez... And this is one of the 'darlings' of Gubment healthcare systems, that we in the USA, keep getting shoved upon us.

     

    No thanks.
    4 Jun 2012, 05:35 AM Reply Like
  • Jtkchen
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Diane, it doesn't sound like you read the transcript.
    4 Jun 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (1588) | Send Message
     
    Regardless of what one things of Soros' politics, this speech is definitely worth a read, for many reasons. I respectfully advise against a knee-jerk "I don't care what that socialist has to say" approach, as the first half of the speech is non-political and good food for thought for any investor.

     

    That said, the speech (like the Euro itself) has some crucial fundamental flaws. It is based upon the premise that "the Euro" must be saved, at any cost. While I agree that addressing the Euro crisis requires much bolder thinking and action than has been displayed to date, the speech fails to It does not contemplate some fundamental re-thinks on: 1) is a common currency even a wise thing to put in place when the political union isn't there; 2) if a common currency is to stay in place, do the conditions of membership need to be changed & enforced (which probably implies one or more countries being kicked out in short order), 3) how all the massive debt is going to be managed, particularly if the pro growth prescriptions lead to continued (and probably larger) deficits for the foreseeable future, especially in light of 4) practically no credible sign that ANY country is going to fundamentally address (in magnitudes that actually matter) their spending and lack of competitiveness in ANY time frame (short, medium, or long term).

     

    And lastly, who the heck would call an event a "Festival of Economics"? :-)
    3 Jun 2012, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • The Last Boomer
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    It is very difficult for me to figure out the consequences of a disorderly Euro breakup. It looms much larger than Lehman. We are not talking about one bank here but an entire continent with an economy bigger than that of the US. The scenario that Soros thinks is the most probable (the periphery permanently depressed as some kind of German hinterland) is the most dangerous politically. The anti-German sentiment is picking up in southern Europe. One needs only look at the European history in the 20th century to understand how dangerous this scenario is.
    3 Jun 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • CautiousInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (3062) | Send Message
     
    Interesting comments Tricky.

     

    From the very outset, Martin Feldstein and others believed the design of the euro was deeply flawed because of cultural differences, lack of labor mobility, lack of a common language and rigid labor markets at the state level. Had he known more about systemic political corruption and tax evasion, his doubts would have increased.

     

    Soros' prescriptions, which are shared by many, largely call for channeling more money through some combination of printing, more flexible lending and fiscal consolidation............ transfer of wealth from those who work and prosper to those who don't. Specifically, many want to see the ESM given a banking license; the EFSF the ability to lend directly to troubled banks so that host sovereigns are not stuck with the bill; the ECB to buy bonds in the primary market; and a host of other measures including supra national deposit insurance.

     

    This would doubtless buy time but if the underlying pathologies go unaddressed its simply a matter of time before the troubles of the EMU are revisited, raising the obvious question of when are we going to address the real imbalances that create divergent competitiveness, current account imbalances, budget deficits and rising sovereign interest rates that threaten both the nation state and national banking systems. The financial crisis reflects a deeper economic crisis stemming from the hopelessly sclerotic economies plaguing the EMU.

     

    Unless leaders are able to reduce government footprints, reduce regulations and red tape, reduce the influence of unions and cartels, eliminate pervasive corruption it’s rather hopeless and they will always be inflicted with dysfunctional economies incapable of anything more than running deficits and accumulating debt. At a national level, many economies are broken.

     

    Taking this to be the case, Germany should steel itself for a dramatic restructuring of the EMU or resign itself to permanent fiscal transfers to support the less productive at the expense of those who produce.
    3 Jun 2012, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Just the mention of his name gets people foaming at the mouth. It would surprise me if some of the people commenting here bothered to read at all. Whatever his political inclination, he has been a successful investor. Seeking Alpha is an investment website, not a political sounding board.

     

    "Among other things, I developed a model of a boom-bust process or bubble which is endogenous to financial markets, not the result of external shocks. According to my theory, financial bubbles are not a purely psychological phenomenon. They have two components: a trend that prevails in reality and a misinterpretation of that trend. A bubble can develop when the feedback is initially positive in the sense that both the trend and its biased interpretation are mutually reinforced. Eventually the gap between the trend and its biased interpretation grows so wide that it becomes unsustainable. After a twilight period both the bias and the trend are reversed and reinforce each other in the opposite direction. Bubbles are usually asymmetric in shape: booms develop slowly but the bust tends to be sudden and devastating. That is due to the use of leverage: price declines precipitate the forced liquidation of leveraged positions."

     

    Whether you hate the guy or not, his concept on market bubbles is tough to argue against. As investors we can learn from the investment directions that Soros takes. Whether we choose to copy his ideas, or bet against him, is another matter.
    3 Jun 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Try this research paper from UBS. Hopefully one of these links works.

     

    http://scr.bi/M0XxL6

     

    The second link has a link in it to a PDF of the research paper.

     

    http://bit.ly/KtYUqZ

     

    This came out months ago, but is one of the best analysis I have seen so far.
    3 Jun 2012, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    In effect the ECB would become more like the Federal Reserve. My feeling is that if catastrophic failures on both sides of the Atlantic had been allowed to happen, the short impact would have been worse, but we might now see some actual growth at a better rate than where we are now stuck. I think the real worry was a major widespread bank run, completely collapsing economies, which could easily have led to massive civil unrest. Unfortunately the idea of a soft landing was ill conceived. To add to the problems, throwing small amounts of spending at the problem in timed intervals, while perhaps more politically palatable, has instead prolonged recovery. The further downside to all these actions is that once this path was chosen, it needs to be walked through to completion. I don't particularly like any of the actions or choices made so far, but this is where we are now.
    3 Jun 2012, 04:04 PM Reply Like
  • Richard93
    , contributor
    Comments (817) | Send Message
     
    Hey guys and gals its even worse than this the reason is that so many young people are not working this could turn into a hot age war. Europe has an older population that are using huge amounts of $ . If this keeps up I expect more age related crime waves a cross Europe. Especially since the older generations have the power and the young do not.
    3 Jun 2012, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • The Last Boomer
    , contributor
    Comments (991) | Send Message
     
    Herr Hansa,
    thanks for the links. Very informative.
    4 Jun 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • losbronces
    , contributor
    Comments (787) | Send Message
     
    Be careful with following his "investment advice." He has been known to talk one way while investing another way (gold comes to mind quickly). There have been other investments that he has talked down while accumulating--even after he has to publish his holdings for the quarter. And like all investment managers, he talks up his holdings when he is looking to sell.

     

    These behaviors (talk down while accumulating, talk up while selling) apply to many other fund managers as well. You can't trust them, so don't.
    9 Jun 2012, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Shaun Connell
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    He's not a socialist, he's a believer in the "open society" concept. He's naive, not evil. There's a difference.

     

    People who hate him generally have no idea what his views are on reflexivity, which is to say that people generally have no idea about anything when it comes to the man.

     

    George Soros is politically opposite of me, but that doesn't mean I'll randomly demonize him.
    3 Jun 2012, 10:10 AM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    You must be joking. Soros became a billionaire from nothing and you call him naive. Soros knows exactly what he is saying. I assume that he has some trades on that would benefit from what he is saying, at least that is the idea. When MF Global collapsed, Soros bought their portfolio of European bonds. Then he was talking how Europe should do this and that ... he just wanted his bonds to go up in value and they did. Maybe he still has some Italian and Spanish bonds or perhaps something else. You can never trust Soros. He only says things that would benefit him financially.
    3 Jun 2012, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8910) | Send Message
     
    winningtrader
    Spot on. You can bet the house that Soros has a trade on the will benefit from his "free advice".
    3 Jun 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    Most Americans, Canadians, Britans etc. believe in socialism. Socialism means centralized planning which does not constitute 50%+ of GDP, but is greater than 10%. Communism means centralized planning which does constitute 50%+ of GDP. Capitalism is when centralized planning is minimal - no more than 10% of GDP.

     

    America = already socialist country
    Canada = already communist country
    Great Britain = already communist country
    3 Jun 2012, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • r0364
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Government spending in the US is 42% of the economy including state and local spending and the healthcare sector is around 16% which is heavily state controlled. That gives us around 58% government controlled putting the US in the already communist category.
    3 Jun 2012, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • daro
    , contributor
    Comments (1678) | Send Message
     
    you are substantially correct and it is strange and incredible that so many presume that we are not a socialistic country.
    3 Jun 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Jeremy Johnson, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Personally I think he has very little idea what is going on at his family office. His comments on their activities in many areas seem to mischaracterize what they are actually doing when compared to public information.
    3 Jun 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • bearfund
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    You are free to define words and use them however you like, but these definitions are arbitrary and significantly different from both common usage and generally accepted economics terminology. The way most people use the terms, socialism is any economic system in which a large portion of the capital base is commonly owned, typically by the government, and Communism is a political system that features socialism and central planning as key economic planks. In neither case is the fraction of GDP consumed by the central government a relevant consideration; indeed, in a socialist system it is fairly meaningless. It's also worth noting that socialism is not a point but a spectrum. The larger the share of capital base held in common, and the more important the parts of the capital base held in common, the more socialist an economy is. In every economy there are some productive assets held in common, so any declaration of a crisp boundary between socialism and capitalism is arbitrary.

     

    As for what people want, it's pretty obvious: everyone wants a free lunch. Many of the problems we face right now are the result of too many people being allowed or encouraged by politicians to believe they can have one, or worse still that they're entitled to it. Soros's speech actually recognises this, but as one of the politically-motivated liars he demands that only the productive, the successful, and the prudent stop lying to themselves about getting something for nothing. The weak, the useless, and the profligate are encouraged to continue believing in their right to a free lunch. In other words, the Germans must accept the need to relinquish their savings to the Greeks, Spanish, and Italians in one form or another in order to preserve their ability to produce and export, while the Greeks, Spanish, and Italians need do nothing except spend the Germans' money on whatever they like. This is a very popular mainstream view, and while Soros has a fancy-sounding set of underpinnings to justify it, it's really just the same old tripe. The insightful portions of the speech were in the descriptive background, and it was worth reading for that. The prescriptive portion is, in its essence, the same garbage you can get from any stoned sophomore on your local college campus. If you read carefully, you'll see that there's no real connection between the two.
    3 Jun 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Roxieanne
    , contributor
    Comments (779) | Send Message
     
    Just love it when writers claim that "most" of anything is the fact or truth.

     

    Let's continue with the thought "most'------it is fair to say that 'most' Americans have been deceived by the recent 4 years of socialists manipulation of America beginning with the Executive office.

     

    Time to say sayonara , goodbye, aloha to Mr. Obama and his socialism-------supported by Mr. Soros. Crony socialism for sure.
    3 Jun 2012, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8910) | Send Message
     
    Jeremy
    I think you just wrote the definition of a liar.
    3 Jun 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    A suppose a funny way to extend that would be to claim that Somalia is the best place in the world for free enterprise. ;-)

     

    Perhaps a return to feudalism is in order. Let the ruling class rule, and if they want to hand any crumbs to the commoners, that's up to them. I'm just waiting to hear some modern day politician say his version of "let them eat cake". ;-)
    3 Jun 2012, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • bearfund
    , contributor
    Comments (1534) | Send Message
     
    'I'm just waiting to hear some modern day politician say his version of "let them eat cake".'

     

    They say it every day. What I'm waiting for is a repeat of what followed.
    3 Jun 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Jeremy Johnson, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Hah. Far be it from me to defend some public figure! I'll let him do it himself if he feels the need.

     

    I think he just doesn't really know. He gets asked about some rumored position of his family office where the questioner doesn't have all the facts and it seems like he just doesn't know what the position is they are referring to in any detail. I think his days of being a position trader are over and he has moved on.
    3 Jun 2012, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    No nation ever won a war by being 100% capitalistic. Seriously, shall we outsource our defense industry to China and Russia for the sake of ideological purity?
    3 Jun 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Of course, he can't say that the Germans should bailout whoever in order for his trades to work, so he typically says that it is for the good of the world. That way it sounds much better. I think that he is one of the worst ones out there in terms of talking his positions but he is certainly not the only one. This is why you can't trust any of the so called gurus. You need to think for yourself and make up your own mind rather than sheepishly follow other people.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    ... target is to build the next Soviet Union it seems. Getting there fast.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Wow, you sound really naive. Remember, that is his family office, not client money but HIS own money. You mean he has no idea what is going on with that. He is not that stupid. What you are saying sounds like a joke.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8910) | Send Message
     
    Jeremy
    " I think he just doesn't really know."

     

    You sound really nieve.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    "... target is to build the next Soviet Union it seems. Getting there fast"

     

    The Tea Party is leading the charge. The Tea Party just passed a gigantic deficit spending bill all on outdated military products that the Pentagon says it doesn't want and doesn't need. Inserted into that bill is a Tea Party rider by two Congressmen from Texas that would empower the federal gov't to propagandize it's own citizens. Currently, the federal gov't is only allowed to run propaganda campaigns against foreign nations. But now the Tea Party wants to propagandize U.S. citizens as well. Indeed it does appear that the Tea Party's goal is to turn DC into the Kremlin.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:50 PM Reply Like
  • Jeremy Johnson, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (789) | Send Message
     
    Let's not fling mud here. I am just reporting what I have seen of him in interviews. It isn't that hard to be detached from your financial affairs when you reach a certain level of wealth and age. I think he is much more concerned with politics and policy now than the make up of his portfolio. Still, he knows the broad outlines of what is going on. If you asked him if he owned XYZ company and what the thesis was, I don't think he would know. Similar to the MF Global debt position, when he was asked about it, he answered in way that made it sound like he didn't know exactly what was purchased. Neither the precise countries nor the maturities. He wasn't trying to deflect the question, he just answered it in a way that made it sound like he didn't know.

     

    And it's a not a question of stupid, it is a question of disinterestedness.
    3 Jun 2012, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    SD

     

    Thanks for the obligatory counter propaganda to alleged propaganda and firm demonization of the alleged demons. It is good we have become a nation of high ideals and this endless tennis game goes on and on between twins separated at birth.

     

    Centralized control by any political party or persons is closer to the USSR and other regimes regardless of the rationale. Every politician wants power whether they admit it or not which is why they are in politics and why we should not trust any of them.

     

    The true measure of where we stand is the fact that everyone looks to WDC for all solutions. And of course governments at all levels are sucking from the economy and changing the vernacular what freedom means and that the government "deserves" economic largesse.
    3 Jun 2012, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    TVP, facts really bother you that much? That the T-frosh pushed for and passed the big deficit spending bill is fact. That the spending is on obsolete weaponry that the Pentagon doesn't want or need is fact. (When asked about this, Republican leadership replied that this deficit spending on obsolete weaponry would create jobs and was therefore good.) That the TP reps in the House inserted a rider to allow the gov't to propagandize its own citizens is fact. To me, that looks a lot like the TP (or their sponsors) are eager to turn the U.S. into something very much like the former Soviet regime.
    3 Jun 2012, 07:32 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    Somalia, I suspect, doesn't impose a 'rule of law' of any sorts.
    3 Jun 2012, 08:59 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    China and Russia are even more centralized than we are. They wouldn't be able to make the best use of resources in regards to military production.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Most people believe in socialism that takes from someone else and gives to them. As long as they believe that they can be fooled because they are actually giving up something too. Namely freedom and dignity.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely no government intervention in Somalia. You can own any guns you want and do any business you want. Complete and unhindered business environment. ;-)
    3 Jun 2012, 09:01 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    SDNS - You only seem to be bothered by right-side spending. I am bothered by spending from both sides. You are a cheerleader for the left - put down your pom-poms please.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:02 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    SD

     

    I think you missed the thrust of what I was saying. I don't care where the policy comes from as I don't trust any politician farther than I can throw them. Centralized programs are really about centralized power and that is the USSR redux.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:04 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    LOL...you completely missed the point (and the joke), kitty.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    PT, you are mistaken about me and what I support. See there how your bias clouds your ability to accept reality? In your mind, anyone who doesn't mindlessly echo your received doctrine is an evil enemy.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    You sarcastically suggested Russian and Chinese help. I pointed out the reality of it all.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    TVP, you yourself are actually a huge supporter of federal gov't -- as long as it's bailing out banks, that is. You said so yourself -- bail out banks from the general fund. As long as it's socialism for the banks, you're in favor of it.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    SD

     

    OK I will respond to your half ass charges.

     

    First if you find any comment from me that says "bail out banks from the general fund" then I will say you are a Bo Derek 10! That will not happen for obvious reaons and I don't even know what you mean by the "general fund."

     

    Banks failed by the boat load in the past 4 years in case you missed it. The banks that did receive TARP have all paid it back in case you missed that too. And AIG is not a bank in case you missed that.

     

    Boring!!!
    3 Jun 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    " if you find any comment from me that says "bail out banks from the general fund":
    http://bit.ly/KDyJN1

     

    I'm not railing against banks nor against TARP nor confusing AIG with a bank. That's just you throwing out as many red herrings as you can think of.

     

    Please spare me your juvenile Bo Derek 10 comment. Makes me go EEEWW just thinking about it.
    3 Jun 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    You could be so lucky to be a Bo Derek 10!

     

    I used quotation marks for a reason as that quote I have not made. You reconstructed a comment of mind and tried to pass it off as a quote. Very underhanded.
    4 Jun 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    The 'government' in Somalia is the gangs that control all the 'regular' people. Somalians don't have freedom as you suggest they do.
    4 Jun 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    It's a bad sign when you lose your sense of humor. Best of luck to you with your future and your investments.
    4 Jun 2012, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    TVP, You are saying that if you didn't use the exact words in the exact order as what you put in quotations, then it doesn't count? If so, you are the one who is being underhanded because you did indeed say that TBTF banks should be bailed out as needed using the general fund.
    7 Jun 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    SD

     

    You must be paid to be argumentative on SA because you really try hard to argue but not understand.
    7 Jun 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    TVP, you need a mirror. With your fixation on making rules about how your own statements don't count unless you used a set combination of words in a specific order, it's quite clear that you're the one who's looking for ways to argue. As for understanding you, unfortunately, I already understand you all too well ;-)
    7 Jun 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    SD

     

    OK you really need direct feedback. You are argumentative to a fault, petty and juvenile. You use quotation marks incorrectly which is a misrepresentation and then scramble to rationalize it. Your main focus is just arguing ad nausea like some political hack.

     

    Just go away I am not interested in anything about you or from you. That is why I am not trying to explain anything. Is that clear enough to get through your thick head?
    7 Jun 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    TVP, you're projecting. You're the one rationalizing. You said banks should be bailed out from the general fund and instead of admitting it, or even clarifying it (as an adult would do), you try to hide that fact. I'm not using any quotation marks at all here so your assertion that I'm misusing them is complete fabrication. Instead I'm providing a link to your own statement. Here it is again: http://bit.ly/KDyJN1 When unable to respond to issues or to points raised, you become belligerent and resort to personal attacks. If that's not being argumentative to a fault, I don't know what is. Your resort to sexual aggression shows the level of your mentality and the depths of your belligerence.
    8 Jun 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Did not realize I was sexy! Thank you.
    8 Jun 2012, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • Windsun33
    , contributor
    Comments (4306) | Send Message
     
    Soro's premise is wrong to begin with. I don't think anyone is predicting the "breakup of the EU". The extreme losers (that never should have been in) dropping out, such as Greece, does not constitute a breakup.
    3 Jun 2012, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    If Greece leaves the EUR, that would be good for the EUR long term. I think Greece will exit or at least start a parallel currency, which they would need to pay bills locally as EUR's will be hard to earn and Greece really has no economy at all - worse than most of Africa really.
    The main problem in Europe is not that Greece or Portugal are weak. They have always been like that. The problem is the weakness of the banking sector in the core countries and the high leverage of all banks in Europe. This is what Europe needs to address somehow, while governments should be left to fend for themselves. Basically, the Europeans need to strengthen their banks and NOT allow banks to lend to any governments. That will solve the deficit problem pretty quickly which is good because the deficit spending is all complete waste.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • Aristiphones
    , contributor
    Comments (1327) | Send Message
     
    90 days? I'd give them 90 minutes. Of course "George Soros would be out billions" if that happened.
    3 Jun 2012, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • Chandragupta
    , contributor
    Comments (240) | Send Message
     
    The flaws of the Euro are apparent. Europe has to go the full distance and establish a fiscal and political union or abandon the common currency altogether. There is no other permanent solution.
    3 Jun 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    I believe his point was made quite clearly at the very beginning about Newtonion Economics. Economists are at a true threshold here with the realization that the science of economics is not the science of physics. Whether it is socialist or capitalist economics, it is, as E.F.Schumacher once said "a derived body of thought". As far as his three month time window is concerned? He's probably right. In order to avoid that balance of payments crisis, there needs to be political stability. Euro deposit insurance? It would only lead to this happening all over again if proper banking reforms were not put into the law books over there. The Schengen Treaty allows an exit strategy for the Union but not the Euro, so I just can't see Germany spending the remainder of the century in court screaming for their 1 trillion Euros back.
    3 Jun 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    Economics is not a science and economists are not scientists. Economists are basically the people that in a clever and nice way tell the world that the politicians are doing the right thing and should continue doing more of the same. That is what economists are for and that has nothing to do with science. Basically, most of them are just political cheerleaders.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:47 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Nice summary of the first few paragraphs of Soros' speach.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    winning

     

    Actually Soros has a problem with all Social Sciences that he outlines in The Alchemy of Finance. From there he launches into his theory of Reflexivity.

     

    Not all economists are endorsing politicians but I would ask all of them who gives them their paycheck as that tells me a lot about what I will hear next. Corporate economists really try to get to the truth of what is happening as they need to help give the company direction and it falls on their head if they are wrong. Many other economists are way too far into politics.
    3 Jun 2012, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • Origa
    , contributor
    Comments (564) | Send Message
     
    George Soros is a writer selling books. His article excludes US policy toward EU and fails to explain the wide range of US issues affecting EU jobs, stock market and overall economy.

     

    EU, was created to prevent future wars in Europe, he is making the case about a superior Germany toward countries like Great Britain, France and Spain.

     

    Any major geo political change in EU, must reflect on Federal policy in the US.
    This is not likely to happen.
    3 Jun 2012, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • SA_Member_445445
    , contributor
    Comments (230) | Send Message
     
    George is talking his book again, something every good promoter does. That would be the thought-provoking action.
    The German people are thinking, and increasingly, not buying it: The reaction in this Reflexivity model will be when they dump Merkel and insist on a new deal that doesn't always end with the German worker subsidizing the rest of Europe.
    The result will be messy. Bankers will declare Armageddon..Again. Remember Hank Paulsen's ultimatum? Basically, 'Hand over the taxpayer's cash or God help us all.'
    After four years of that can kicking exercise, the results are in: The bankers are better, and the savers are busted..And the paper they hung is still there, trillions in derivatives floating in FASB suspension fantasy land.
    The politician's, (and in this case, promoter's) fix proposal is always the same: Spend more money now: Yours.

     

    No politician in Europe can hold onto office talking the truth: Too much spending by too many for too long.

     

    The bills are due.
    3 Jun 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2898) | Send Message
     
    Savers in the US are a distinct minority, that's why they will rescue debtor and equity holders first.
    4 Jun 2012, 03:05 AM Reply Like
  • Angel Martin
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    ok so the eurozone has only 90 days to live unless the eurocracy can stir themselves to rapid action.

     

    given that they are trying to get ratification of the ESM by july 9, when this was hyped as the cure-all two years ago... !
    http://bloom.bg/KYrGO0

     

    i'd say they are not going to make it ...
    3 Jun 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2953) | Send Message
     
    George Soros has flip-flopped on his predictions for the future of the euro currency in the past. His generally bearish long-term forecast has been wrong so far (from his last 1999 prediction).

     

    ---
    "The financier George Soros has forecast that the euro is destined to be a weak currency - contrary to the confidence in Europe just 10 weeks ago that it could challenge the dollar on the foreign exchanges."

     

    -USA Today, 10 March 1999
    ---
    How has the euro done in the long term since Soros' bearish long-term call in 1999? For most of the time period since 1999, the Euro has been stronger than when Soros made his bearish call. In the following chart, a declining line means a strengthening Euro against the dollar:

     

    http://bit.ly/LqDLtO
    3 Jun 2012, 02:34 PM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2898) | Send Message
     
    From March 1999 until 2001, Euro went down almost 30% vs the USD.

     

    Speculators heading his advice back then would have made tons of money, and they had a whole year time to lock in their profits.
    4 Jun 2012, 03:09 AM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2953) | Send Message
     
    No, they would have stayed with the Euro until they lost money, thinking the declines were a correction. Hindsight is 20/20.
    4 Jun 2012, 05:59 AM Reply Like
  • klarsolo
    , contributor
    Comments (706) | Send Message
     
    I guess I'm the only person here who actually read the speech. Everybody else seems to get all puffed up at the mere mention of his name, but I think he's pretty much spot on with what he says.
    3 Jun 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • Terry330
    , contributor
    Comments (870) | Send Message
     
    George Soros is more believable than Mitt Romney who preaches that the main problem in US is that the wealthy don't have enough money in there offshore bank accounts,and working middle-class has tooo much monthly income.
    3 Jun 2012, 03:24 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8910) | Send Message
     
    I was waiting for an inane comment from you to appear.
    You always add such intelligence to the thread. Please keep up the brilliant writing as it educates the rest of so highly.
    3 Jun 2012, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    Funny, wyo, that I've never seen you make a similar comment on posts about how Obama is a muslim or was born in Kenya. Is that because you're a birther...is that your idea of intelligence?
    3 Jun 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (8910) | Send Message
     
    SanDiego

     

    Try going in the water. It will cooool you off.
    I was complimenting Terry330.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • coddy0
    , contributor
    Comments (1182) | Send Message
     
    wyostocks
    ======================...
    SanDiego

     

    Try going in the water. It will cooool you off.
    I was complimenting Terry330.
    ======================...
    Be careful.
    Who knows how Terry330 looks when she puts on herself a hat and a pair of dark glasses
    3 Jun 2012, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    If American spies whom operate undercover in foreign lands can get fake documents with the help of the U.S. secret service, what would make it too difficult for Obama to get a hold of such needed documents?

     

    When John McCain had his eligibility status questioned by the left in regards to him being born on a military base in Panama, he produced his long-form birth certificate immediately. When Obama had the same questions raised about him, it took him 2 years into the White House to do the same.

     

    How come I had to show more proof of birth origin in obtaining a passport to cross the Canadian/U.S. border than your President did when he took the Oval Office, especially since he was/is in control of your military and all it's firepower, not to mention the now revealed 'kill list'?

     

    I hate him because he is a central planner, not because of the birth issue, but it is reaonsable to doubt his birth in America, given all the information that has come to light.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10690) | Send Message
     
    Terry....I'm sure you could'nt come up with a quote on either of those two items if you life depended on it.....

     

    So....I guess if it makes you feel better. Like so many others, I suspect you don't really know a darn thing about Romney.....except he's from the other side.
    4 Jun 2012, 01:13 PM Reply Like
  • David R.(Canada)
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    I see! So, this mess is all due to the German's doing all the wrong things! (they are in fact, the only ones doing the right things).
    Soros probably has a bet, knowing as much about him as I do, on Germany going down the toilet just like the rest of Europe.
    Germany should separate from the Eurozone and take with them any others that WILL abide by strict economic rules.
    Then let the chips fall where they may!
    3 Jun 2012, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    Anyone who trusts anything Soros says had better check their wallet and also hear his vision of nirvana before signing on to follow him. His first loyalty is to himself and he has made his fortune over many decades analyzing stupid economic decisions by politicians and leverage those decisions for his own enrichment. A public servant with altruistic motives he is not.

     

    Put another way he is good at macro analysis but what he tells the public may or may not reflect what he believes should be done but rather what he wants to see done so he continues to be seen as the guru at the top of the mountain and/or advantage his investments He is the wrong guy to be a messenger for anything even though he may speak some or a lot of truth at times.
    3 Jun 2012, 04:03 PM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9973) | Send Message
     
    Such heresy!! Soros, a private sector individual who has been wildly successful, derided by another pro private sector individual who views the private sector as the holy grail of everything. But then in the same breath implies that Soros is self serving and furthering his own personal gains and personal advantage.
    3 Jun 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • TomasViewPoint
    , contributor
    Comments (4845) | Send Message
     
    UI

     

    You miss the point and confuse the roles. Soros acts like a public figure when he gives out advices and money to governments and PAC's. He may or may not be sincere in that effort and you will never know because he also has material private interests that he manages against those public actions.

     

    You can sort out when he is really sincere or not.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (2011) | Send Message
     
    Soros trades political influence for economic information and influence. He is not a private sector participant as is TomasViewPoint. He is a crony.
    3 Jun 2012, 09:33 PM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2953) | Send Message
     
    When Greece was admitted into the Euro Union in 2001, my first thought was "Oops--There goes the neighborhood." (I'm referring to Greek economics, not the Greek people.)

     

    My second thought was that perhaps Germans accepted the Greek admission to the EU because they were tired of the cost and inconvenience of exchanging currency on their annual vacations to the Greek islands.

     

    It looks like those quick and easy vacations to Greece ended up costing the Germans a fortune. Apparently the Germans realize this and are getting retribution in the best way they know how:

     

    "Revenue from German tourists declined 61 percent in February (year over year)..."
    3 Jun 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    90 days puts us at the eve of elections in Germany.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:04 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
     
    I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. It is a big Train with a huge search light! Bye Bye...... Auvoir....
    3 Jun 2012, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    TVP is right. It is impossible to tell exactly what someone else is thinking. Soros doesn't exactly leave a legacy of trust behind him wherever he goes, but these are truly Global markets nowdays and Europe is in really big trouble. Letting the chips fall where they may wouldn't solve the problem either David R. It really doesn't help when people plaster offensive posters of Merkel all over Greece and the hard working taxpayer in Germany is looking at all of this and thinking that they would just as soon like to see that Wall go back up, forego their export market and revert to the D.Mark once again. Who is going to blink first?
    3 Jun 2012, 05:10 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/LX62rg

     

    Trichet not long before he left the ECB, responding to a question suggesting a return to the GDM. I'm German, yet I found his answer quite convincing. I carry around a 20GDM in my wallet as a memento, but I would hate to see a return to that currency.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • SanDiegoNonSurfer
    , contributor
    Comments (3510) | Send Message
     
    This is a compelling speech, Herr Hansa. Thanks for posting it.
    3 Jun 2012, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11528) | Send Message
     
    No one holding Euro bonds wants a break up simply because it might lead down a slippery slope to dissolution and certainly opens the door to a way to dissolve it. In such a case, the call may eventually be for strong states to leave rather than weak ones.
    3 Jun 2012, 06:50 PM Reply Like
  • Philbert
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    exactly... "strong states to leave rather than weak ones."

     

    and can anyone talking about the "tremendous" costs of doing this please provide demonstrable figures/numbers to show why or how this would be worse than staying and playing? thanks
    3 Jun 2012, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • Makin'it up
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    So, in essence, we will be going back to square one. The Euro will become defunct. We will be back to the continent of stronger and weaker economies. The supposed higher powers that be will attempt their plans of manipulation, to no avail because eventually, the best laid plans go awry. I can happily speculate about the possible out comes until I am blue in the face, but I choose to fasten my seatbelt, grab my bag of popcorn and enjoy the show.
    3 Jun 2012, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Doc 224899
    , contributor
    Comments (934) | Send Message
     
    Don't remember WHO Soros is. Instead, remember WHAT he is, and remember what he wants.

     

    Remember also that anything he says is considered by him before he says it so that it will give him the greatest possible benefit, and that the value of a statement to him will rest on the effect that it has on those who listen and those who respond.

     

    What he is, and what he wants, has been described repeatedly in broadcast media, and in print. You either know by now, or you don't.

     

    Remember, his hedge fund went private and it's strictly a family fund, so now the fund isn't constrained by SEC oversight.

     

    Think of the message in his statement: it's almost as though he's making an ultimatum to the German government to go liberal and finance the collective indolence of the lazy socialist states lining the Mediterannean.

     

    That's in diametric opposition to the spirit that will probably guide German policy, reflected in an old German saying that roughly translates as "Better to endure a disastrous event than an enduring disaster."

     

    Those who follow the Soros investing compass will bet that Germany will do what he advises Germany to do. That means investors would be long the Euro, short German and Swiss bonds, long the EU, long PIIGS, long France, short the dollar versus the Euro.

     

    Soros, on the other hand, will buy relatively inexpensive positions that are precisely inverse to those directions. And then, Soros will cash in big time between now and June 17th when Greece elects a socialist governement. Soros will make his moves all before the 17th of June; the 90-day ultimatum is a head-fake, the propaganda of misdirection.

     

    When that happens, Soros will already have the following positions (and cash in big time): long Swiss and German bonds on a bet that they'll be re-monetized in Swiss Francs and Deutchmarks after the EU dissolves and the Euro tanks; short the Euro; long gold; short oil; short China exports, short US financial markets and short US manufacturing .

     

    Disclosure: based on the above, where do you suppose I'll be?
    3 Jun 2012, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Wearing a tinfoil hat in a bunker in Montana, loaded up with guns, ammunition, and canned food. ;-)
    3 Jun 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • korneel
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Give germany 90 days ...
    YES, germany was the" big problem to begin with, maybe the rest of Europe should look at germany and see what they have done sinse problems started and try to learn from them.
    3 Jun 2012, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • Philbert
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    It's a farce!! Germany, walk away.... walk away.... walk away.... cold black tiger!!! walk into the night.... cold....
    3 Jun 2012, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    Herr Hansa

     

    Throwing small or large amounts of money at a problem is absolutely more politically palatable. And it does prolong the recovery. This sounds just like the Keynesian solution that made the Great Depression last a lot longer than it should have. Let's hope we don't see any bank holidays in the near future.
    4 Jun 2012, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    You mean like the two day bank holiday running in the UK at the moment? ;-)

     

    It's the oldest game in town, and it has been running for centuries. The Hanseatic League lost out years ago. I don't have to like it, but it helps to know how to profit from all this.
    5 Jun 2012, 01:13 AM Reply Like
  • tradewin
    , contributor
    Comments (658) | Send Message
     
    That's what I like about this forum. Getting a different take on things. I don't trade Forex, but it will be interesting to see how all this plays out for the B.Pound over the summer. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar is having a hammering effect on the energy markets here.
    5 Jun 2012, 11:21 PM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2898) | Send Message
     
    For people who absolutely worship governments, North Korea should be their place to live.

     

    For people who absolutely detest governments, Somalia should be their country of choice.
    6 Jun 2012, 05:49 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Hub
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs