Stocks haven't exactly been following oil's lead, but you can still feel crude's impact in two...

Stocks haven't exactly been following oil's lead, but you can still feel crude's impact in two key sectors - energy and consumer discretionary - and that means you may want to target stocks like Dollar General (DG) and AutoZone (AZO) as well as ETFs like XLY and VCR.
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Comments (8)
  • Mad_Max_A_Million
    , contributor
    Comments (1175) | Send Message
    I don't know about that one. There are more stick-ups (one-gun discounts) here at the DGs than I can count. Never seen a stick-up at an AutoZone.


    Guess it's easier to rob a poor teenage checkout girl than to stick a knife or gun in the face of a couple big palookas at the radiator hose counter at AutoZone.
    7 Jul 2012, 09:12 AM Reply Like
  • glssmrbl
    , contributor
    Comments (1286) | Send Message
    I like that, but it doesn't seem stick ups are hurting DG's revenues.
    8 Jul 2012, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • PalmDesertRat
    , contributor
    Comments (3766) | Send Message
    A chart of XLE vs. XLY does in fact show a certain degree of inverse correlation.


    But the general trends are correlated. When the overall market-SPY-goes up,both XLE and XLY go up. When the market goes down, both sectors go down.


    I would argue that if a person fears a decline in the market they should move into cash. If they expect a rising market they should buy xle as it is the most battered sector at the moment and ought to rise more when the market improves.


    From my side,as a contrarian,I will buy more energy stocks if the market drops. But I'll go for the more aggressive companies such as APA,EOG,and OXY.
    7 Jul 2012, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • BlueOkie
    , contributor
    Comments (10335) | Send Message
    Track the 10 sectors from year to year! Each one will at some time be the one with the greatest return from one year to the next. Predicting which one will be in first and which one will be in last is the real trick. There is no pattern and just because you are first one year doens't mean you cannot be first a second year or drop to last.
    7 Jul 2012, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • Brendan O'Boyle
    , contributor
    Comments (1283) | Send Message
    Bought DG at 41 in Q1, sold for 55 on Friday.


    The market is pricing in too much growth here. As a momentum investor I shed a tear when I sold, but as a value investor I had to do it. Plus family dollar had relatively weak earnings and guidance, the run up has gone too far in my opinion. Still long TGT, WMT is a good choice as well.


    Bought TIF instead for 52.


    Also sold AZO for 385 last quarter and went long AAP instead at 66. I think AAP is more attractively priced and has a much cleaner balance sheet. Their earnings Q1 left something to be desired, but I view this as the result of a warm winter compounded by very high expectations when the stock was trading at 90.
    7 Jul 2012, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • glssmrbl
    , contributor
    Comments (1286) | Send Message
    Thank god! Finally someone is bullish on AAP. I thought I was the only one and changed my mind. I think it can recover just like all the other times the stock sold off.
    8 Jul 2012, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3121) | Send Message
    XLY is overbought.
    7 Jul 2012, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • viper32nc1
    , contributor
    Comments (94) | Send Message
    Brad’s Market outlook for July 9th


    Regardless of the news, the market has a good chance of opening higher Monday. The sell off was NOT as bad as news commentators portray it to be. The US dollar failed Friday to break through 23 which is at first resistance level.


    The SP500 needs to get back to 1360 then it will have solid support at 1343 level and the potential to move back up to 1370, which is right at resistance.


    Nazdaq has support at 2909 and if it can hold above above 2921 it will have solid support at 2909 and the potential to reach 2975 right at resistance.


    The Dow needs to stay above 12704 then it has solid support at 12660 with the strong potential to move to 12919 resistance which is 150 point gain.


    Currently not holding anything, I am a Trader not an Investor.


    My Disclaimer:Use and/or reliance of my picks is at your own risk.
    I will not be liable for Incidental, indirect, special or consequential damages or for lost profits,
    savings or revenues of any kind.
    8 Jul 2012, 12:32 AM Reply Like
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