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John Hussman remains bearish - reiterating his estimate of current prospective return/risk...

John Hussman remains bearish - reiterating his estimate of current prospective return/risk tradeoff remains as negative as he's ever seen - but he's keeping an open mind. "My impression is that further Fed easing will be relatively weak and surprisingly poorly received by the market, but in the event our own metrics improve materially, would respond with a constructive stance."
Comments (4)
  • Epictetus
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    translation: when I can't take the pain any longer of taking it in the @*#, I will capitulate as I have always done in the past...
    18 Jun 2012, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • remurraymd
    , contributor
    Comments (2287) | Send Message
     
    translation #2
    I cannot read charts therefore cannot see (SPY) meandering up on higher new lows and am a wuss and a Chicken Little suffering from a failure of fundmental analysis skills so I will just bloviate instead.
    18 Jun 2012, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1144) | Send Message
     
    The two commenters above have never actually read a Hussman commentary.

     

    A link to the archive:
    http://bit.ly/LrOxo9

     

    When everyone was screaming "Buy!Buy!Buy! in April, S&P 1550 here we come", he was saying to sell so in terms of recent action he has has nailed the market's path better than most.

     

    He also nailed the 2007 December recession call to pretty much the week in which it began.

     

    Nov 12, 2007 opening paragraph:

     

    http://bit.ly/rRDfhh
    "In recent months, I've repeatedly noted that while recession risks were gradually increasing, there was not sufficient evidence to expect an imminent economic downturn. Most economists still believe this. On Saturday, the consensus of economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators indicated expectations that growth will be sluggish into next year, but that there will be no recession. Unfortunately, the economic consensus has never accurately anticipated a recession. For my part, the outlook has changed. I expect that a U.S. economic recession is immediately ahead."

     

    Where he "fails" is in reading how to deal with short-term moves and taking advantage of them - he is a long only manager that focuses on cap preservation first.

     

    I am not one of his investors but I love his commentary assuming you have the patience to read it and I wouldn't dismiss a guy with his intellect and track record out of hand.
    18 Jun 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Robert Keyfitz
    , contributor
    Comments (779) | Send Message
     
    I'm not so much into grand speculative pronouncements (data please!), but according to http://bit.ly/Ll2R0d Hussman has not been particularly insightful about market timing.
    20 Jun 2012, 07:43 PM Reply Like
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