Short the S&P with a target about 5% below current levels, says Goldman's Noah Weisberger,...

Short the S&P with a target about 5% below current levels, says Goldman's Noah Weisberger, whose worries about the economy just got worse with the collapse in the Philly Fed index.
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Comments (14)
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1312) | Send Message
    What's the over/under on how long until we get some dovish comments from some Fed Governor? 4 hours?
    21 Jun 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • MEKhoury
    , contributor
    Comments (406) | Send Message
    Quick, it's opposite day
    21 Jun 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • montanamark
    , contributor
    Comments (1456) | Send Message
    LOL - take note muppets
    21 Jun 2012, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Roman Chuyan, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (241) | Send Message
    Noah's a little late to the game - our PAR Model was indicating a six-month S&P 500 return of -5.2% in March, then confirmed by a -6.8% forecast in April. The S&P 500 then dropped about 6% in May. Our end-of-May report still indicated a potential -4.4% return for SPY in the next 6 months, but now we are seeing a slight easing of the negative indicators. You should have been underweight for the past three months and potentially easing that position now. What's GS got Noah selling with this one?
    21 Jun 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Machiavelli999
    , contributor
    Comments (831) | Send Message
    GS was forecasting QE3. I think since we didn't get QE3, S&P dropping 5% is a conservative forecast. 10% is definitely in the cards. However, I do agree that the chances that Fed governors start coming out with more and more dovish statements increases the worse things get. And as soon as QE3 is back on the drawing board, a floor is basically set in for the S&P.
    21 Jun 2012, 06:46 PM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1465) | Send Message
    Agreed. No reason to worry. Ben has been pushing for everybody to get into equities. He can't let the floor drop out. Nothing more than a buy opportunity coming up.
    21 Jun 2012, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • tr4head
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
    You guys might as well be buying tulips. Has it not occured to you that the US economy is in such dire straights that the Fed is forcing people into equities. People no longer buy US stocks because of the intrinsic value of US companies, but because the Feds game of Twist and Shout has reduced all interest bearing investments off the table. What a sound way to build an economy! This is a level of desperation that should scare the hell out of anybody.


    There are options. One is called Cash. The other is Asia (x Japan) and most of the emerging markets, that is where the new world economic order will be played out. We will get scraps because Asia has people with brains, morals (compared to US this is not a leap) and the work ethic that made America great but has been lost. The Secular Socialist cultures have pretty much wrecked the Developed world. Put your money where there is a future.


    The Emerging world was whacked way beyond reality last year and is a buy now. Don't believe the Developed World money managers that say otherwise, they have other fish to fry.
    21 Jun 2012, 09:20 PM Reply Like
  • optionmike
    , contributor
    Comments (91) | Send Message
    heres the thing though, large american multinationals (JNJ, ABT, INTC, PEP,etc..) are in emerging markets...they will do very well in the following years
    21 Jun 2012, 10:48 PM Reply Like
  • Machiavelli999
    , contributor
    Comments (831) | Send Message
    First of all: NO


    Second of all, this isn't about politics. It's about making money. If you look back in the 2008-2012 period, there have been three great buy opportunities. First was March 2009. QE1 was implemented that month and the market took off like a rocket.


    It hit a wall in summer of 2010 when the Euro problems began to rear its ugly head. Bernanke stubborn then and let the market slowly fall all summer. But when QE2 came in September the market resumed its upward pass.


    Third was spring of 2011. This time it wasn't the Fed, but the ECB that stepped in with pseudo-QE a.k.a. LTRO. Again the market shot up.


    Now here we are again. This is a buying opportunity, but you are always running the risk that the monetary authorities really won't come through like they didn't in late 2008. I still don't think I am a buyer here. I think the market will retest the May lows and kind of hang around there for awhile waiting till next Fed meeting. Next Fed meeting will be HUGE! QE3 will be fully expected by then.
    22 Jun 2012, 01:32 AM Reply Like
  • tr4head
    , contributor
    Comments (316) | Send Message
    optionmike: Exactly! What does this tell you about where the money will be made in the near future?
    23 Jun 2012, 10:47 PM Reply Like
  • DettoTheSecond
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
    Do what GS does, not what they say! Buy!
    21 Jun 2012, 10:21 PM Reply Like
  • aarc
    , contributor
    Comments (3753) | Send Message
    For trading purposes, there are many Trading Strategies that can be formulated using the the current market price actions which are highly bifurcated thus giving both bulls and bears many opportunities depending on how a trader utilize TA for his/her advantage:


    Either Or TA:


    That's my TA as of yesterday.


    These are other possible scenarios for short-term trading consideration:






    #2 is the most common interpretation among many seasoned traders actions and accordingly majority of them have already taken their positions using either the Divergence Buy Signal and/or the first Inverted Head and Shoulders when they formed.


    As to Goldman Sach's. They used to be very accurate in their forecasts BUT lately their buy, buy, buy bull call last March 21 backfired badly causing some traders to accuse them (GS) of pumping the markets so they can sell high. Therefore, better take the 1285 recent short call with a healthy dose of salt.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:44 PM Reply Like
  • genomegk
    , contributor
    Comments (961) | Send Message


    Good grief another day like today and that would be 5%. Sounds like best case scenario.
    21 Jun 2012, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • ThetaDecay
    , contributor
    Comments (103) | Send Message


    Written on March 21, when the S&P500 opened at 1405.52. We topped out at 1419.04, less than 1% above that price
    22 Jun 2012, 05:24 AM Reply Like
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