Voting has ended in Greece and the initial exit polls show the race too close to call, with New...


Voting has ended in Greece and the initial exit polls show the race too close to call, with New Democracy (apparently good if it wins) at 27.5-30.5% and Syriza (supposedly bad if it wins) at 27-30%.
Comments (54)
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    Syriza at 27% is bad. No coalition can be formed. Nothing has changed - Greek now at the end. Bye bye.
    17 Jun 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Losing Paper While Gaining ...
    , contributor
    Comments (488) | Send Message
     
    Whose definition of bad or good?

     

    What's "good"?
    17 Jun 2012, 02:19 PM Reply Like
  • bixbubba
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Probably everyone can agree that another stalemate is bad.
    17 Jun 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    For it to be good, a large majority of Greeks, MUST agree on a "Fix the problem" solution. There is really only one thing to do, stop spending, get to work, and pay off the debt. In any small amounts show the lenders that finance the Greek Circus, that there will be an honest national effort to fix things. This will probably not happen. The Greeks are gonna go belly up, and for one to figger out what that will cause, one better be pretty smart. I figger, what the result will be from an investor's angle, and that is go get back into DRR and EUO. I may skip EUO because DRR pays better if you are right, and if you had been shorting the E$ recently, then you have a cushion to be wrong. Don't get whipsawed. Pick a direction and stick with it. Especially, if you say the E$ is going up, I need your money to fill in the value my shorts are gonna need. :^)
    Happy guessing.
    Remember, I have a time machine and you don't so ...
    B E W A R E of crossing me.

     

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    17 Jun 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Robin Hewitt
    , contributor
    Comments (5473) | Send Message
     
    Thank you Truffle. It's not a win unless they form a coalition. If they fail to do that, the gov't is dissolved and there will be another round of elections. In the meantime, the interim gov't has no authority to do anything beyond set up the next round of elections. It can't manage a run on the banks, make laws, negotiate with the other EU nations, or respond to emergencies. Nothing. In that case, Hoop will have his chance to observe the effects of "limited gov't".
    17 Jun 2012, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2860) | Send Message
     
    BBC is reporting that official projections show ND and Pasok will win at least the 161 seats to form a majority and a government.
    17 Jun 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Robin Hewitt
    , contributor
    Comments (5473) | Send Message
     
    Mike, the BBC reports I've seen say "maybe". This WSJ blog seems to have best coverage: http://on.wsj.com/LYVID2
    17 Jun 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2860) | Send Message
     
    2034: Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has called New Democracy's Antonis Samaras to congratulate him, reports say. But there is little sign of political accord in his first remarks after the poll. "We propose to upset the austerity measures and the bailout," Mr Tsipras says, adding, "this is the only viable solution for Europe".

     

    The BBC blog: http://bbc.in/KETxpQ
    17 Jun 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • Grand Nagus Kelly
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    The answer is spend smarter.
    17 Jun 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • Robin Hewitt
    , contributor
    Comments (5473) | Send Message
     
    For the next three days, Pasok is the wild card. ND can't form a coalition w/o them. Probably Pasok will not completely walk away from the table but they will probably negotiate very hard. IMO, that's unfortunate because Pasok will be protective of institutions that have led to calcification and bloat. I think it would be better for Greece if Syriza were the leading party because it would be more of a clean sweep. This outcome spells stasis -- the last thing Greece needs.
    17 Jun 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • into dark shadows
    , contributor
    Comments (460) | Send Message
     
    Heads I win!

     

    Tails you lose!
    17 Jun 2012, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • sr1977
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    aheh-heh
    17 Jun 2012, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9903) | Send Message
     
    OK, will be interesting to see how Asia and EU markets react on Monday and then the US pre-market.
    17 Jun 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • bixbubba
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    Bloomberg is reporting the below. If ND got 30.5 that would give them 126 seats. And if PASOK got 12, that would give them 30. That's more than enough for a coalition. But lose 6 of those seats and its not. And that's only 2.4% of the vote. So, if ND and Pasok are right in the middle of their ranges, then even if ND wins the plurality, it is unbelievably close to the margin of them being able to form a coaltion.

     

    Political Party Percentage
    New Democracy 27.5 – 30.5
    Syriza 27 – 30
    Pasok 10 – 12
    Independent Greeks 6 – 7.5
    Communist Party 5 – 6
    Golden Dawn 6 – 7.5
    Democratic Left 5.5 – 6.5
    17 Jun 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Angel Martin
    , contributor
    Comments (1370) | Send Message
     
    the strength of Golden Dawn is ominous, but not surprising, parties like that are going to get stronger the longer this goes on.

     

    It looks like the whole "slapping" incident didn't hurt, the exit polls have them above what they got last time, and i bet their actual vote count is well above the exit poll range.
    17 Jun 2012, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2860) | Send Message
     
    The right wing parties in Europe have been seeing greater support for much of the past decade. Its a little disconcerting.
    17 Jun 2012, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2459) | Send Message
     
    It is irrelevant. The focus on these Greek elections is totally ridiculous.
    17 Jun 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    yes. only a gullible fool would buy or sell based on the results. whatever they are.

     

    E
    17 Jun 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16265) | Send Message
     
    Hey, I have some excess undeployed cash, so let's have some hysteria.
    17 Jun 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • Grand Nagus Kelly
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    What are you buying. I have a boatload sitting and waiting for a big down day myself Tack.
    17 Jun 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16265) | Send Message
     
    Joe:

     

    For me, it would all depend on what panicked down the most. I'd be examining various European issues, as well as which U.S. issues dropped in sympathy, and how much, relatively.

     

    In Europe, my tracking list includes; SAN, TEF, FTE, VE, BBVA, TOT, REPYY, RDS.A, BP, as well as the country ETF's; EWI, EWG, EWP, EWQ.
    17 Jun 2012, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2868) | Send Message
     
    interesting because according to surveys 80% of the people want to remain in the EU and keep the Euro, which would indicate the New Democracry party would win by a wide margin, but now you have both neck to neck in exit polls, Greeks go figure. Looks like more of the same ambiguity from Greece no matter what happens today, so then its a crap shoot how the markets will react
    17 Jun 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (2068) | Send Message
     
    enigma,

     

    I always liked this concept as a reference tool for events like this:

     

    http://bit.ly/LYj7Eq
    "In game theory, the Nash equilibrium (named after John Forbes Nash, who proposed it) is a solution concept of a game involving two or more players, in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only his own strategy unilaterally.[1]:14 If each player has chosen a strategy and no player can benefit by changing his or her strategy while the other players keep theirs unchanged, then the current set of strategy choices and the corresponding payoffs constitute a Nash equilibrium.

     

    Stated simply, Amy and Phil are in Nash equilibrium if Amy is making the best decision she can, taking into account Phil's decision, and Phil is making the best decision he can, taking into account Amy's decision. Likewise, a group of players are in Nash equilibrium if each one is making the best decision that he or she can, taking into account the decisions of the others. However, Nash equilibrium does not necessarily mean the best payoff for all the players involved; in many cases, all the players might improve their payoffs if they could somehow agree on strategies different from the Nash equilibrium: e.g., competing businesses forming a cartel in order to increase their profits."

     

    So the Greeks as a voting group are using the expected known strategy of the other players against them concluding rightly or wrongly that uncertainty improves their ultimate negotiating position.

     

    This line summarizes it well:

     

    "The Nash equilibrium may also have non-rational consequences in sequential games because players may "threaten" each other with non-rational moves."
    17 Jun 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • pmiller100
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    Might be a case of it depending on how the question is asked. My guess is most Greeks, like people everywhere else, want everything. Do you want to keep the euro? Of course, rather than blindly jump into the consequences of reviving the drachma. Do you want to work 30-some hours a week, retire early, and get a big state-funded pension? Who doesn't? Do you like the German-imposed austerity? Absolutely not! Do you want to pay your own way through life? Get real.
    17 Jun 2012, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16265) | Send Message
     
    pm:

     

    That last question applies equally here in the U.S. We have about 50% of the folks happy to have the other 50% pay all the bills. The only difference between here and Greece is that the 50% paying the bills are still able and foolish enough to do so.
    17 Jun 2012, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • Terry330
    , contributor
    Comments (883) | Send Message
     
    In the US we have about 99% of population happy with food stamp wages to support the top 1% lifestyle, as they pay a 58 year low in federal taxes,( romney paid 14% on millions).
    17 Jun 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2938) | Send Message
     
    love it

     

    so I paid over $2MM in taxes over the past 15 years - I know that I have not and will not get that back in services or benefits so I am guessing that a good chunk of that has gone to support a lot of other people and programs.

     

    that $2MM - excludes property and state income and sales taxes - all of which end up going elsewhere.

     

    I save my money - invest for the future - work 80 hours per week and know that I will need to work until I am well into my 60's before I can retire. I lead a company of about 800 employees and most of my wakin hours are spent making sure that we can continue to attract and retain the best people and continue to grow our company.

     

    And for all of this I get told I am not doing my fair share - that more is needed from me - not the 50% who pay no income tax or the 90% who in aggregate pay the same as the 1%.

     

    If for no other reason - this economic nonsense is reason enough to get rid of the Redistributionist in Chief - the Prince of Panderers - the Campaign Meister. The Idiot Obama.

     

    Obama must be Defeated

     

    E

     

    17 Jun 2012, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • Robin Hewitt
    , contributor
    Comments (5473) | Send Message
     
    "I have not and will not get that back in services or benefits"

     

    Right. That's why pirates from Somalia invaded your home last night, carrying away your wife and daughter and over half your belongings, after which a drug cartel from Mexico arrived to take over your kitchen and garage to use as an outpost for their operations. Meanwhile, your entire bank account was transferred to Nigeria and there's nothing you can do about it because there are no treaties with other nations and no one respects the U.S. military. But none of that matters because you woke up covered in raw sewage since there are no sanitary services, nor can you get medical help because the hospitals have all been raided for their drugs so you're not going to live more than a few days anyhow. Thank goodness a band of roving savages is arriving within hours to torture you to death for the fun of it.

     

    Oh wait, you say none of that happened? Then I guess you're getting some benefits after all.
    17 Jun 2012, 05:30 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3121) | Send Message
     
    Next step: a breakup of the EU.
    17 Jun 2012, 01:40 PM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't matter who wins ! both sides must renegotiate and Merkal has said that isn't in cards ! Greece can't form a coalition and even if they could can not make the payments. This was as much of a joke as the last election !

     

    The facts are this ! There are over 300000 Greeks eating at soup kitchens and supplies and dollars are running out. This needs to be a world wide charitable event or the past street violence look like small practice sessions.

     

    Most just care if Central bankers will flood the financial world and keep the averages up and not give a poop about the hardships.

     

    Greece has been in default for 1500 of their 3000 years of life and politicians are out for themselves.. This is going to be a human disaster an we all need to chip in and screw the financial maggots !
    17 Jun 2012, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • bixbubba
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    It looks like ND has a very narrow win, and Pasok has enough seats to help make a coalition. By the narrowest possible margin in both cases.
    17 Jun 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Teutonic Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (3414) | Send Message
     
    3rd Round on July 22?

     

    This is bad for markets!
    17 Jun 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11216) | Send Message
     
    Souvlaki.....30.1%
    17 Jun 2012, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • The Geoffster
    , contributor
    Comments (4291) | Send Message
     
    Meanwhile, the Socialists are in firm control of the French Parliament. Would that Obama be so lucky. The End is nigh.
    17 Jun 2012, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • kyleg17
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    So how Will the us market trade these events? Thoughts gentleman?
    17 Jun 2012, 03:02 PM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (2083) | Send Message
     
    Radicals lost, The New Democracy won. Now let's see if they can be realistic, or open the band-aid box and solve nothing.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    17 Jun 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • shild
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    Why doesnt anyon see that the same way Greece is going (bankruptcy, huge social programs, early retirement for government workers, abysmal banks, manufacturing indutries falling thru the roof etc) the UNITED STATES is in the same boat !! We are just a couple of years away from the markets or the rating agencies saing enough of the these crazy spending policies, shape up to the music of high interest rates, lower the expenditures on Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, section rent subsidies (which once gotten, can never be taken away just like in Greece).
    America has to cut the expenditures asap -- tax rates are high enough (federal 35% + 3.5% Obama surcharge + 4% expiration of Bush tax cuts + 12% tax rates in most states incl NY, CA, IL, NJ etc) before we become Europe and Greec will be laughing at US at that point!!
    17 Jun 2012, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2860) | Send Message
     
    Fox news says all that constantly. The US has full access to the bond market, rates at all time lows, energy prices at a fraction of what the world pays, an expanding manufacturing base, and an educated, highly productive, mobile workforce. The US has basically invented everything worth mentioning in the last 20 years. O and we can print our own currency, which means we have much more flexibility than the Greeks to devalue our currency to gain competitiveness.

     

    There are a lot a reasons to worry, and things Washington drastically needs to address. But comparing the US to Greece is absurd.
    17 Jun 2012, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • shild
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    Do you know a working poor can get federal $7,500 Earned Income Credit plus an additional $4,000 in NYC, And the United States is not going bankrupt??? But will out do Greece in every way!We will put Greece to shame in the bankruptcy we will go through !!
    When the EIC program started it started at $344 to pay for the SS a working person paid and now its up to $7,500 ....., what a great government with TRILLION DOLLAR deficits, that blasts the oil and banking industries & many other industries etc every day for all their terribe sins -- I say let the Federal government get its house in order first and then tell corporations what to do !!
    17 Jun 2012, 03:17 PM Reply Like
  • Grand Nagus Kelly
    , contributor
    Comments (1837) | Send Message
     
    When the bankers and their ilk demand government stop giving them welfare and bailouts and sweet government contracts, then I will join you in demanding government stop helping the poor with EIC and foos stamps.
    17 Jun 2012, 03:54 PM Reply Like
  • rijkaard
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Seems pro-bailout parties will have enough seats to form a coalition. Risk on or sell on news tomorrow?
    17 Jun 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • sr1977
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    Most likely no immediate USA QE with the supposedly "stable" New Democracy in power...as long as things do indeed become more stable in Europe.

     

    Some people think that the markets & European banks want a "shock" to the economic system so that a thousand bazooka's of QE are unleashed. If the New Democracy did indeed win, then we have taken a step back from getting that...it would seem.

     

    On the other hand, with Spain & Italy in bad shape, the QE may still come, just not as soon as it would if Greece was looking like it was going to walk away from the EU after this election.
    17 Jun 2012, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4560) | Send Message
     
    With about 40% of the vote counted the centre-right New Democracy Party enjoys a lead of about 4% over its greatest challenger, the SYRIZA grouping of Anarchist, extreme Green and Trotskist Parties. PASOK, the leading centre left social democratic Party appears to have retained and may have somewhat increased the support it received in the May election. Given the rule under the Greek proportional representation system that awards the Party with the greatest number of votes a further 50 of the 300 seat Parliament, it now appears that New Democracy will have more than 130 seats and PASOK about 30 seats - enough to form together a majority government favouring continued adherence to the terms of Greece's agreement with the ECB, IMF and EU (albeit striving to renegotiate the harshness of the depth and timetable of those terms).

     

    It should be noted, however, that PASOK campaigned on a promise that it would push for a broad coalition Government that included SYRIZA and it follows that negotiations for creation of a new Government will be somewhat complicated. Hovever, given that SYRIZA has already stated that it will not join a coalition with New Democracy together with the need to complete formation of a Government quickly to prevent further damage to Greece's political and economic standing within the EU, expect these coalition negotiations to be settled swiftly and a new coalition centred on ND and PASOK to take office within a week to 10 days.

     

    Given the senario described above, expect the markets to generally react positively but that there will be moments of concern as the negotiations to form the Government hit momentary rough patches.
    17 Jun 2012, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16265) | Send Message
     
    The markets will do what they always do when they're in a trading regimen. If the news is seen as moderately positive, then futures will rise, we'll have a higher open, then the rise will be sold into, as traders bag their kill.

     

    Of course, this behavior has nothing to do with longer-term market direction, which will be determined by actual economic performance, not by short-term reactionary trading.
    17 Jun 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • bosco115
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    Tack, I am disgusted with how accurate your first paragraph is.
    17 Jun 2012, 04:54 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2868) | Send Message
     
    Greek voters opted to stay in the EU but expect to renegotiate its bailout terms, however A Merkel has said "Nein" to that, a deals a deal so while there will be some positive reaction to the news the markets will soon come to realize "they have seen this movie" they know the plot and know that it ends badly.
    17 Jun 2012, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2868) | Send Message
     
    BTW- While todays Greece elections took the headlines Frances elections will probably have more of an impact on the EU. With Socialist now in control of the French government expect French Pres Hollande Sause to thumb his nose at the EU which would pose a much bigger problem then little old Greece.
    17 Jun 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16265) | Send Message
     
    Enig:

     

    The socialists are even more pro-EU than their predecessors, so they'll just turn up the heat on Germany.
    17 Jun 2012, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Robin Hewitt
    , contributor
    Comments (5473) | Send Message
     
    The center left winning a full majority is a positive event. If they hadn't they would have had to form a coalition with the far left. Hollande is a moderate and a pragmatist who wants to see growth policies, not just austerity.
    17 Jun 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2868) | Send Message
     
    Hollander Sause wants growth policies because he doesn't want austerity, growth is in the future austerity is now, why do austerity now when you can put off, he just lowered the retirement age from 62 to 60 for many, which doesn't sound so much pro growth as entitlement business as usual. France is going to go Greek on the EU, watch!
    17 Jun 2012, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2868) | Send Message
     
    I agree they are pro EU but not pro austerity, sound Greekly familiar? Send us the money but not the bill. A Merkle is already upset with Hollande because she sees that France is already moving away from the EU accepted business plan. Yes France can turn up the heat on Germany but Germany cant save the EU from itself. Talk of fiscal union is now on the table which is what is needed to save then EU, Germany I believe invites it, can the same be said about France and the others. Will France agree to be under the thumb of one central agency who would be able to call all the shots. France is socialist, why would it want to give up its sovereignty opposite of what they seemingly voted for.
    17 Jun 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4206) | Send Message
     
    Agree 100%. This word "socialist" has many meanings in Europe and the French ones are more like Social Democrats. I liked the last socialist president a lot!
    17 Jun 2012, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (16265) | Send Message
     
    Enig:

     

    I think you're misreading the tea leaves.

     

    The fundamental fact of the matter is that the price Germany, and everybody else, must pay for a functioning EU is less national sovereignty, more fiscal stimulus and a lower-valued euro. Merkel has feverishly defended the value of the euro, but one should wonder why.

     

    One of the fundamental problems that the EU has is that its currency is overvalued, not just overvalued for select troubled countries, but overvalued, overall. The EU can fix two problems by pulling a Fed and printing some euros: they can stimulate their intra-national economies and they can improve their overall competitive position versus the rest of the world. And, for all the talk about politically-imposed austerity, nothing will impose its own form of prudence faster than having the currency purchase less than it has been for too many years. The result of this currency overvaluation has been generalized profligate spending by all of Europe, although Germany's has so benefited from the single currency that they've been able to keep up.

     

    France isn't worried about being "under the thumb" of a more centralized Europe. They're big proponents of same, and just got bigger with these election results. To think that they're suddenly about to spin off from the EU takes some very creative thinking.

     

    The EU is trending ever more toward center. Sure, it's happening in fits and starts, but the direction is unmistakable. All of today's elections point in the same direction.

     

    And, any talk about a mutiny of German voters is just talk, as they remain solidly pro-euro in all polls, and to the extent that Merkel's party has suffered losses, they have been to politicians and parties that are even more committed to the EU and euro than she is.

     

    The net-net of all this conjecture in Europe is that investors better pay attention to what's happening in the U.S. and elsewhere, instead, as that's what's going to drive markets, after they've put down the newspaper and its daily headlines.
    17 Jun 2012, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • enigmaman
    , contributor
    Comments (2868) | Send Message
     
    OK Im not saying France wants to or will leave the EU same with Greece. But both will want to negotiate a different "get out of debt plan" with the EU. Greece doesnt want to tax or cut, France wants to tax (75% rate) and do some cuts but both really want to spend there way out of debt, and thats where they both run into problems, especially with Germany. And while I believe a fiscal union will be required to correct the flaw in the system why would France want to give up there banking system to be regulated by some EU agency, does Greece have any banks :)
    17 Jun 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
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