Caris' Craig Ellis slashes his Q2 and 2012 estimates for Intel (INTC) after checks indicate Euro...


Caris' Craig Ellis slashes his Q2 and 2012 estimates for Intel (INTC) after checks indicate Euro PC sales growth is "tracking 250 bps or so" below prior expectations. That, along with a "lean inventory bias" among PC vendors, leads him to think there's "300-800 bps of downside risk" to Intel's 2H revenue growth. Baird and JPMorgan on Intel earlier this month for similar reasons, and others have also made downbeat assessments about near-term PC demand.

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Comments (7)
  • J.D. Welch
    , contributor
    Comments (1972) | Send Message
     
    "It's the same old story, same old song and dance, my friends!"

     

    This all sounds so familiar; analysts with their finger on the pulse of Western markets making dire predictions about Intel's upcoming earnings. We shall see..
    27 Jun 2012, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • Russ Fischer
    , contributor
    Comments (3018) | Send Message
     
    Apparently Craig wasn't listening when Stacy Smith was recently asked about the effect of Europe's mess on Intel's business. His response was that a significant softness in Europe indefinitely was factored into the Intel outlook and forecast.

     

    Anything could happen, but both Paul and Stacy have recently reiterated the "high single digit growth" for 2012. If they are right on for qtr 2, the first half would be $26.5 billion. That means the second half has to be about $32.5 billion. That is two $16.25 billion quarters, or a $17billion q3 and a $15.5 billion q4.

     

    I don't have a clue how they get there, but I would suggest a bunch of it will be Romley. That alone doesn't get them there.....Romley and $2 billion/qtr from Apple would.

     

    Just my speculation , as usual.

     

    BTY: Craig in "Director of Reseach at Caris. Everyone else is a Managing Director or VP, so he in probably not one of ther super stars.
    27 Jun 2012, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • frosty
    , contributor
    Comments (720) | Send Message
     
    Well, we might expect some slowdown in pc sales leading up to the release of Windows 8, thereafter a surge of sales should begin. So Q2 and Q3 might be a little soft but Q4 should pick up the slack, if any.
    27 Jun 2012, 04:14 PM Reply Like
  • 153972
    , contributor
    Comments (1264) | Send Message
     
    The analyst's predictions is no surprise. Anyone that has read the newspaper the past six months knows Europe is in a slowdown and probably headed for a recession. So, I have to ask why did he even provide an update about Europe? If he said that Asian PC sales were 300 basis points down then that would be news.
    27 Jun 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (9710) | Send Message
     
    Watch as Intel beat the analyst estimates yet again and the stock goes past $28 after the earnings call.
    28 Jun 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • J.D. Welch
    , contributor
    Comments (1972) | Send Message
     
    One can only hope, Ashraf... :-)
    28 Jun 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • debtfree1
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
     
    I'm not scared, I'm holding INTC as long as it takes to lose my a$$ or make a few bucks.
    30 Jun 2012, 08:19 PM Reply Like
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