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Apple (AAPL -0.2%) underperforms after Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves cautions the company could...

Apple (AAPL -0.2%) underperforms after Pac Crest's Andy Hargreaves cautions the company could deliver an FQ3 miss on Tuesday due to slowing iPhone sales, and that FQ4 estimates appear too high. Like most analysts voicing such concerns, Hargreaves still expects a huge December quarter thanks to the next iPhone's launch. Multiple analysts defended Apple yesterday.
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Comments (16)
  • Ken Sanders
    , contributor
    Comments (64) | Send Message
     
    Some analysts are really dumb... Particularly those who have tunnel vision about U.S. product release schedules, when in fact more and more of Apple's sales are occuring overseas, including China... Those markets get the iPhone and iPad later than the U.S...

     

    The prediction of a slowdown based on users waiting for iPhone 5, while still a factor, is less material today because of Apple's rolling schedule of product introductions into different markets... This is not 2009...

     

    China, in particular, is on fire, and buyers there are not going to wait for the next iPhone5 that they won't see until spring 2013...

     

    I'm always amazed by analysts who seem to talk to each other but don't seem to read financial statements, SEC fillings, sales figures or Apple's own announcements about product introductions into various markets...

     

    Apple is going to have a solid Q3, their Q4 guidance will be conservative, as always... The quarter after that, the 2012 holiday quarter, will be off the charts... Anybody long AAPL going into 2013 will do just fine... The stock will end this year at $750 minimum...
    18 Jul 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • Shnork
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    Some analysts are dumb, and some predictions are dumber.....
    18 Jul 2012, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • TwistTie
    , contributor
    Comments (2476) | Send Message
     
    All analysis and all predictions are dumb.
    18 Jul 2012, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1045) | Send Message
     
    Considering the analysts who I personally know, including those from purportedly world-class business schools, I would not buy a bag of apples if they recommended doing so. I've learned to trust people in the trenches, who actually know and understand the various products/services -- Doing so has consistently helped me achieve better returns.
    18 Jul 2012, 01:12 PM Reply Like
  • thealct
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    Look at their timing of these "releases". It dawns upon them 3-4 days before earnings "everytime" and then they are WRONG. They hide, rinse repeat ;-) Shake Shake Shake that tree LOL. AAPL is being heavily pinned between 600-610 this week. Friday is the time to buy.
    18 Jul 2012, 02:07 PM Reply Like
  • MusicFan87
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I am new to this board, but have been following comments for a while. Most people I know upgrade their phone when their 2-year plan is up, regardless of what "better phone" may be rumored to be coming out 6 months later. My husband and his daughter just upgraded to their first Smart Phones. He got the iPhone 4, and she got the 4s. My own separate plan just came up for upgrade, but I am torn between waiting for the iPhone 5, or getting the 4s now. I have a Droid X currently, and have had it since November 2010, when it was the best smart phone to get under the Verizon plan. The iPhone of course came to Verizon two months later, and I was kicking myself for not waiting a little longer (I had already waited 4 months past my 2-year plan expiration at that time, and lost patience waiting for the iPhone to come to Verizon). The only reason I may wait for the iPhone 5 is that I'm a technogeek, it's only a couple of months away, I am a long-time Apple shareholder (since $154, in 2007), and I'm curious what the 5 will be like, plus want the 4G capability it is rumored to have. I only know about the rumors of the iPhone 5 fall release because I read these message boards as an Apple stockholder and part-time Apple options trader, otherwise, I'd get the 4s right now, which I think is what most people do. When the cell plan is up, they want the new phone now, and upgrade. I am an anomaly in waiting for the iPhone 5 release, in my humble opinion.
    18 Jul 2012, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • raymondinperth
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    I don't mind these kind of comments , all i know is AAPL will rise back what was cheated or misled.
    18 Jul 2012, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • tomlos
    , contributor
    Comments (1147) | Send Message
     
    We're thinking to create a longer term position (potentially very LONG) in AAPL and wanted to get in around the $600 number, if possible little lower. Any thoughts not he possibility of that this week before earnings?
    18 Jul 2012, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (2531) | Send Message
     
    No one knows anything, but I know what I have seen with my own eyes. Since I have a big investment in AAPL, I check in on our local Apple store quite often. It was a visit last year which compelled me to load up around $370 when the stock was tanking and there were similar rumors to these going around. The Apple store is always packed and buzzing, even when the rest of the mall is quiet on a Tuesday morning. I have talked to the employees and they tell me it never slows down and the only problems they are have are not enough space to fit all the customers. Entering the Apple store is like leaving the rest of the economy behind. This is a company with no problems except hopw to service all their growing numbers of customers and what to do with all the cash they make. also how to battle cheaper imitations, sometimes with lawsuits. So, I predict apple will surprise to the upside, and if they dont this quarter, they will do fine then blow out future quarters. China and developing countries are a big reason. I am in South America now and see a lot of Apple products though they do not have a single office on the continent. The closest is Mexico. And they have infinite growth potential here especially if they make lower priced models. So in essence, stay long Apple. It is worth $2000 a share by normal metrics. And it is by far the best most successful company in the world, and has oodles of positives no othe company has. Brand loyalty, Apple stores which are the most profitable retailers in the world by multiples, and besides Samsung basically no real competition. Also expect iPhone 5 come come out sooner than people think to rain on Samsung's parade as they sponsor the Olympics. There's another huge plus. Apple hardly even needs to advertise. Their products almost sell themselves, and no discount pricing either so begtter margins than anyone. No idea why Apple is down $2 today but whoever is selling are the same type fools who sold me their stock at $370. I reloaded again at $575 btw.
    18 Jul 2012, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • bailinnumberguy
    , contributor
    Comments (1096) | Send Message
     
    We'll find out next Tuesday, but I suspect that the predicted drop off in sales of the iPhone in anticipation of the iPhone 5 will be proven wrong. Apple had all sorts of problems in China in Q2, w/ iPhones and iPads both being pulled off the shelves for meaningful periods of time. Also, the iPhone didn't go on sale until January 13th in China and the new iPad wasn't released until March. No such issues in Q3. There's no reason to believe that Apple isn't continuing to grow at impressive rates. This is why Tuesday's earnings will, at a minimum, match last quarters', and could be absolutely astounding (north of $15) driven by the frenzied buying of a full quarter in China and the full quarter of iPad.
    18 Jul 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Long 100 550 DITM calls, cost basis share price 585, no more upside call spread selling (and upside capping) - just long and patient. Q3 earnings beat, $12 range, sounds about right. Stock hasn't had the big pre-earnings run-up that one might expect (from 575-585 up to current 606 is a tiny 4% move at best) so if it's a blowout we might see a big spike up to 620-625 I believe.
    18 Jul 2012, 06:52 PM Reply Like
  • New Superhuman
    , contributor
    Comments (1182) | Send Message
     
    Wow, and if you're wrong about the earnings release you lose all your money. Amazing.
    19 Jul 2012, 03:14 AM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Not exactly... in fact, not even close.
    20 Jul 2012, 07:09 AM Reply Like
  • fafaforza
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    What's DITM? And why mention cost basis when talking about options?
    21 Jul 2012, 12:43 AM Reply Like
  • krames
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    I be leave Apple should beat on the high side and agree with Internal Source .I don't predict but hope the stock run's up but last year after the initial run up the stock pulled back and stalled because of the anticipation of the new i phone.I am long he stock but have no problem taking profits and getting back in a lower cost.Does anybody agree ? The last thing I don't want is for the stock to run away from me..
    19 Jul 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (313) | Send Message
     
    Depends on your cost base and time horizon. Own it as a long-term investment or trade it (which is very hard to do consistently). If you're sitting on a big gain, nothing wrong with taking a portion off the table and using the house's money.
    20 Jul 2012, 07:12 AM Reply Like
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