Seeking Alpha

While U.S. smartphone growth slows down, and risks declining more thanks to higher service fees,...

While U.S. smartphone growth slows down, and risks declining more thanks to higher service fees, Raymond James' Tavis McCourt thinks the Chinese smartphone market could grow from 100M units in 2011 to 250M-300M units in the coming years, given the country has a base of 1B+ mobile subs. He sees Apple (AAPL - previous), Samsung (SSNLF.PK), and Qualcomm (QCOM - previous) as key beneficiaries, while noting Nokia's (NOK) Chinese smartphone share fell to 11% in Q1 from 80% in 2010.
Comments (12)
  • muoio
    , contributor
    Comments (2957) | Send Message
    I would disagree ......The "key" beneficiaries are T, VZ and marginally S.


    Good trading
    13 Jun 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (999) | Send Message
    I don't understand how us carriers are the key beneficiaries of Chinese growth...
    13 Jun 2012, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (6631) | Send Message
    He's probably referring to US slowdown and carriers rate increases.
    13 Jun 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • muoio
    , contributor
    Comments (2957) | Send Message
    The longer a phone remains in the hands of a customer the greater the profit for the carrier...That is what I was referencing...Not China.


    Sorry for any confusion I may have created.


    See moves on T, VZ and S the last 3 months.


    Good trading.
    14 Jun 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • muoio
    , contributor
    Comments (2957) | Send Message
    Yes and no---once amortization of the "phone set" subsidy is complete.....the monthly revenue is NOT goes to the bottom line.


    That is the reason T is my largest they and VZ have the largest amortization subsidy pool as it were.


    Without a customer re-up on a new phone----incremental profit flows to the carriers.


    Good trading.


    14 Jun 2012, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • remurraymd
    , contributor
    Comments (2287) | Send Message
    (AAPL) iPhone sales in Cnina up 500% last quarter
    Good news should continue there for Sammy too...
    13 Jun 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • m300cab
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    suppose the chinese start buying knock-off?
    13 Jun 2012, 05:02 PM Reply Like
  • dakang
    , contributor
    Comments (187) | Send Message
    The Chinese buy mostly knock-offs (and of course counterfeits). About 3/4 of the iPhones market is concentrated in the prosperous Pearl Delta region (Guangzhou to Hong Kong on the southeastern mainland), the rest is salted across the big cities, mostly in the hands of the teenage kids of the business and governing classes. The high-line Asian Android lines are similarly distributed. The whole rest of the market is knock-off.
    13 Jun 2012, 10:58 PM Reply Like
  • techy46
    , contributor
    Comments (6631) | Send Message
    We'll have to see how Nokia's Q2 and Q3 2012 Chinese and other territory unit sales compare to total market and then extrapolate from there. It's great that US is slowing and not China and India where the Apple story isn't so fad and glam based. Apple's getting killed in all Asian markets by Android which shows Apple's popularity isn't really global.
    13 Jun 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Long AAPL
    , contributor
    Comments (123) | Send Message
    Where are you getting this information? Please validate. Your claim is just opposite of what I have read in multiple sources.
    13 Jun 2012, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (9155) | Send Message
    Man...Nokia sucks.


    Why is it so hard for them to turn around what was once THE dominant cellphone company?


    What happened?


    They had the market all to themselves (or so it seemed).
    14 Jun 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • Random K
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
    China is the future for apple, US is dead because of people going for the cheapest phones due to the worsening economy there.
    14 Jun 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs