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Apple (AAPL) might be forecasting a major drop in iPhone 4S sales ahead of the next iPhone's...

Apple (AAPL) might be forecasting a major drop in iPhone 4S sales ahead of the next iPhone's launch. Topeka Capital's "Apple Monitor," which tracks the sales of Taiwanese firms who (on average) derive 50%-60% of their revenue from Apple, witnessed a 13% M/M sales decline in June. That compares with a 1% average increase over the last 7 years, and suggests a large decline in component orders. Nonetheless, analyst Brian White is maintaining his $1,111 PT on Apple. (previous)
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Comments (22)
  • olsondavid
    , contributor
    Comments (18) | Send Message
    Well, of course that happens - it happened when the 4S came out also. We all have a rough idea of the launch date, and if we can wait, we will.


    The hand-wringers will moan about how $AAPL is about to crash into oblivion as a result, and would do well to recognize what happened last time. I hope they short the stock heavily so that I can buy some on sale.
    9 Jul 2012, 06:59 PM Reply Like
  • RFH2
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
    The "channel check" story is getting kind of old. Last Fall, we had to endure dire warnings from Ticonderoga about the supposed fall off in production. Of course, Apple will slow production of the 4S in anticipation of the 5 launch. With so many new components (28 nm, for instance) the companies now getting the parts biz might not participate as strongly in the new models. At AAPL's ridiculously low, below market P/E and a near 2% dividend, why run scared? And, don't forget that the 3rd quarter will be the beginning of the stock repurchase program.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:18 PM Reply Like
  • realornot
    , contributor
    Comments (1281) | Send Message
    4s is an old phone. You will hold and wait for the "5".
    9 Jul 2012, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • Twolfe
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
    If the stock price responds negatively it is an opportunity for everyone to get in. I cannot imagine that any downturn would last longer than a few days - or one - at most. Large investors know this and with that on the table large there should be no worries short or long term. Buy some now, buy some after earnings and watch the rise in August and beyond. The summer quarter should not matter at all. By year end this stock should be appreciably higher.
    9 Jul 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Sacto_Joe
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
    The slowdown won't be an issue in the earnings to be announced in two weeks. And it shouldn't be an issue in earnings announced in 3 1/2 months, although it probably will be as a way to "load the slingshot". Finally, if you'd read the whole report, it says there's nothing that says the slowdown has to do with Apple. It's quite possible the slowdown is affecting Apple's competitors, not Apple.
    9 Jul 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Canary Cash
    , contributor
    Comments (471) | Send Message
    I know eh! Seriously, my favorite thing about Apple is that it has a special all access card to the alternative no european slowdown universe - the best part about that universe is there is no slowdown in that universe!!! So cool!! AAPL to infinity and beyond!!!
    9 Jul 2012, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • Twolfe
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
    Best post of the day, including the blog. Way to look behind the numbers and offer something more than headline blather!
    9 Jul 2012, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • ebeuu
    , contributor
    Comments (355) | Send Message
    Dan Niles said something similar two Christmas ago; that was just prior to the 4s launch I believe and AAPL was trading ~$400/share, then. He was wrong based upon his channel checks; he said.
    And Dan has a solid reputation; I sold based upon Niles' statement.
    9 Jul 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • $vix
    , contributor
    Comments (453) | Send Message
    Dan Niles is another talking head who knows nothing. If he had any knowledge, he would be sitting on his 450 ft yacht moored off the coast of the French Riviera waiting for his helicopter to take him ashore to get into his Ferrari 599 GTO to meet a magnificent brunette for a night on the town.
    It was Dan Niles, who, many years ago, upgraded Intel to a strong buy with a 150 price target 20 minutes before the closing bell on a Friday before the Memorial day weekend. It was an outrageous call at the time and sent the stock soaring into the close. After the bell, intel issued a profit warning. On the next trading day, intel gapped lower and proceeded to make new lows. It never recovered and one would have lost more than 70 of their investment listening to this idiot. Niles dropped out of site into obscurity and lately has resurfaced again. Brilliant.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • remurraymd
    , contributor
    Comments (2287) | Send Message
    No big deal they are cutting back on the 4s to get ready for the 50 million iphone 5 lunch happening in a couple of months predicted
    by Munster of Piper to be the largest in world history. our fav chartist gets (AAPL) to $673
    around earnings.We hope she is right our ginormous options
    trade will hit big if she is. Up 335% $75k in a little over a week so far.
    STO Sep 515 P#15 to BTO Jul 580-615 Call spreads #50.
    9 Jul 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • bimmerguy09
    , contributor
    Comments (60) | Send Message
    iPhone sales always drop off in the few months before a new iPhone launch. It happened with the original before the 3G. It happened with the 3G before the 3GS, the 3GS before the 4, and the 4 before the 4S. This is completely normal, and despite declining sales now; sales will come back with a vengeance when the 5 hits the stores. This is a non-issue, but if Apple nay-sayers want to predict gloom, by all means give me an opening to add to my position again at a discount.
    9 Jul 2012, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Chris Lau
    , contributor
    Comments (1871) | Send Message
    If true, weakness in Apple shares will lead share price declines in the tech sector
    9 Jul 2012, 07:44 PM Reply Like
  • Cherry Picker
    , contributor
    Comments (383) | Send Message
    I'm not an AAPL hater although I have annoyed a few shareholders by accusing them of treating Apple and its products more like the holy grail than an innovative consumer electronics company. I don't see this tree as growing to the sky. Only a fraction of current users are going to be dropping their current phone for the next iteration. There are too many people here and abroad still completely happy with their current ordinary cell phone who have no desire to double their monthly bill. This probably comes as a shock to some techno-savvy Apple lovers, but the world as we know it today can and does quite well without apps, widgets, and siri.


    I'm not a buyer here--wish I'd been one earlier and certainly I wouldn't consider shorting the company, but its not a matter of if, but rather when AAPL will flatten out or worse.


    The iPhone has no more advantage over the market than the Blackberry had in the long run. The iPad will be hit with a barrage of competent competition with feature rich offerings at a lower price.


    AAPL is no NFLX, but there is an eerie similarity to NFLX in the ferocity of its fan base when the threat of looming competition is brought up as a reason to be cautious.
    9 Jul 2012, 08:06 PM Reply Like
  • dab3z
    , contributor
    Comments (312) | Send Message
    The iPad came out more than two years and there still isn't a single tablet on the market that comes close to the success of it.


    The iPhone came out more than five years ago and there still isn't a single phone that rivals the success of it.


    I'm going to keep buying into this holy grail investment until the competition convinces me not to. The money is just too easy.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:46 PM Reply Like
  • marksuch
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    Very ignorant, there is no threat of looming competition to Apple. There is no competition period. No other tech company comes close to how solid and stable this company is and runs. And Apple knows that the future is full of tech savvy people, they just have to wait until the stubborn adopters of "ordinary cell phone" owners are phased out and new tech savvy teenagers are phased in to earn more market share. Every year there are less people who crave simplicity and more people who crave technology. I might have made sense to a lot of people reading this and I know there was a very slim chance I changed your mind and most likely you will come up with a pointless response I will probably never see, but you do like most in responding to controversial tech news. You take our own opinion and try to find out how many more are out there that think like you do to justify the non realistic statements you are making. Lastly you are correct in one statement
    "the world as we know it today can and does quite well without apps, widgets, and siri."
    Which is exactly why Apple and most other companies are thinking about the world tomorrow.
    Sonner or later old ways of thinking are replaced and the universe keeps moving.
    10 Jul 2012, 02:29 AM Reply Like
  • Moosh
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
    That is great news for smart buyers, keep adding to ur stacks when it goes down. ""Conclusion ""it has been proven over and over it will come back up faster like it is on steroid))::.
    9 Jul 2012, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • Jeremy Johnson, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (781) | Send Message
    4s is outdated now, people would be pretty dumb to buy one at $200.


    As always, everything depends on the actual device: will the 5 be a good phone? Because competition is increasing. The Galaxy 3S and ONE X are both terrific phones, the former especially has been good enough to get some 3-4 generation iPhone users to switch. The reviews for the phone are generally fantastic with the complaints being centered on only a few mostly inconsequential items. The fact the phone is back ordered at many carriers speaks to its popularity, not to mention the delays in beginning selling the phone to accommodate pre-orders.


    Luckily for Apple, I think there is plenty of room to improve the current device and get people interested enough to extend their contract (I know some iPhone junkies have 3-4+ year contracts because they have upgraded so much and just kept tacking on years -- this is part the credit cycle at work in this industry). The bigger screen will be a huge differentiator -- the current phone is at the point where people make fun of your screen size, so this will be most helpful. iOS 6 is also important because the OS has lost ground to Android. Hopefully they will focus on allowing more customization and also make all the polish improvement we have come to expect. Finally, I am sure they have something else up their sleeve -- gimmick or not, that could help. Siri, which 85% of people don't use according to one poll I saw, still helped sell phones -- people need to be able to rationalize their purchase, so adding up these check boxes is essential.
    9 Jul 2012, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • DOC7
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
    I WENT INTO a Best Buy last week and it was near empty of customers. The next day I went into one of the Apple stores and they were standing shoulder to shoulder buying new Imacs I pads and Mac pros. Man next to me has bought every new thing Apple has produced and often two of a kind. It is incredible.
    10 Jul 2012, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Razorback
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
    LOL, Not a mention about the new Ipad. Think they might have sold 1 or 2 of those..
    9 Jul 2012, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • dab3z
    , contributor
    Comments (312) | Send Message
    When the number for this quarter is 20M, people will start waking up.
    9 Jul 2012, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • bailinnumberguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1090) | Send Message
    I remember last quarter when both AT&T and Verizon iPhone sales had decreased substantially, everyone was ready to jump off of a bridge. Lo and behold 35 million iPhones were sold and all was forgotten. Of course a lot of people are going to wait for the iPhone 5, but I still wouldn't be surprised to see 30 million plus iPhones having sold this last quarter. A lot of people buy the going out model w/ the intent of selling it on Craigslist or eBay when the newer model comes out. Watching the Apple rumor mill becomes almost comical after a while.
    10 Jul 2012, 02:27 AM Reply Like
  • user77a
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
    My wife is a perfect example. Contract on her HTL Evo just ran out. Will she wait for an iPhone 5? Duh... YES. Sprint should be happy they don't have to pay the subsidy till the new phone comes out!!!!
    10 Jul 2012, 03:00 AM Reply Like
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