The latest rumors aren't helping Research In Motion (RIMM -2.8%), as investors focus on a...


The latest rumors aren't helping Research In Motion (RIMM -2.8%), as investors focus on a downgrade to Underweight from Morgan Stanley's Ehud Gelblum ahead of Thursday's FQ1 report. While granting "immediate asset sales or strategic options could unleash ~$15/share in value," Gelblum see this as unlikely, and predicts a future of major hardware division losses. His FY14 revenue forecast of $7B is well below a consensus of $12B. (Credit Suisse)

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Comments (9)
  • bedrock65
    , contributor
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    love these analyst, how about getting 2013 right before guessing on 2014.
    25 Jun 2012, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • Matithyahu
    , contributor
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    I think that the problem with their forecasts is not that they are wrong. The problem is the degree to which they are off, when they are wrong. For forecasts with a large standard deviation--and these guys can provide the standard deviation with one with their models--that must be included as a footnote when disclosing information. Otherwise, I won't have any idea how reasonable that number is.

     

    And, it doesn't matter if every analyst comes to that general consensus. Each model still might have a large standard deviation, and that means that each model is essentially the same--there is no strength in numbers in such a case, because the expected value isn't in question. It could also be said that the models are highly correlated. What is in question is how reliable is this number? The answer, usually, is "not very."

     

    M@
    25 Jun 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • Mad_Max_A_Million
    , contributor
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    A funny thing happens when you do not stay ahead of the competition: Nothing...
    25 Jun 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • redwoodsman
    , contributor
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    Morgan Stanley does not recognize the positive changes being made by RIMM that will save the company $1B this next year or take into account their new Smartphone that will be launched soon. To be $5B out on a valuation is pitiful. You can try to drive the nails into the coffin but you can't bury it till the intended one dies.Do you people get paid to write these statements?
    25 Jun 2012, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • bedrock65
    , contributor
    Comments (673) | Send Message
     
    then this is a buying opportunity for all the RIM bulls, unfortunatley I have maxed my position at $10.25-$11 range, otherwise I would be buying today. I hold a long term view on RIM and will re-analyze my position in Q1 2013 after B10 has been launched
    25 Jun 2012, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • redwoodsman
    , contributor
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    Do You hear the church music in the background?
    25 Jun 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • sreimer77
    , contributor
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    Morgan Stanley told you to buy when it was at $100, to hold while it went down to $10, and now its a sell. No wonder why no one has any confidence left in the financial system!
    26 Jun 2012, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • santorama
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Could this estimate be motivated by short covering?
    27 Nov 2012, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • redwoodsman
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    Why pullout now when RIM is just gathering momentum ? RIM has passed all it's tests and excitement is starting to rise. The days are getting shorter and the launch will be a blast.

     

    Long Rim
    27 Nov 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
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