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More on Windows Phone 8: AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have promised to support WP8, and...

More on Windows Phone 8: AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile have promised to support WP8, and Samsung, HTC, and Huawei are joining Nokia as initial hardware partners. Also, Zynga (ZNGA) says it will develop games for WP, and Qualcomm (QCOM) boasts all WP devices currently available run on its processors, while adding WP8 models will use multi-core Snapdragon chips. Broad industry support for WP8 could leave little room for BlackBerry 10 (RIMM) to emerge as a "third ecosystem."
Comments (38)
  • Wonder how much HTC, Huawei and Samsung have to pay Nokia for using Nokia Drive, Nokia Maps and Nokia Transport? Or does Microsoft pay Nokia license fees for each W8 and WP8 device.

     

    I can't wait to see Nokia WP8 phones and tablets. Yes, Nokia will make tablets that run WP8. Why not is's now a full blown W8 OS core with phone functionality.

     

    It fits right in to the XBox home server with Smart Glass media app and Verizon's one data plan mutilple devices no messaging or voice charges. That'll be a Nokia Fluid tablet for each member of the household to play games and watch their own TV shows.
    20 Jun 2012, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • @techy46

     

    Are you surprised to see Mr. Softy sign up these big phone OEMs without giving NOK more time and air under its wings for NOK WP offerings? What exactly did MSFT pay its $1B for? An advance against royalties? At least this announcement should once and for all kill rumors that MSFT was going to buy NOK.

     

    I'm actually starting to think that MSFT might actually have a compelling ecosystem that will certainly be attractive to two huge audiences -- the corporate crowd and the gamers around their Xbox. Apple will continue to grow its base and win big in China if NOK does not get China Mobile -- but you can make a pretty decent case for MSFT in North America... I'm probably going to start accumulating some MSFT (currently hold both AAPL and NOK)...

     

    All the very best,
    Don
    20 Jun 2012, 08:05 PM Reply Like
  • @dhd, I'm pretty close to the same, my biggest concern is about the Surface cannibalizing the windows tablet market and ultra book, but I think that case is a moot point because all MS gains from the existing tablet/ultrabook market is royalties on Windows, eh? It would seem that if the pricing of the Surface models is even close to Apple the profit would easily offset any such cannibalization, eh?

     

    I'm probably over thinking.
    21 Jun 2012, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • Nokia is available thru China Mobile. Lumia 900 has been selling well.
    21 Jun 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • What's your source for the Lumia 900 being sold thru China Mobile?

     

    Nokia does sell the Lumia through China Telecom: http://bit.ly/LiYeQu
    21 Jun 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • @dhd

     

    No, WP has been open to any and all ODMs that play by Microsoft's rules. That's always been the case. The WP brand needs all the recognition it can garnish to reach critical mass. I still have a lot of questions about Samsung, Android and Bada and I'm sure MS does too. We have to see how Nokia's cash flow looks in next earnings on 7/19/2012. I think their cash burn rate show go down to about $150-250m a quarter; -.04 to -.07 EPS. Hopefully Lumia units will come in at 6-10m units. Afterwards it's all about waiting for WP8 devices and announcements.
    23 Jun 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • When you look at current smartphone sales volumes, all Android vendors besides Samsung sold less smartphone in 2011 than did RIMM. The overall smartphone market is still growing. The trick for RIMM is not so much capturing 1/3 of the overall market. What they need to accomplish is to grow. The current user base is estimated at 78million BlackBerry users. Using overall smartphone growth estimates suggesting the overall worldwide smartphone market will more than double over the next few years, RIMM should be targeting reaching over 150 million users. This would still place them as the fourth largest system, because the overall market growth is likely to exceed growth at RIMM.
    20 Jun 2012, 06:39 PM Reply Like
  • I wonder how many companies would kill to have 78 million annually paying customers (2 million growth over previous year) and about $1 billion in cash ever quarter.

     

    Oh, an $0 debt. I know I work at a company that used to have 2k employees and we never made $1 billion in a year.
    20 Jun 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • It constantly amazes that the market can so completely disregard sales and balance sheet on a company because they have decided that "it's no longer current." (PBI) and (RIMM) two classic cases. We all know that analysts and CEOs alike hardly look past the next quarter...
    RIMM is still the preferred platform for most corporate IT folks who support large on the road contingents. Imagine a small island in the sea... "Damn, what a large moat we have!"
    (We can't grow much, but we are safe... Fortress England!)
    20 Jun 2012, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • @Herr Hansa:

     

    The problem for RIM is that, while the subscriber base is increasing, the sales of new Blackberries is falling. Perhaps fewer subscribers are upgrading to new Blackberries. I've seen reports about companies whose employees carry Blackberries only for corporate communications and use iOS or Android phones for everything else. Those employees don't need new Blackberries unless theirs becomes unusable.

     

    One also needs to put these numbers into perspective. RIM has 78 million subscribers. Apple sells that many iPhones in about 7-8 months. There are over 350 million iOS devices (iPhones, iPads, iPod touches). Apple has over 400 million "subscribers" to the iTunes Store. As of the end of April, 125 million users had signed up for iCloud. These aren't directly comparable to RIM's subscriber base, of course, but they put the 78 million number into perspective.
    20 Jun 2012, 09:18 PM Reply Like
  • RIMM actually break out the figures on smartphones in their reports. The last quarter was the lowest volume of new users added, with most of the volume going towards upgrades. Indicates from RIMM on their last couple conference calls were that many of the 78 million user base were on more than two year old devices. A grander perspective on this is that they have been profitable up to this soon to be reported quarter, when they will likely report a loss due to restructuring charges, inventory reductions, and employee redundancy.

     

    To put this more into perspective, when RIMM shares were this low previously, they had barely 500thousand users on their system in 2003. In 2010, when they started adding employees, they had 45miilion users on their system.

     

    http://econ.st/FQeqcK

     

    Further perspective, there are more BlackBerry users than there are Mac OS X desktop and laptop users. If you want an even bigger base and faster growth, look at where Google Android is on the chart in that article.

     

    The suggestion that in order to be viable or profitable, a company must beat Apple, is ridiculous and meaningless. Samsung already passed Apple in smartphones as of the last quarter of 2011, yet Apple is still pulling in huge profits. Nokia still has a larger overall mobile phone share than Apple, yet struggles for profits. Market share is meaningless, unless the market is saturated, and it is not yet at that point. Facebook has over 900 million "subscribers".

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    I already went over many of these things in this article, and I don't want to re-type that here as a comment. Apple is expected to have 17% to 20% of the overall smartphone market by 2015/2016, which implies more than double the volume of iPhones now being sold as an annual sales volume. Beyond that point is market saturation, and customer retention will be more important.

     

    Ask yourself why Sony, LG, HTC, Motorola and Nokia all continue to make smartphones, when they cannot sell as many each year as RIMM. My feeling is that when you see these companies disappear, one by one, then that will lead to very few vendors left on the market. We may reach a day when you walk into a store for a new smartphone, and your only choices are Apple and Samsung, but we are certainly not near that day yet.
    20 Jun 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • But who would pay for Blackberry next year when there's these new superior MS offerings against it on the market?

     

    I think the American view of BB is distorted. BB is or never has been nowhere near as important a player on mobile market in other parts of the world as it has been in US. I personally have never even seen a BB phone in flesh even if I've been using smartphones from day one when Nokia introduced the original Communicator 15 years ago.
    21 Jun 2012, 03:18 AM Reply Like
  • What planet do you live on. RIMM was ranked #1 brand in South Africa, is one of the best selling phones in India due to the advanced functionality a blackberry is able to offer on a 2g network. Jamaica everyone has a blackberry. Just about every government outside the US as well.
    21 Jun 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • That is called a duopoly and will not happen. Smartphones are just like computers, TVs or electronic devices. While TV profits have gone down, there are more then two players. I just bought an LG LED, but looked at the Sony, Panasonic, Sharp, Toshiba, Philips. Now how about laptops, remember IBM? Who now owns the hardware manufacturing for the think pad? Lenovo! How many companies make desk tops or laptops? HP,Dell, Toshiba, Lenovo, Acer, Sony, etc. Ever buy a receiver, Harman kardon, Sony, Pioneer, Bose etc. So why would smart phones be any different? I'm typing from my dual core 32 get playbook and it works as good as my wife's Ipad, but it is more portable!
    21 Jun 2012, 08:59 AM Reply Like
  • it's all about consumer preferences
    21 Jun 2012, 12:19 PM Reply Like
  • Agreed, though we have seen those become quite fickle at times. What is hot one year may not be the next, as the herd moves towards something else.
    21 Jun 2012, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • Yet another reason to short RIMM
    20 Jun 2012, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • At what strike price?
    20 Jun 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • $6-8
    20 Jun 2012, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Could happen especially if BB10 is delayed till 2013.
    20 Jun 2012, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • A couple of issues. First is actually launching BB10 and the second is getting carriers to launch BB10. If one carrier in the U.S. market tries to move towards an exclusive, then it might limit initial sales. On the other side of that, if one or more carriers refuse to carry it, then it would hurt sales. RIMM need a launch to happen across multiple carriers, prior to holiday season 2012.
    20 Jun 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Prior to holiday season would be optimal but it has to be complete. One thing to remember, the US government is still RIM'S largest customer and such carrier support will continue.
    20 Jun 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Not only the US government, just about every government. Blackberry was rated the #1 brand in South Africa, one of the best selling devices in India as it offers the best functionality giving their 2g networks. So when you get outside the group-think of a bunch of people on Wall Street, Blackberry's future is not that dismal. Maybe they won't grow at 40% a year, but they will make a profit and with zero debt, that all goes to shareholders. a 50% discount to book, with 75% backed as cash, a great investment opportunity, though Nokia is my favorite turnaround play. RIMM is a great short squeeze play. Short interests is now almost at 13%, a record high. The stock is down 50% as % short doubled from 6-12%. So why is RIMM going down? Short sellers.. My shares are borrowed and sold. You can tell based upon where the shares are held within your brokerage account. Truely sad that if I sell, I have to accept a share price that already reflects the facts that my shares have been sold. How is that fair? Its time to reign in short sellers and squeeze them out of RIMM!
    20 Jun 2012, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • "Maybe they won't grow at 40% a year, but they will make a profit ..."

     

    Well, they're "growing" at a negative rate--sales are falling, as are revenues. As for "profit," last quarter, they didn't make any--they had a loss. RIM has predicted another bad quarter or two--i.e., more losses. Don't confuse "profit" with "cash." For example, a company can dump inventory at a low price and increase their cash while recording a loss on the inventory sold and any inventory left. (RIM did exactly that with the Playbook and, more recently, with older Blackberries.)

     

    Suppose your car was supposedly worth $10,000, but, in order to raise cash, you sold it for $5,000. Your cash has increased but you have lost money.
    20 Jun 2012, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • Yes that is true, but operating cash flow incorporates non cash expenses such as depreciation and amoritization. So you can post an accounting loss, while still produce positive cash flows...
    21 Jun 2012, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • Nothing about the mkt. surprises me any more.Only a sudden proliferation of logic and common sense would shock and awe.I guess the saying is true "attitude means more than all the facts in the world".Case point(personal perspective) I cannot count as lost,that which I never possessed...
    20 Jun 2012, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Emerge? 80 million subscribers isn't established enough?
    Wouldn't it be one of FOUR ecosystems?
    Remind me again...how many subscribers does Windows Phone have?
    21 Jun 2012, 12:17 AM Reply Like
  • 80 million subscribers is actually not that much on a dying platform. Are they tied to the platform forever or is there some other reason they can't jump on another platform that's technically way more advanced and thrilling and picking up momentum? BB is berried, better get used to that idea.
    21 Jun 2012, 05:01 AM Reply Like
  • QNX platform will be very appealing to consumers who I agree are not tied to any platform. I can see both iOS and Android losing share to RIM. One of RIM'S greatest advantage is its data compression and lower cost to consumers. RIM is alive and will rebound.
    21 Jun 2012, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • Puhleezzz, you really think that datacompression is the key to future success of an ecosystem?? iOS and Android will definedly loose share but for MS ecosystem and not RIMM. What do you think would make people interested in RIMM ecosystem when they can jump to MS ecosystem with all the subsystems (computers, desktops, ceelphones, home entertainment systems) working seamlessly together? Sorry, but I can't see that happening in this world.
    21 Jun 2012, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • for cost conscious consumers yes it does matter.
    RIM is very sucessful in countries like England, South Afica, India, Thailand and Indonsia do to the low cost of owning a BlackBerry.
    MS has to show what they have so far very little on the mobile front.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • If you don't think data compression will be an issue, then you apparently having been paying attention to AT&T and their mobile bandwidth issues.
    22 Jun 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • it does when devices are data hogs
    22 Jun 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • RIMM is working on integration with Android ecosystem, which would allow users to access all the apps they want on their playbook. However for all of those who never really used a software program and may not be familiar with prodigy or the commodore 64, he who was once a leader can be sure to fall if you do not evolve. I would rather access my financial information through the website then via a app. When you bookmark a website, it looks just like an App. One key difference, the website experience is much richer and has access to a lot functionality then a thin client download, or app.
    21 Jun 2012, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • so true I take the web over an app any day provided your mobile device can handle the full web, now their are specific tailored apps that are more efficient than the web so I want the best of both worlds.
    21 Jun 2012, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • As HTML5 takes over the web, it looks like RIM will be the leader there. The BB10 test device (not the alpha) apparently scores higher than the current desktop browser leader.

     

    http://bit.ly/LGyONv
    22 Jun 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • Just fyi there are non native browsers on competing devices that also perform pretty well, a good example being the Dolphin browser, which crushes Android's native browser.
    22 Jun 2012, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting find. I haven't seen any video yet showing the BB10 browser. I suppose they compiled data from testers with beta units?
    22 Jun 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
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