June ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.7 vs. 52.0 consensus and 53.5 prior. Prices index 37.0 vs. 47.5...


June ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.7 vs. 52.0 consensus and 53.5 prior. Prices index 37.0 vs. 47.5 prior. Employment 56.6 vs. 56.9. Inventories 44.0 vs. 46.0. New orders 47.8 vs. 60.1.
Comments (37)
  • bixbubba
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    i think ecri was about 2-3 months early in their forecast. this is a huge miss.
    2 Jul 2012, 10:04 AM Reply Like
  • mjc99
    , contributor
    Comments (89) | Send Message
     
    "ECRI is about 2-3 months early in their forecast".

     

    How is this early in their forecast. Back in Sept 2011 ECRI stated that the U.S. has already or is about to tip into recession. If ECRI keeps extending their forecast range, eventually they will be correct.
    2 Jul 2012, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    Mcj99, well said you just owned him.

     

    ECRI is a joke...
    2 Jul 2012, 12:11 PM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (2069) | Send Message
     
    That is indeed a big miss. Wrong direction for a reacceleration of the economy.

     

    If we are at about 1.7% now then there isn't much room for downside.

     

    Of course this makes sense in the context of all the other PMI data worldwide so for once this isn't an outlier.

     

    Is the US as an island of stability and growth reaching its end? Are we recoupling?
    2 Jul 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    Factory orders surge to highest levels of the year, up 0.7% month to month change.

     

    NO recession....

     

    Hahaha, what's the excuse now?
    3 Jul 2012, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (2069) | Send Message
     
    anon,

     

    You obviously don't spend much time interpreting data because there is a big difference between leading and lagging data.

     

    The prior month's factory orders was a big negative so the overall numbers are flat for the last 3 months. Not to mention it is a May number which seems so long ago now in view of all the new data we have currently.

     

    ISM New Orders is the leading indicator that matters. GDP still tracking at 1.5% this quarter and losing steam even after this report so maybe no recession in terms of zero growth but you can hardly tell the difference.

     

    You can focus on history I will pay attention to the present :)
    3 Jul 2012, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    No problem. By December of this year, we would know who was right.

     

    I would keep this thread in my bookmark.

     

    Have a good 4th of July. :)
    3 Jul 2012, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    ADP PRIVATE PAYROLLS GAIN 176K*

     

    Hahahaaha, where are the doomers now? You don't have shame?

     

    You guys were so wrong.

     

    NO recession.
    5 Jul 2012, 08:29 AM Reply Like
  • detto
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Oh boy do these doomers learn? LMAO!!!

     

    Where is the recession??
    5 Jul 2012, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (2069) | Send Message
     
    anony,

     

    You are so tiresome and boring. Do you come on this website to learn or to taunt?

     

    As an FYI, there were 82,000 jobs created in Dec 07 with a 5% unemployment rate which was the start of the last recession. The difference between where we are now and recession is infinitesimal and we are heading in the wrong direction. If we don't get a re-acceleration from here then we will get to recession - that's just math.

     

    Stop making it personal or just don't respond to my posts.

     

    Thanks
    5 Jul 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9903) | Send Message
     
    Will the US markets finally begin to move in the reality world now?
    2 Jul 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't below 50 mean contraction?
    2 Jul 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    "Doesn't below 50 mean contraction?"...

     

    It is a diffusion index....rightwingers....
    2 Jul 2012, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • montanamark
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    yes it does - even for koolaid drinkers
    2 Jul 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (2069) | Send Message
     
    anon,

     

    Just FYI, not sure what "rightwingers" has to do with anything on this particular metric but PMI was 49.0 in Dec 07. This is why people care about this diffusion index. It matters in the same way you would be celebrating a beat to the number.

     

    Historically this number doesn't drop this much this fast.

     

    http://bit.ly/N43w61

     

    These were the numbers starting in June 07
    52.6
    52.4
    50.9
    51.0
    51.1
    50.5
    49.0
    2 Jul 2012, 10:22 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    Check the employment metric of all those reports.....very different from now.

     

    The employment metric barely budged from 56.9 to 56.6.

     

    In those reports you linked there was a clearly drop in the employment metric.

     

    No recession.
    2 Jul 2012, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Try comparing the actual number of employed then and the number employed now - you will have your answer (there is a base) ..but keep spinning and maybe you will make to the land of fairies and rainbow unicorns.
    2 Jul 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    Construction Spending up 8% year over year....

     

    NO recession.
    2 Jul 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • montanamark
    , contributor
    Comments (1455) | Send Message
     
    yes, remember the words of our pres. "everything is fine" ignore the data
    2 Jul 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • bixbubba
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    UI: the markets are still too conditioned to expect that cavalry to arrive. i worry we may get Calvary instead.
    2 Jul 2012, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3527) | Send Message
     
    Well done!
    2 Jul 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1449) | Send Message
     
    Hey BBro - Let's see you spin this!
    2 Jul 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11217) | Send Message
     
    47.8 is not good for new orders...but I wouldn't bet the farm we are in a recession...
    2 Jul 2012, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (2069) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    I am not sure it is recession yet but this drop in New Orders is one of those fat-tail type stats that you need to pay attention to when it happens. I am guessing the official LEI will go negative this month again once New Orders make their way into the weighting. That will be twice in 3 months which really does smell like recession.

     

    http://bit.ly/KOBTKz

     

    "Here is RDQ Economics:

     

    The drop of 12.3 points in the orders index is the largest since October 2001 (when, in the wake of 9/11, the index dropped 12.4 points) and the second largest decline since December 1980. Thus we are dealing with an event that occurs in roughly one in 100 reports. … Our best guess is that manufacturing growth is downshifting (but still positive as suggested by the relative strength in the employment index) and that commodity prices will stabilize and recover somewhat. However, uncertainty about the state of the economic expansion just got ratcheted up a notch with this report."
    2 Jul 2012, 12:15 PM Reply Like
  • bixbubba
    , contributor
    Comments (363) | Send Message
     
    the market is betting the farm, and more, that we aren't--or that we are and that somehow uncle ben will still make it all ok.
    2 Jul 2012, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • torahislife
    , contributor
    Comments (400) | Send Message
     
    Disturbing numbers in context of global trends. Your "Uncle Ben" can't fix economies and markets anymore than a crack pusher can fix an addict's life. Sober up.
    2 Jul 2012, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • winningtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (2459) | Send Message
     
    He can't fix economies but he sure knows how to fix money supplies ... print, print, print ...
    2 Jul 2012, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Eifrid
    , contributor
    Comments (353) | Send Message
     
    Reduction in depreciation in Section 179 drove 2012 purchases for capital expenditures into 2011. Gets worse next year as the remainder of the tax incentives in Section 179 run out at the end of this year.
    2 Jul 2012, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    "Manufacturing is no longer a dominant part of the U.S. economy, accounting for about 19% of the economy’s gross output and about 9% of employment."

     

    So the ISM could go to 40 and the economy would keep expanding as the manufacturing sector is insignificant.
    2 Jul 2012, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Poor Texan
    , contributor
    Comments (3527) | Send Message
     
    Yes and if we can get rid of all manufacturing it would improve our environmental quality. Then we can starve in clean air.:-(
    2 Jul 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (2069) | Send Message
     
    anony,

     

    "So the ISM could go to 40 and the economy would keep expanding as the manufacturing sector is insignificant."

     

    Do you really believe this?

     

    If manufacturing experienced this decline it would mean the services component would also follow (as it did in Dec 07) which is why the official LEI places so much emphasis on manufacturing so you really are ignoring this at your peril.

     

    Good luck.
    2 Jul 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    My apologies for the exaggeration. What I mean is that the ISM services is more important and we shouldn't be so obsessed with the manufacturing sector.
    2 Jul 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    China has a bigger manufacturing base than ours, and I was just there and I saw a lot of people in poverty. More in proportion to their economy than our.....

     

    Manufacturing doesn't equal prosperity, not when multinationals use people as slaves.
    2 Jul 2012, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    your right...the employment index only budged a little bit..No recession... There is a HUGE depression coming. HUGE...it will change the world in a much bigger way than 2008 did. 2008 was a drop inthe bucked compared to whats about to happen... Total economic and currency collapse is coming.
    2 Jul 2012, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (2069) | Send Message
     
    Josh,

     

    People forget the unemployment rate was 5% in December 2007 and then fell to 4.9% in Feb 08.

     

    Employment is a lagging indicator and it is important to recognize the difference between leading and lagging when assessing the direction of the economy.

     

    Components of the LEI and their weightings (big emphasis on manufacturing for those that are unfamiliar with the calculation):

     

    Leading Economic Index Factor
    1 Average weekly hours, manufacturing 0.2781
    2 Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance 0.0334
    3 Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials 0.0811
    4 ISM®
    new orders index 0.1651
    5 Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excl.
    aircraft 0.0356
    6 Building permits, new private housing units 0.0272
    7 Stock prices, 500 common stocks 0.0381
    8 Leading Credit Index™ 0.0794
    9 Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds 0.1069
    10 Avg. consumer expectations for business conditions 0.1551
    2 Jul 2012, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    Still doesnt change the fact that the global economy is in a massive bubble thats gonna pop...and when it does the EURO is finished..The USD will remain King and China will be starving to death(if it hasn't already begun) I partly agree w/ Anony.. Yes manufacturing is only 19% of GDP, BUT even though its a smaller part of our economy..what does that say for the rest of it? And we did have a reading of 40 back in 2009, and we were losing 700,000 jobs a month..so that number has some merit, but not too much.
    2 Jul 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Eifrid
    , contributor
    Comments (353) | Send Message
     
    Nothing small about 19% of the economy. What does it take to 'service' that 19%? I imagine a good bit. 19% of the US GDP is $2.77 trillion. Any loses in manufacturing ripples through the economy.
    2 Jul 2012, 07:51 PM Reply Like
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