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Jim Cramer dampens some of the excitement surrounding Arena (ARNA -4.1%), saying that the...

Jim Cramer dampens some of the excitement surrounding Arena (ARNA -4.1%), saying that the company's Belviq diet drug won't make as much money as people think. Cramer notes that Arena will receive just 40% of the revenues from treatment, which is anyway not as effective as initially thought, nor as good as Vivus' (VVUS) yet-to-be-approved Qnexa.
Comments (25)
  • TonyFu
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Listen to Cramer at your own risk. Long Arena at $1.58
    11 Jul 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • HYDRO
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    Cramer is lost.This guy is Bi-Polar.
    11 Jul 2012, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5152) | Send Message
     
    More Arena bashing. Each time folks like Mr. Cramer are critical of this company, people get nervous and sell their shares.

     

    This action allows hedge funds to buy those shares at a reduced price! Mr. Cramer did not elaborate on any real information or numbers. He simply said enough to drive the stock down today.

     

    Mission accomplished for you hedge fund buddies, Mr. Cramer.

     

    Comparing Belviq, approved by the FDA, with Qnexa, yet to be approved by the FDA, is not a valid comparison.
    11 Jul 2012, 10:24 AM Reply Like
  • vinhialpha
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Cramer has an opinion. Sometimes he is right and other times wrong.
    I am sticking with Arena.
    11 Jul 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • deercreekvols
    , contributor
    Comments (5152) | Send Message
     
    I agree with sticking with Arena.

     

    Cramer has an opinion and he has a TV show. A dangerous combination, in my opinion.

     

    How many reckless calls has he made over the years? Too often he doesn't have the time or the ability to discuss stocks and companies in depth. True, he does say that folks should do their own research, but clearly he can influence plenty of investors with his "Buy" and "Sell" calls.
    11 Jul 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • johnsnare
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    Cramer, who? This guy has been a blowhard all his life. Listen to him, and invest at your own risk.. He has been wrong more often then correct.
    11 Jul 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • WickedRx
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    And then ARNA will be purchased....
    11 Jul 2012, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • heather0707
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    Great post on ARNA message board by a doctor responding to Cramer's show last night.....

     

    REAL PHYSICIAN: CRAMER REBUTTAL 11-Jul-12 09:14 am A very important (but never discussed) point about anti-obesity treatment is what real physicians will prescribe for their patients in coming years. I have discussed with many of my fellow M.D.s, and almost all of us are going with BELVIQ instead of QNEXA, regardless of a CRL delay with the latter.

     

    1) We physicians all well remember the recurrent valvulopathies and pulmonary hypertension that occurred with Fen/Fen. QNEXA will contain phentermine (the first FEN). We have a right and sacred responsibility to assess risk vs. potential benefits for every patient for which we write prescriptions. Belviq causes none of these problems (less than placebo controls) in FDA data.

     

    2) The media (and Jim Cramer) have it all wrong as far as Belviq efficacy in weight loss and he misrepresented Belviq last night.

     

    *****The AVERAGE WEIGHT LOSS WITH BELVIQ IS 8% OF BODY WEIGHT AMONG RESPONDERS. About 50% of patients will lose MORE than 5% of BW in 12 weeks. If not, they need to stop it. Among those that do reach this threshold, 35% lost > 10% of BW, and the top 25% of responders lost > 16.7% of BW!

     

    3) Cramer is mistaken regarding his interpretation of FDA data. Regarding weight loss efficacy, he related BELVIQ was not placebo-controlled, and QNEXA’s data was. Wrong! He has it just backwards. BELVIQ’s data was placebo-controlled, and QNEXA was not. This makes a huge difference in accuracy of drug efficacy.

     

    4) Cramer stated that around 60-70% of patients will not respond to BLEVIQ. Wrong again. The real answer is 47.5% will not lose more than 5%, which makes them classified as non-responders. Nevertheless, do not ever underestimate the power of 5%-8% of weight loss. It can have dramatic effects on overall health, with significant reductions in incidence of Type II diabetes mellitus, coronary vascular disease, hyperlipidemias, sleep apnea, stroke , and even malignancy reduction. Our patients will feel much better about their overall health, and can use the psychological improvement to exercise more, with reduction in pain from osteoarthritis in weight bearing joints.

     

    5) Cramer made another blunder in attempting to use scare tactics about “hallucinations” with BELVIQ. The incidence of hallucinations is ridiculously miniscule as to the absurd. We will not go into the significantly elevated risk of cleft lip incidence in babies born of QNEXA mothers, and the mind-numbing “dopey” side effect of topiramate (called “DOPAMAX”). Who needs that? None of this was discussed by Cramer.

     

    6) Cramer misrepresented BELVIQ’s earnings potential because of “limited numbers of Easai drug reps in America”. How hard would it be to train any drug rep about a medication that will change America’s heath?

     

    7) Cramer misrepresented BELVIQ ‘s earnings potential because of its marketing company taking about 40% of its revenues in the United States. He neglected to mention that outside the U.S (Europe, Latin America, and Asia), ARNA will get significantly more, if not all, of the earnings.

     

    8) Cramer said QNEXA will not need to be a scheduled prescription, and BELVIQ will. He got this just backwards as well . It is highly likely QNEXA will be scheduled. BELVIQ has yet to be determined, but far less likely as highly classified as QNEXA, meaning more restrictions on it. QNEXA will have to be mail ordered, whereas most all pharmacies will actually stock BELVIQ.

     

    9) Finally, the ultimate blunder is that Cramer blatantly said that NO INSURANCE COMPANY WILL EVER COVER AND ANTI-OBESITY MED? Why? Because he had asked one! This is preposterous, because as we all know, covered formulary changes take time. When insurance companies can actually SAVE $, by eliminating other costly meds by addressing the root health problem (obesity), instead of its sequellae, we will have stumbled on a major solution to the cost of healthcare in America!
    11 Jul 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • yarkor22
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    If this is......not a success
    What is a success

     

    With numbers like that who will not purchase this PDA approval drug

     

    Please see below the influence after 4 years with 5% success per year, and 10% success
    You will be notices that these people will become models after taking BELVIQ

     

    ========================
    5% success per year
    ========================

     

    lb
    start waight 400
    ----------------------
    AFTER 1 YEAR 380
    AFTER 2 YEAR 361
    AFTER 3 YEAR 342.95
    AFTER 4 YEAR 325.80
    LOST waight -74.20

     

    start waight KG
    ------------------------
    AFTER 1 YEAR 181.82
    AFTER 2 YEAR 172.73
    AFTER 3 YEAR 164.09
    AFTER 4 YEAR 155.89
    LOST waight -33.73

     

    ======================...
    lb
    start waight 350
    ----------------------
    AFTER 1 YEAR 332.5
    AFTER 2 YEAR 315.875
    AFTER 3 YEAR 300.08125
    AFTER 4 YEAR 285.08
    LOST waight 64.92
    -----------------------
    KG
    start waight 159.09
    -----------------------
    AFTER 1 YEAR 151.14
    AFTER 2 YEAR 143.58
    AFTER 3 YEAR 136.40
    AFTER 4 YEAR 129.58
    LOST waight -29.51

     

    ========================

     

    lb
    start waight 300
    ----------------------
    AFTER 1 YEAR 285.00
    AFTER 2 YEAR 270.75
    AFTER 3 YEAR 257.21
    AFTER 4 YEAR 244.35
    LOST waight -55.65

     

    KG
    start waight 136.36
    -----------------------
    AFTER 1 YEAR 129.55
    AFTER 2 YEAR 123.07
    AFTER 3 YEAR 116.91
    AFTER 4 YEAR 111.07
    LOST waight -25.29

     

    ======================...

     

    lb
    start waight 200
    ------------------------
    AFTER 1 YEAR 190.00
    AFTE 2 YEAR 180.50
    AFTER 3 YEAR 171.48
    AFTER 4 YEAR 162.90
    LOST waight -37.10

     

    KG
    start waight 90.91
    -----------------------
    AFTER 1 YEAR 86.36
    AFTER 2 YEAR 82.05
    AFTER 3 YEAR 74.05
    AFTER 4 YEAR 74.05
    LOST waight -25.29
    =======================

     

    ======================...
    10% success per year
    ======================...
    lb
    start waight 400
    -----------------------
    AFTER 1 YEAR 360
    AFTER 2 YEAR 324
    AFTER 3 YEAR 291.6
    AFTER 4 YEAR 262.44
    LOST waight -137.56

     

    KG
    start waight 181.82
    ----------------------...
    AFTER 1 YEAR 163.64
    AFTER 2 YEAR 147.27
    AFTER 3 YEAR 132.55
    AFTER 4 YEAR 119.29
    LOST waight -62.53
    ======================...

     

    lb
    start waight 350
    ----------------------
    AFTER - 1 YEAR 315
    AFTER - 2 YEAR 283.5
    AFTER - 3 YEAR 255.15
    AFTER - 4 YEAR 229.635
    LOST waight -120.37

     

    start waight 159.09
    ----------------------...
    AFTER - 1 YEAR 143.18
    AFTER -2 YEAR 128.86
    AFTER -3 YEAR 115.98
    AFTER -4 YEAR 104.38
    LOST waight -54.71
    ======================...

     

    lb
    start waight 300
    -------------------------
    AFTER - 1 YEAR 270.00
    AFTER - 2 YEAR 243.00
    AFTER - 3 YEAR 218.70
    AFTER -4 YEAR 196.83
    LOST waight -103.17

     

    start waight 136.36
    ------------------------
    AFTER - 1 YEAR 122.73
    AFTER -2 YEAR 110.45
    AFTER - 3 YEAR 99.41
    AFTER -4 YEAR 89.47
    LOST waight -46.90

     

    ======================...

     

    lb
    start waight 200
    -----------------------
    AFTER - 1 YEAR 180
    AFTER -2 YEAR 162
    AFTER - 3 YEAR 145.8
    AFTER -4 YEAR 131.22
    LOST waight -68.78

     

    start waight 90.91
    ---------------------
    AFTER - 1 YEAR 81.82
    AFTER -2 YEAR 73.64
    AFTER - 3 YEAR 66.27
    AFTER -4 YEAR 59.65
    LOST waight -31.26
    ======================...

     

    lb
    start waight 150
    ----------------------...
    AFTER -1 YEAR 135
    AFTER -2 YEAR 121.5
    AFTER -3 YEAR 109.35
    AFTER -4 YEAR 98.415
    LOST waight -51.59

     

    start waight 68.18
    -------------------------
    AFTER -1 YEAR 61.36
    AFTER -2 YEAR 55.23
    AFTER -3 YEAR 49.70
    AFTER 4 YEAR 44.73
    LOST waight -23.45
    11 Jul 2012, 10:52 AM Reply Like
  • ganredsea56
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    I am buying more on this dip.
    11 Jul 2012, 10:54 AM Reply Like
  • User 73246
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    He failed to mention and it is my understanding they will receive all of the revenues from Europe
    11 Jul 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • barcaboyvn
    , contributor
    Comments (275) | Send Message
     
    I have not heard that the drug is approved in Europe!
    11 Jul 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • tahalb
    , contributor
    Comments (260) | Send Message
     
    Not yet in EU, but very possible by mid Fall
    11 Jul 2012, 12:40 PM Reply Like
  • busterpanda
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    Cramer-
    Getting talking points from Adam F is not doing your homework or show prep. Bring on the show an expert like Michael Murphy or the CEO of arna to discuss Belviq. The more you discuss Belviq the more informed viewers lose respect for you.
    11 Jul 2012, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Cosmospepper
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Jim Cramer is a windbag for the market-makers and always has been. When they need a short cover, he goes to work.

     

    When they are looking for a quick pop to the upside his opinion can change as fast as a republican whips out his checkbook at a Mitt Romney fundraiser!
    11 Jul 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • Day Trader001
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    Cramer is a “Lunatic” if you do not pay him he bashes you!

     

    Why doesn’t he go ahead, have his stroke, and get it over with, what a clown!
    11 Jul 2012, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • Rochelle Lynn
    , contributor
    Comments (19) | Send Message
     
    What is Jim Kramer going to say when QNEXA gets delayed or doesn't get approved to all the people that panicked and sold their shares on his word? How upsetting that would be and will be. I believe ARNA is a great opportunity and will make a lot of money in the future and help a lot of people. And it's NOT just for the obese. There is even a bigger market for the people that need to lose 20 to 30 pounds. Slower weight loss is ALWAYS better for you.
    11 Jul 2012, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • EHSTEINERT
    , contributor
    Comments (50) | Send Message
     
    All you have to do is go back and watch what Cramer was saying about Bear Stearns before they collapsed. You will never again risk 1 cent based on anything he says. He sold his soul long ago.
    11 Jul 2012, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • a631174
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Come on Cramer...do your homework
    11 Jul 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • AutoRegressive
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
     
    The drop gave me the chance to sell $10 put option contacts at July 20 for $0.31 each. Thanks for the free cash! It will go up again after everyone realizes his analysis is horrible. I would love to get more Arna at $10 - 0.31 = 9.69 but it wont happen. Long since $3.10.
    11 Jul 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Day Trader001
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    “So who is MANUPLATNG ARTICLES now”!!

     

    According to The Street.com ARNA is one of 5-TOP STOCKS!!!!!

     

    It should soar on a breakout of $12.00
    11 Jul 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • ianspivak
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    ARNA has sound fundamentals, significant market share and no negatives to drag it down. If it works for your portfolio, you should purchase it.
    I am personally long on VVUS, I got several options when it was $5 per share just before the FDA committee recommendation and plan to keep it. Might purchase some puts just in case.
    11 Jul 2012, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • Day Trader001
    , contributor
    Comments (671) | Send Message
     
    July 11, 2012 /PRNewswire/ ARNA announced today the filing with the Swiss health authority, Swissmedic, of a Marketing Authorization Application for lorcaserin.
    11 Jul 2012, 05:19 PM Reply Like
  • Christcom
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I like Jim Cramer and I've made money on his stock picks.
    17 Jul 2012, 06:56 AM Reply Like
  • Cosmospepper
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    You can take any "analyst" and follow their picks and you will make money on some of their recommendations and lose money on some of them. In all likelihood your success will be more or less in line with the overall market. The point I was trying to make about Jim Cramer is that he reacts in response to the needs of the institutional corporate powers who control Wall Street. If you can't see that for yourself then you are playing a dangerous game by following his "picks" blindly!
    17 Jul 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
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