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Why worry about hot markets for 2010 when you could think about 2020 and beyond, as Jim Jubak...

Why worry about hot markets for 2010 when you could think about 2020 and beyond, as Jim Jubak does: He likes India over China, Poland over India, and Brazil over them all. (ETF: EWZ)
Comments (6)
  • Jim Jubak you do not have good track record.
    5 Feb 2010, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • I agree and hold EWZ for Brazil's macro. Could be a long haul and wish I had taken a little more off the table now, but their dividend yield should be good for the wait.
    5 Feb 2010, 02:44 PM Reply Like
  • It all depends on commodity prices, i.e. on China continuing to gobble commodities. Brazil is very commodity dependent, Poland and India are reverse dependent and China is a huge unknown. Poland is in the best shape of listed countries and closer to developed than developing countries. I would put India first, Poland second.
    5 Feb 2010, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • For me the advantage of Brazil is not just commodities. They have been through a recent financial crisis and have made the reforms necessary (constitutional change to pay down debt). They do indeed have the commodities but are smart enough to understand the importance of starting the value added industries down stream from the commodities. These down stream industries are adding to their middle class, and eventual corporate customers. 2020 is a long way off and things will change, but right here and now Brazil seems a good bet to me.
    5 Feb 2010, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • That (2020) really is long term. Some of us won't be around by then.

     

    And the others have to get by in the meantime.

     

    Besides, the whole landscape will have changed by 2020. No use forecasting when you don't know where the starting line is.
    5 Feb 2010, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • 2020 used to be long term. Most of the people I know, were (two years ago) planning on being retired by then. Now, they plan on still having to work until long past then! ;^)
    5 Feb 2010, 02:52 PM Reply Like
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