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The VIX ETN (VXX -6.6%) prints an all-time low, as does a related ETF (VIXY -6.6%),...

The VIX ETN (VXX -6.6%) prints an all-time low, as does a related ETF (VIXY -6.6%), fear evaporating from the stock market even as German and U.S. 10-year yields under 1.6% suggest otherwise. Stocks themselves have rebounded nicely, mostly green a few minutes before the bell.
Comments (19)
  • Thanks Uncle Ben... serve up that rice to Miss Merkel too while you're at it!
    2 Jul 2012, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • Fear melts off right until it doesn't. I got in at 15.95 and 16.05 and I'm comfortable with that. When the rally stops it stops fairly quickly and there isn't time to blink.

     

    Movements downward tend to happen far faster than movements upward.
    2 Jul 2012, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Time to long vxx and watch the fireworks. Traditionally the markets will sell off july, aug, and sep. The can is kicked down the road so far. Then it lands on a stump and the next kick breaks your foot.
    2 Jul 2012, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • Tomorrow is fib21 day from S&P bottom...
    2 Jul 2012, 04:51 PM Reply Like
  • Educated in England and USA privately, currently living in Kent UK as forex & metals trader, have doubts over the future of euro zone.
    2 Jul 2012, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • Efficient market theory says, all things have been fixed! LOL.

     

    Or, perhaps there is no fear, because so many market participants, know any losses will be socialized.

     

    No reason for fear then.
    2 Jul 2012, 05:15 PM Reply Like
  • Agree with the sentiments that the VXX and UVXY will break out soon in a hurry, look at the ten-year treasury which is up today more than 5% at 1.57% -- isn't that because of the fear factor (bond traders/investors are traditionally more fearful and less positive than stock investors) ?
    And does it make sense a 1.57% 10-year yield with a borrower (The US government) that has a trillion dollar deficit ?? Except that the treasury is the best of all places now to put your money very, very conservatively, but its a fear trade -- and that's why the VIX and VXX is set to go flying higher and the ten year yield to fall quite a bit still.
    2 Jul 2012, 09:13 PM Reply Like
  • You cant socialize or print money to alleviate huge deficits and massive unemployment and recessions, in the end you cant have the population retiring with 30 years to live on the government, huge social programs, medicaid for the masses ("Obama care"), high tax rates (43.5% federal next year plus state taxes of 12% in NY,NJ, CT, CA, IL.), deficits of more than a third of the government income (taxes) and still have a normal economy, so the VIX will go up pretty quickly !!
    2 Jul 2012, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • Ok,

     

    We'll see how long the conviction to be short remains.
    Yes. The VXX is at an all-time low.

     

    Who of you bought UVXY at $40 and felt good about it last October?
    How about $30? Anyone? OK $20? Some? $15? Feeling better?

     

    What if the Dow makes an all-time high on Interest rates we know will remain low for the next few years? Feeling safer? How about corporations yielding better than any 10 or 30 year bond because of low rates?

     

    Are you so sure of your position? Keep averaging down...great stategy!!
    2 Jul 2012, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • VXX is down because there is more fear in the future than now, as measured by VIX. Until this changes VXX will keep going down.
    3 Jul 2012, 03:30 AM Reply Like
  • Good gracious, this index has lost 96.5% in the past three years...

     

    I guess, investors are looking tax wipeoffs...
    3 Jul 2012, 05:46 AM Reply Like
  • And UVXY has lost 96% since last fall.
    3 Jul 2012, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Well part of that is to be expected considering it's been risk on or status quo since last October...

     

    If the market pulls the status quo the VXX always moves lower. It's only in times of extreme panic that it moves higher.

     

    The fundamental problem is this, so long as the government continues to intervene in the natural flow of the markets, risk will always be on because there is no risk of the bottom falling out. People can keep on throwing money in knowing that the government will stop them from losing their money.

     

    In a way, when the morphine stops, the drop will be that much worse because people have levered themselves up like a crack addict and we're getting to the point now where people are risking more than they can afford to lose.
    3 Jul 2012, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • "technically" how low can VXX go? it broke through an all-time low so there's currently no floor. thinking of averaging down again (and have been selling weekly call options to also avg down my cost basis), but fearful of how low the shoe could fall... thoughts?
    3 Jul 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Great question, I bought in at 16.00 (the last 52 week low) - there's really no limit to how much further it can go as the VXX moves with the momentum. If the S&P moves to 1400+ this thing will go way lower, at this point, you have to play a hunch. I'm fairly comfortable losing 10-20% because I know that when this thing moves.. it moves.

     

    The question is if it will move at all f*cking government intervention and HFT.
    3 Jul 2012, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • You could compare VXX to the actual VIX and try and assess the rate of decay of the fund. Then, use the floor on the VIX ($14-15, it looks like) to estimate the floor on VXX.
    3 Jul 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • i think that the 100 years charts of dow looks terrible i feel a crash is comn
    3 Jul 2012, 04:17 PM Reply Like
  • The summer ralley has lasted about 2 weeks. Does anyone know the longest summer ralley? My bet, the ralley will not last thru earnings. We may get positive earnings but it's all cooked in and the market dumps. Just my 2 cents worth...
    3 Jul 2012, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • The continued belief of an upcoming QEIII and changes to the construct of the ECB to allow further funding of EU banks keeps the risk on trade going and the VIX downward spiral. The SH%& will hit the perverbial fan eventually, the question is will the VXX holders blink first.
    4 Jul 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
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