With smartphone growth forecasts falling left and right, one more Apple (AAPL) bull is concerned...


With smartphone growth forecasts falling left and right, one more Apple (AAPL) bull is concerned about near-term iPhone sales. Wedge Partners' Brian Blair thinks only 28M-30M iPhones were sold in the June quarter, down from 35.1M in the March quarter. He suggests a cautious approach to Apple near-term if consensus forecasts top 31M, though (like others) he expects the next iPhone to produce a giant December quarter. (previous)

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Comments (16)
  • doc47
    , contributor
    Comments (1712) | Send Message
     
    If you're a trader it makes sense to jump in and out or play with options. If you're in for the long haul, just buy more on dips. It has worked for years!
    6 Jul 2012, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • madness1089
    , contributor
    Comments (216) | Send Message
     
    Brian Blair is generally very optimistic about Apple. The note he issued today was extremely bearish in tone but I am guessing 31 Million iPhone, 20 million iPad for EPS 12.35
    6 Jul 2012, 11:35 PM Reply Like
  • pridon
    , contributor
    Comments (24) | Send Message
     
    Believe Wedge downgraded numbers for last Q also and they were so wrong.
    7 Jul 2012, 12:40 AM Reply Like
  • pagreen1966
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    No surprise here.

     

    New iphone in the fall. Old iphone sales diminishing.

     

    Only to be expected!
    7 Jul 2012, 04:48 AM Reply Like
  • remurraymd
    , contributor
    Comments (2274) | Send Message
     
    Big Duh all baked into stock price.No one wants the 4 when the
    RED HOT iPhone 5 coming 50 million units to be sold per Munster
    of Piper largest refresh in the history of the world. http://bit.ly/wr63xL many others predicting expected small decrease in phone sales no biggie. Our fav chartist http://bit.ly/Qdx69F gets it to $673 VERY soon with all these
    positive catalysts. We put a giant 65 contract risk reversal BULL trade on about a week ago at $569 now at $607 up $65K 1 week for ourselves and our clients. We will stay long and strong (AAPL)
    7 Jul 2012, 05:23 AM Reply Like
  • ebeuu
    , contributor
    Comments (382) | Send Message
     
    However, one interprets what you just wrote; I am way long AAPL, too.
    9 Jul 2012, 07:17 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS-2.0
    , contributor
    Comments (528) | Send Message
     
    Nobody will buy a 4S with the 5 on the horizon.
    7 Jul 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (9484) | Send Message
     
    Count me a "nobody." I bought a 4S two weeks ago and didn't give the 5 a thought. I had the need to upgrade to a smartphone and was able to get a decent deal on a wonderful phone. The camera alone was worth the price.

     

    I am long aapl and wonder how wrong the analysts will be this quarter.
    7 Jul 2012, 06:27 PM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1556) | Send Message
     
    One of the things to also consider, is that the US market is on a different cycle than China... For them, the iPhone 5 is not just around the corner....
    I am hoping for as many analysts as possible to underestimate sales...it just gives us more upside bounce when the funds find that the real numbers are higher....
    8 Jul 2012, 12:48 AM Reply Like
  • noidea2
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    am visiting in The Netherlands and got 2 friends who were pondering for months to finally make the jump and buy 4s. Went to the aapl shop with them. For them that is already a quantum jump. They don't need to wait for Iph5. But the way they loved it and downloaded sailing applications and the like I give them 6 months to buy Ipad or switch into Mac...=)
    8 Jul 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • dab3z
    , contributor
    Comments (311) | Send Message
     
    I was in the Sprint store yesterday and saw a guy who had lost his phone (not an iPhone) buy a 4S. My brother got a 4S this quarter. The 4S is still selling extremely well. Not everyone waits to upgrade like you and I might.
    8 Jul 2012, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • bailinnumberguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1166) | Send Message
     
    Last quarters iPhone projections were so wrong that I don't even pay attention any longer. One 'respected' analyst was on record THE DAY OF EARNINGS last quarter as saying that iPhone sales would be around 22 million, only to find out a few hours later that they were actually 35 million. Woops.
    7 Jul 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Twolfe
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    I think it has been said. This is no surprise. Agreeing with remurrymd, the blog is a Big Duh. There is an additional problem, however, and it's on the bullish side. As with the mini, as with China Mobile, as with Aptv and any other potential surprises re timing, one cannot afford to get too worried. Keep in mind, the economic slowdown throughout the world, on its own will not affect Apple nearly to the extent it will affect other companies and/or industries. Apple could be seen as the best of breed in an ill-bred global slowdown or the port in an otherwise hedge fund storm. Get bearish at your own peril. Or blog negatively if you need a job.
    7 Jul 2012, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Wall Street Smart
    , contributor
    Comments (472) | Send Message
     
    28 mn is a good number with q1 projetions at 50 mn. I would be happy with a net 50mn in q3 and q4
    8 Jul 2012, 10:05 AM Reply Like
  • The Ugly Truth
    , contributor
    Comments (930) | Send Message
     
    ANALysts have been wrong for more than 22 quarters in a row. I have a better chance forecasting when my ex wife will be coming by to ask for her "allowance".
    9 Jul 2012, 12:45 PM Reply Like
  • Twolfe
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
     
    Hey, goofball, still cautious? Just wondering. Maybe the recent verdict will give you some hope.
    26 Aug 2012, 02:23 PM Reply Like
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