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Initial Jobless Claims: 386K vs. 365K consensus (prior week 350K). Continuing claims +1K at 3.31M.

Initial Jobless Claims: 386K vs. 365K consensus (prior week 350K). Continuing claims +1K at 3.31M.
Comments (16)
  • Hmm.... it does not matter. If job data were to be good, then its a good news we rally. If job data is bad then QE3 we rally.
    19 Jul 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • Seriously, this could not have been a surprise?
    19 Jul 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • 52 week moving average of NSA jobless claims still moving southward...ditto for continuing claims....excellent example of why
    you need to look at Non seasonally adjusted data...
    19 Jul 2012, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • the problem with using a 52 wk MA is that at best you can say that it describes data at the midpoint of the Ma, i.e. half a year ago. quite stale from a predictive point of view. it's better to compare yoy to the previous week yoy if you're using NSA numbers.
    19 Jul 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • You are incorrect in its predictiveness....it is a leading indicator but I will let you figure out why it is....
    19 Jul 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • I suggest we look at 520 week moving average ... it is definitely smoother.
    19 Jul 2012, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • If I want smooth I drink Macallan...
    19 Jul 2012, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • New York and Pennsylvania still showing weakness....
    19 Jul 2012, 09:00 AM Reply Like
  • The fact of the matter is that we are not creating NEW jobs fast enough to absorb new population growth into the workforce. Thus we are falling behind. If we only create jobs to abosrb half of the people that would normally be entering the workforce, then sooner or later you have a huge pool of un/under employed - regardless of whether they are claimants.
    19 Jul 2012, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • And you need to be working to maintain your job skills and work contacts. Some employers are reluctant to hire long-term unemployed because they've lost their working discipline edge. Especially pertinent in areas where continuing education is part of the job.
    19 Jul 2012, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • Jobless claims are still in a clear downtrend since 2009, look at the charts.

     

    Private Sector Payrolls show 28 months of consecutive expansion. NO recession.
    19 Jul 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • Well you can blame that on population growth. 28 months at 137,500 per just to put 1/2 of the net population growth into the work force. Wanna bet we haven't done that?
    19 Jul 2012, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • If that is the case how do you explain the 8.2% unemployment since Obama took office. BLS is shuffling the numbers. Ask the millions on food stamps.
    1 Aug 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • Statistical inside joke....the Great Recession really screwed up the ARIMA models....
    19 Jul 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Look at economyinperspective.com to see GDP, unemployment, jobs, debt and inflation for every president since Hoover. It is my favorite site for past economic statistics.
    19 Jul 2012, 11:44 AM Reply Like
  • Stop looking at moving averages..they mean nothing in a multi linked bubble economy that is popping. Leading and lagging indicators are irrelevant in a bubble economy thats popping.
    19 Jul 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
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