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June ADP Jobs Report: +176K vs. +136K prior (revised from 133K) and expectations of 95K.

June ADP Jobs Report: +176K vs. +136K prior (revised from 133K) and expectations of 95K.
Comments (41)
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    NO recession.
    5 Jul 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • detto
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    So does this mean the ECRI is going to call for another break? The ECRI making predictions of recession and being outrageously wrong....
    5 Jul 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Morgan
    , contributor
    Comments (1500) | Send Message
     
     “The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly - it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over”

     

    J. Goebbels.
    5 Jul 2012, 12:38 PM Reply Like
  • Machiavelli999
    , contributor
    Comments (829) | Send Message
     
    You realize ADP is a private company right?
    5 Jul 2012, 06:03 PM Reply Like
  • varan
    , contributor
    Comments (3801) | Send Message
     
    You don't know about the Socialist Kenyan's magical powers. They worked even on the Republican's choir boy at the SCOTUS.
    5 Jul 2012, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    Varan, yep...so socialist that corporate profits are at all time highs, both in nominal and real terms. With the after tax profits coming well above trend in proportion to GDP.
    5 Jul 2012, 10:46 PM Reply Like
  • westerner
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    Reality and facts have little circulation here sometimes. Thanks for point that out.
    5 Jul 2012, 11:08 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9732) | Send Message
     
    This ain't a recessionary number....
    5 Jul 2012, 08:21 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4101) | Send Message
     
    Sounds like the summer pop to me, not sure why they thought it would only be 95k.
    5 Jul 2012, 08:23 AM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    "Summer pop"...

     

    This numbers are seasonally adjusted. The US economy roars back giving a punch combo to the naysayers.
    5 Jul 2012, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (8751) | Send Message
     
    "Roars back"? No wonder you are 'remaining anonymous'.
    5 Jul 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • American in Paris
    , contributor
    Comments (5504) | Send Message
     
    Michael,

     

    The evidence over the last couple months has been mixed. Manufacturing is soft. Housing strong. Consumer spending in between. Auto sales very strong.

     

    Hardly a compelling recession story.
    5 Jul 2012, 01:54 PM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Yes 55K more and keeps up with weaker population grown !
    Bulls are always full of hopium ( bull)
    5 Jul 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • detto
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    LMAO at the doomers!! They were saying that the world was ending, that the US was in recession..Hahahahahaa...

     

    You guys don't have shame. US economy at the fastest pace since the recovery. ADP to break above 200K next month.
    5 Jul 2012, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Summer hires ! Normally these #s would be hawlked up an down. Not a peep ! School starts and HD an LOW an the like let go they will drop !
    5 Jul 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • westerner
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    That seasonal adjustment thing really is confusing for some.
    5 Jul 2012, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5992) | Send Message
     
    Pretty weak number. This definitely confirms a sluggish economy stuck in a malaise. These numbers need to be in the 400+ range to validate the economic policies of politicians. These are not the types of figures a politician would point to to demonstrate a "stimulative" effect, and they are not the types of numbers that demonstrate a vibrant robust economy.

     

    Nonfarms might give a slight pop on Friday, but we are still stuck in the range we are in now for the S&P and interest rates. 10yr will most likely stay in the 1.60 to 1.70 range, maybe even till the end of the year.

     

    2013 will be the challenge. Now that the Supreme Court has ruled the constitution unconstitutional, politicians that don't understand our monetary model can do some real damage to the economy and especially the markets (even more so than they have already). Close attention will have to be paid the subsidy mixes, to determine the impact of these misguided actions and how the wealth will be transferred if you want that wealth transferred your way.
    5 Jul 2012, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • American in Paris
    , contributor
    Comments (5504) | Send Message
     
    400K? Where did you come up with that number?
    5 Jul 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5992) | Send Message
     
    Prior recoveries and based on what is needed based on the depth of the job losses lost from this most recent gov induced asset bubble which manifested itself in real estate. It establishes a rate that could move unemployment down to sub 6% in 18 to 24 mos. That's a recovery that would have validated the efficacy of a "stimulus" plan instead of "its not my fault, its not my fault, its not may fault" whining.
    5 Jul 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • detto
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    But...but....we were going into a recession???

     

    Now your excuse is that isn't strong at all?

     

    Do you guys have shame?

     

    Do I copy and post your past comments so we can have a good laugh?
    5 Jul 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Nolesince87
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Bulls will learn the hard way that even if you are right about the economy, you will be wrong about stocks.... I recall one week last summer when employment numbers came in WAY above expectations (the first sign that the employment situation was healing) and then the market tanked and still hasn't gotten back to that peak.
    5 Jul 2012, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Spencer Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (379) | Send Message
     
    Well, last summer the stock market was controlled by the U.S. debt crisis and possibility of default by Greece. Sometimes other issues are more important to the stock market than U.S. jobs. In other words that one week had zero correlation with that stock market.

     

    If you are not investing now you are going to lose tons of money over the next 1-2 years.
    5 Jul 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • azblackbird
    , contributor
    Comments (358) | Send Message
     
    Overall, employment is plummeting. Public sector is taking a beating. More muni bankruptcies to come. Postal centers are closing left and right, and many educational institutions are laying off. Next few months won't be pretty.
    5 Jul 2012, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • AJBaker
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Oh, you mean the way the GOP governors are cutting employment in their states and the GOP in Congress are trying to gut the governmental sector of the economy and claim Obama did it?
    5 Jul 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Stop it with the political b/s ! States must balance budgets ! Federal guys on both sides don't even know what thet means. Dem govs doing same ! Pay bills an balance by Law.. That law on Federal basis would make them all quit !
    5 Jul 2012, 11:52 AM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Only news that is helping is 370K stopped looking this month and keepin average from popping ! Full on poltical push from BLS ABC CBS ABC CNN to keep wonder boy looking cool. Rahter see Chris Rock take over !
    5 Jul 2012, 10:35 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1030) | Send Message
     
    I'm not hanging my hat on the ADP number. Just as well wait for tomorrow's NFP and it's components.

     

    Last month the ADP surprised to the upside and the NFP surprised to the downside by similar magnitude. Don't know why this happened, but certainly created a whipsaw in the markets.
    5 Jul 2012, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    ADP has summer hires and reacts instantly as they process checks. BLS needs to gather data at slower rate as info isn't all electronic
    5 Jul 2012, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1030) | Send Message
     
    Thanks DaLatin. So ADP is more of a leading indicator? How viable is ADP as a statistical sample of the overall labor market? Are they servicing smaller companies? Perhaps tilted toward service providers vs manufacturers? I have never come across a company that actually uses them, as the companies I have been associated with all have their in-house payroll departments.

     

    If employment really is getting better, a benefit might be that the Fed will stop talking about more QE. Would be nice to see the markets begin to stand on their own two feet.
    5 Jul 2012, 11:11 AM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    ADP services all sizes. Little companies need ADP more than large guys as they handle the taxing issues.. There not leading. They give real time exact data. They pay ....they count !
    5 Jul 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1030) | Send Message
     
    "they pay .... they count". So if ADP cuts 5% (I don't know what their share is, but let's say 5% for the fun of it.) of the checks issued for employees in the U.S., we would be looking at something like a 3.5 million NFP tomorrow. No wonder Anonymous and BBro and the other bulls are so excited.
    5 Jul 2012, 05:31 PM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    They are a private payroll service and are not that big !
    5 Jul 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • Jones E. Smith
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    The economy continues to accelerated. Good news for those unemployed.
    5 Jul 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • DaLatin
    , contributor
    Comments (1522) | Send Message
     
    Economy is slowing by every # ,but, facts be dammed. Good news is stocks and numbers don't need to move together. And, that is Fed's plan. You can't put your money in a bank ! They don't pay anything now and they charge for almost everything ! Stocks are it. You gotta be crazy to buy US bonds as that might be bubble of the decade !
    5 Jul 2012, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5992) | Send Message
     
    Isn't it amazing how often we are told to shun austerity, and when it comes to gov management of an economy, the expectations of economic performance become very austere.
    5 Jul 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • positivethoughts
    , contributor
    Comments (1890) | Send Message
     
    Take out money printing and where would the economy be? Is money printing sustainable over the long run?
    5 Jul 2012, 12:12 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11135) | Send Message
     
    The expectations were set unusually low. The gains are respectable if the other reports confirm the gain.
    5 Jul 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • Leonard Umina
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
     
    Theres also a lot of overlap in ADP numbers. Get a new job and you sometimes get 2 paychecks - for example people moving up or down or getting laid off can hit that number twice if they get a new job but are still being paid from the old one. That's why I don't pay attention to it.

     

    There could be some correlation if you take a derivative.
    5 Jul 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • nullid2002
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    So if the numbers came out so great, why isn't the market popping?

     

    Employment should be the biggest report until the next ISM. No stimulus? I think we'll get stimulus in any case. Fed is just waiting for more Euro moves.

     

    Spanish yields back up, btw. http://bloom.bg/NaXdNU
    5 Jul 2012, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    these numbers are plus minus 100k at least - this number is not different to consensus.

     

    E
    5 Jul 2012, 10:12 PM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (4101) | Send Message
     
    Hmm can you hear us now?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    6 Jul 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
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