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The jobless decade: December 1999 - 130.5M employed Americans. December 2009 - 130.9M....

The jobless decade: December 1999 - 130.5M employed Americans. December 2009 - 130.9M. Considering the country grew by 30M people, a 400K gain in employment over 10 years looks pretty awful.
Comments (26)
  • mgcolin
    , contributor
    Comments (116) | Send Message
     
    This is particularly awful when you consider aggregate debt doubled during the decade. The US is declining faster than any empire in history and I wish I were older so would not be around for the coming collapse.
    11 Jan 2010, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9322) | Send Message
     
    Debt service declined
    12 Jan 2010, 01:39 AM Reply Like
  • jerrion
    , contributor
    Comments (37) | Send Message
     
    how many more retirees are there now compared to 1999
    11 Jan 2010, 06:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jeff Nielson
    , contributor
    Comments (2464) | Send Message
     
    By the middle of THIS decade, the last decade will be looked back upon in the U.S. as "the good old days".

     

    A full DECADE of pushing EVERY problem off until "tomorrow" to fix means that the U.S.'s Day of Reckoning has now arrived.

     

    The "extend and pretend" decade is over. Now it's time to pay the bills.
    11 Jan 2010, 06:17 PM Reply Like
  • Donald Ingram
    , contributor
    Comments (3481) | Send Message
     
    Jeff - agreed. The "Minsky Moment" has arrived.
    11 Jan 2010, 08:54 PM Reply Like
  • Jackson Cash
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    huh? I thought the best and brightest were getting increased bonuses??

     

    Oh, right, lies, cheating and stealing leaving nothing but bad debt. Thanks corporate America, aka Fraud Street.
    11 Jan 2010, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • Northern Dancer
    , contributor
    Comments (737) | Send Message
     
    Be patient Jackson Cash. Apparently there are moves afoot to put together a march on Wall Street and I'm not kidding. As you are aware, the peasants are not happy and there is literally an uprising brewing against the astronomical theft of American citizens' money in the form of "bonuses". First they steal literally trillions of dollars that they then give to the bankers, which they use (partially) to fuel this rally, which ups their balance sheet, which justifies stealing even more bonus money for their "good work". Anybody can make money under those circumstances and improving balance sheets at the banks is definitely not due to any form of "good work" by Wall Street crooks. Stay tuned. If the rumor mill is true, it appears Wall Street is going to hear from the people. Would anybody be surprised if it actually happens? You shouldn't be. The only question I have is why didn't it happen years ago?
    11 Jan 2010, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    The march should be on Washington....they literally are the ones with the IRS gun to the peasants heads.
    11 Jan 2010, 08:26 PM Reply Like
  • Northern Dancer
    , contributor
    Comments (737) | Send Message
     
    That topic was being discussed and the conclusion they came to was that it would be more effective if it were on Wall Street. They were saying that the idea is to let it be known that the protesters are onto the crimes being perpetrated there. There was no discussion of a time frame, only that the wheels have just started to turn on this thing. We'll see what happens.
    11 Jan 2010, 08:46 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    Though I do believe the Fed and thus the bankers are pulling many of the strings....Wall Street will be unaffected. They are put in place by how much $$ they make (or steal)....I suspect those making big bucks off trading right now are rather happy. The only thing that would impact them was a vote of no confidence by mass pulling of $$ from their companies....an investors/depositors revolt.

     

    A good portion of Washington is up for re-election this year. 3-5 third party candidates getting elected would have a far more impactful result.
    12 Jan 2010, 06:37 AM Reply Like
  • a fat panda
    , contributor
    Comments (806) | Send Message
     
    Keep in mind that the benchmark here December 1999 which is a terrible benchmark. It was a period of time where hiring was off the scale for a couple of reasons that had nothing to do with economics.

     

    Companies were hiring in expectations of problems with Y2K. We also had the internet craze, where people were employed but paid in stock options. Some companies didn't expense the options at all, and others charged to corporate overhead. So to the hiring manager it was a little like a massive Kmart bluelight special on labor.

     

    2000s sucked for US labor, but the numbers in this story overstate the problem.
    11 Jan 2010, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • Donald Ingram
    , contributor
    Comments (3481) | Send Message
     
    Are you serious? "the numbers in this story overstate the problem"?

     

    Wow! Where have you been? Look at the numbers yourself. Between 1999 & 2009 there are about 13 millions missing from the BLS employment population! Where did they go? They fell off the back end of the unemployment surveys - thats where! They're not counted - they don't count! Wake up!
    11 Jan 2010, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9322) | Send Message
     
    8 million of the workforce is illegal immigrants...
    12 Jan 2010, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • prudentinvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (841) | Send Message
     
    The geniuses who run our economy discovered "financial innovation" which allows people to just spend ever rising, inexhaustible home equity, instead of working for a living.
    11 Jan 2010, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • Sumit Batra
    , contributor
    Comments (65) | Send Message
     
    China is having industrial revolution and we are having deindustrialization . Our stupid politicians and greedy cooperation’s sending jobs to overseas. The politician are saying free market helps consumer and cooperation, but don't help the working class. We don't manufacture anything in this country. We should enforce law that if you want to sell in USA, it should be made here. That's what Chinese do. It might reduce cooperation profits and consumer might pay more, but everyone will have job. The cities and states will have more tax revenue and country will prosper
    11 Jan 2010, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Northern Dancer
    , contributor
    Comments (737) | Send Message
     
    Sumit, you mean "corporation" and "corporate". Just trying to be helpful.
    11 Jan 2010, 10:09 PM Reply Like
  • a fat panda
    , contributor
    Comments (806) | Send Message
     
    I am not saying that the jobs market is doing well. Just that comparing today labor market to that of 2000 is no more relevant than comparing last years home run king to Mark McGuire on steriods.

     

    The 2000 employment market reflect 2 or 3 different forces that occur rarely independently much less all together. Saying what happened to the 13 million jobs is exactly like asking what happened to the 20 HRs. You are comparing different years as though they should be the same.
    11 Jan 2010, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. You can't draw conclusions from a peak to trough comparison like that over multiple time period. Tells you nothing.

     

    A better comp. would be peak to peak or trough to trough.

     

    Let's think clearly on this. Compare change in real gdp and decline in non farm payroll from ther recessions.

     

    2009 is clearly aberrant. BTW. Any of you who remember the '80's cannot be so dismayed by 2008/09. We had +10% unemployment then and got back to sub 5%. Maybe it really is different this time unlike EVERY OTHER TIME BEFORE.

     

    Below is a look at some previous recessions.

     

    2001. Non Farm Payroll decline = -2%, Real GDP decline = -0.3%
    1982. Non Farm Payroll decline = -3%, Real GDP decline = -2.8%
    1981. Non Farm Payroll decline = -2.3%, Real GDP decline = -1.5%
    1980. Non Farm Payroll decline = -1.2%, Real GDP decline = -2.2%
    1975. Non Farm Payroll decline = -2.8%, Real GDP decline = -3.2%

     

    2009. Non Farm Payroll decline = -5.2%, Real GDP decline = -3.6%

     

    Just eyeballing the data you can see that 2009 was different. Actually approximately 2 million extra jobs were cut relative to other recessions looking at GDP decline and what you would have expected. Why? Not sure. But I know other CEO's who were laying off at the end of 2008 and into 2009 "just in case" things get worse. Clealry there was a crisis of confidence and panic - that's subsided now. Companies cut into the bone - hence profit and extraordinary productivity growth.

     

    The conclusion. Based on the data. Not clouded by political ideology or anything else - just the facts is that we should see pretty good job growth as the economy grows and things get back to equilibrium.

     

    The best data out of the lousy payroll report was the Temp. hiring. Typically this leads the pyaroll number by 5 to 6 months. All the indicators I look at for Temp. hiring are screaming major "V" in payrolls is coming did not happen in December - maybe there was some December effects in the data - it is hard to tell - we need to see the next 3 reports to conclude if the recovery will be truly jobless.

     

    You can say "this time its different" and it could be - maybe we have reached a permanent steady state of chronic unemployment and high level of temp workers. But I doubt it. It hasn't happened before - ever. So expecting it this time is a low probability bet.

     

    Good luck. And if you are unemployed. Hang in there. Better days are ahead.

     

    E
    12 Jan 2010, 02:23 AM Reply Like
  • a fat panda
    , contributor
    Comments (806) | Send Message
     
    Econ, Solid stats. While I could see that the peak to trough logic was flawed, I was far too lazy to actually dig-up the stats behind it.

     

    "Just eyeballing the data you can see that 2009 was different. Actually approximately 2 million extra jobs were cut relative to other recessions looking at GDP decline and what you would have expected. "

     

    The problem is that we are relying on bubbles to create the jobs rather than productivity and innovation. Our productivity/wage has fallen relative to the rest of the world. This isn't a problem of low wages overseas, but rather businesses are investing in human capital abroad. The investment in human capital abroad is producing higher productivity. People look at the jobs shipped overseas, and sees someone losing a job. What is also lost is the investment in people, the training.
    12 Jan 2010, 06:05 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    Re: Bubbles. It is a matter of opinion. You could be right. I don't know. Not sure who can. A boom bust cycle as always existed in western capitalism. Schumpeter's creative destruction. You need a certain amount of that. I feel.

     

    On your other point re: productivity. I believe you are mistaken. This has steadily increased and has never been higher. Yes. The rate of change in productivity in say Bangladesh is higher than in the US - it has to be - getting electricity will cause that - but in absolute terms the US is way out in front on that score. Which is why the guy who designs the IPhone and the chip that goes into it and the machine that manufactures that chip is in the US - the machine is probably also made here and the software that controls it is also produced here - although some of the code is probably done in India.

     

    E
    12 Jan 2010, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • TraderMark
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    Trickle down economics will be kicking in any minute now... just be patient (ahem)

     

    It's not just the lack of jobs, it's the lack of wage growth. And it's not just the lack of wage growth but it's the downscaling of wages as many people move from 'work Americans won't do' (but the Chinese will) to 'work Americans love to do' i.e. healthcare, government, or Walmart.

     

    Private workers are even worse off than the data in aggregate. All the job growth was in public and pseudo public (healthcare, education) which are happening because we are piling on jobs we have no hope of ever paying, and the entity can run at a deficit (government)

     

    Whereas private sector shed jobs at a rapid rate.

     

    www.fundmymutualfund.c...
    11 Jan 2010, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • TraderMark
    , contributor
    Comments (2422) | Send Message
     
    2 ways to hide the reality ...

     

    first have a house ATM easy money era, that should work for 4-5 years

     

    then when that busts replace the house ATM with the government ATM.

     

    1 in 6 dollars of income for Americans now comes from government.

     

    And where does the government get the money?

     

    Please follow the nut as I move the shells around in rapid fashion.

     

    I guess after the government ATM we will try to reblow up the stock market ATM.

     

    And round and round we go, jobs not needed, but asset bubbles welcomed.
    11 Jan 2010, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • Michael2343
    , contributor
    Comments (457) | Send Message
     
    Its simply out of hand with the money printing, its become a system of control and no longer a government that represents the interests of the people. The United States has more or less been taken over by financiers, who will attempt to address every problem by moving money around like carrots for a stunned population of mules, to their perpetual advantage.
    12 Jan 2010, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9322) | Send Message
     
    1999 GDP per employee 71,000

     

    2009 GDP per empoyee 102,000
    12 Jan 2010, 01:40 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    Yes you are correct...due to modernization such as farming of certain jobs (ex accounting) overseas, replacement of workers by computers and automation of systems one can see more can be done with less workers. This trend is continuing as companies find new ways to reduce the cost of the worker.

     

    GDP per worker (using your numbers) increased 70% over the 10 yr period. Average wage index increased 76%, medical benefits costs increased almost 100%....not sure the GDP really increased when those factors plus inflation are figured in.
    12 Jan 2010, 08:08 AM Reply Like
  • Donald Ingram
    , contributor
    Comments (3481) | Send Message
     
    The public debt is increasing to the point of negative marginal utility of that debt. In other words, each new dollar of debt has an actual negative effect upon the economy and GDP to the tune of 15 cents.
    This is also being referred to as debt saturation, or super-saturation.
    12 Jan 2010, 04:46 PM Reply Like
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