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Syria's civil war escalates in the wake of today's bombing deaths of three top military and...

Syria's civil war escalates in the wake of today's bombing deaths of three top military and security officials including Pres. Assad's brother-in-law, and analysts say the fighting could spill into the oil market. The fall of Assad could increase ally Iran's sense of isolation and encirclement, prompting it to test a nuclear device and lead to skyrocketing oil prices.
Comments (18)
  • jbind
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
     
    What makes you think Iran is currently capable of testing a nuclear device?
    18 Jul 2012, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • Spencer Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (412) | Send Message
     
    Good point, but even if they are capable of testing what makes these people think they will use it? It's not like Iran's leaders are any less stable than America's leaders (America's leaders = the war hawks at the Pentagon that control the President).
    18 Jul 2012, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (1906) | Send Message
     
    So you really think Iran's leaders are stable huh? LIke Syria, and Egypt, and, oh,,, never mind...
    Hmmm, well,okay

     

    I think, as things get closer to election, if it looks to Obama like he is going to lose, it could get hot somewhere. History shows populations of USA supports president in wartime. I for one, who has seen the Middle East, do NOT think they are stable AT ALL.

     

    Traveling in USA for now.

     

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    18 Jul 2012, 08:35 PM Reply Like
  • tonyeg
    , contributor
    Comments (171) | Send Message
     
    Read this article:

     

    http://bit.ly/P1qqsQ

     

    This article was published last January. The war with Iran is covert and on a time line that will last for a very long time next 5-10 years.
    Syria will fall first. Then the financial pressure on Iran will continue to mount. In the meantime the real facts are the world economy is slowing and oil inventories are growing. In order to make sure Obama is re-elected, Russia and Saudi Arabia will pump enough oil to make up for the short fall from Iran. Don't get caught on the wrong side of the oil trade. It is going to below $70 WTI. Worst case if Iran does something stupid to start a war (very improbable) it will be over in less than 30 days and the price of oil will plummet.
    18 Jul 2012, 07:20 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3348) | Send Message
     
    I don't think Russia is any too interested in keeping any US president in office - they see any change as a destabilization, they have no love for us. I do agree that we are waging quite a game with Iran right now, this administration has fallen in love with high tech "weapons" of all sorts. Regime changes brought about in this way do take time - a death of a thousand cuts. I think Syria, at least before the Arab Spring, was not as great a major piece in the game. The fall of Syria (and yes, always be careful what you wish for) will be a major blow to Iran and other major trouble-makers.

     

    Anyone have a niggling that today's "bombing" may have been a cruise missile or drone attack?
    18 Jul 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Early reports indicate the bombing was a compromised bodyguard. The attack on Damascus airport appears to have been with RPGs.

     

    I don't think anyone would risk losing a drone at this point. Anything larger would've been picked up by Syrian air defense.

     

    The crazier report so far that I have seen, indicates Syrian Army shelling parts of Damascus from outside the city, which suggests they have lost some neighborhoods. Some reports also suggest Syrian attack helicopters are strafing areas of Damascus.

     

    Give the opposition a little credit in pulling this off. They may be armed mostly with light weapons, but an attack on Damascus would've required lots of planning. That former Syrian general that Turkey is shielding would've been capable of planning this.
    18 Jul 2012, 08:53 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3348) | Send Message
     
    Gad, can't imagine blowing myself up, but an inside bombing would have a completely different footprint than a missile attack.
    18 Jul 2012, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Either desperation or disgust, on an extreme level. There are some very graphic pictures on Twitter, if you look for them in the right places.

     

    The bad part is that it appears Syria is fragmenting. There are more than ten distinct ethnic groups there. If some do not work together, this civil war may last a long time.

     

    http://bloom.bg/HbuGnA

     

    We might see an extended period of time of high oil prices. Brent futures are already moving higher.
    18 Jul 2012, 09:35 PM Reply Like
  • Maninder Batra
    , contributor
    Comments (572) | Send Message
     
    From what my sources are saying ,Its a lot of NATO special forces fighting in Damascus.the presence is around 500-800 fighters who have holed up in buildings and using civilians as shields while attacking the syrian army.This strategy was used by Muslim brotherhood /Al Qaeda and French paratroopers who surrendered in Baba Amr.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:18 AM Reply Like
  • Maninder Batra
    , contributor
    Comments (572) | Send Message
     
    Its west who playing games to save its financial system.Wars stimulate economy according to the Keynesian fools.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:20 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Right. Good luck with that strategy.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:24 AM Reply Like
  • The Patriot
    , contributor
    Comments (325) | Send Message
     
    What makes you think they cant ??. Thats the scary part.
    Even if they dont have the capability to create one - yet,
    it is plausible that one was purchased.
    18 Jul 2012, 07:23 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
     
    Syria is falling from within. I would not expect Iran to test a nuclear device under such circumstances. The fall of Syria may destabilize Iran, as activists and opposition groups may feel emboldened by the results in Syria. In the near term, this could easily have an affect on Brent crude futures. Europe may suffer under higher energy prices. WTI futures may increase due to an expected shortage hitting supply levels, though I would not expect that to last long. I will be watching tanker spot rates to see if a change there shows an increase due to safety concerns for tankers.
    18 Jul 2012, 07:25 PM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (1906) | Send Message
     
    Expect the unexpected, prepare for it, and if it doesn't happen, you should be fine. We are, of course, talking investments here, not politics right? Okay, then that being said, go with quality REITs. PM's and hang tight for the ride.

     

    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    18 Jul 2012, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • bob adamson
    , contributor
    Comments (4559) | Send Message
     
    The better view arguably is that significant portions of the ruling circles in Iran want Iran's nuclear program to progress to a point where its neighbours, including Saudi Arabia and Israel, clearly know that she can produce in short order nuclear weapons capable of delivery throughout the region by guided missiles which she has already developed. The position of these leaders is that by creating such an imminent threat (but refraining from actually producing such nuclear weapons) Iran will gain standing in the region but will not itself be attacked.

     

    Faulty though such logic may be, it is not tied arguably upon the course of events in Syria.

     

    This is not to say that the fall of the current Syrian regime will not itself heighten tensions in the region and thereby cause the price of oil to rise
    18 Jul 2012, 09:05 PM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2896) | Send Message
     
    I think you don't understand the situation.

     

    But suppose Iran goes insane, the ensuing oil spike will be a wonderful opportunity to go short.
    18 Jul 2012, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8965) | Send Message
     
    Why didn't we go after Iran instead of Iraq?

     

    If Iran is such a threat then that is where our bombs should have exploded.
    18 Jul 2012, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • rsswg
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Be careful. The military has a drone flying over your house as I write!
    19 Jul 2012, 08:30 AM Reply Like
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