Sell-side reports pour in on Apple (AAPL -4.9%): most defend the company, and suggest investors...


Sell-side reports pour in on Apple (AAPL -4.9%): most defend the company, and suggest investors look ahead to the next-gen iPhone and iPad Mini. William Blair notes Apple trades at just 9x its FY13 EPS estimate (exc. cash). Sterne Agee maintains a $780 PT, but is worried the new iPad's retina display is affecting margins. JMP, which maintains a rare Neutral rating, thinks "compelling Android alternatives" are as much of a problem as next-gen iPhone anticipation. (more) (transcript)

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Comments (22)
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    The speed with which Apple's predecessors fell from grace is what is most up front in the minds of many.

     

    mini iPad competing with sub $100 Android products and hoping the iPhone5 will be subsidized at competitive rates by carriers or somehow imagining that P/E is relevant in the smartphone world.... all sound like same grasping for straws.

     

    Do I think Apple is on its way out? No, but maintaining its growth rate esp. at the size it has reached is tough. Luckily there's that dividend....
    25 Jul 2012, 11:19 AM Reply Like
  • RycheMykol
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    What sub-$100 andriod device will the iPad mini be competing with? The Kindle Fire is $249. The Nook is around $200 i think.
    25 Jul 2012, 11:33 AM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Chinese, Indian and Brazilian products coming to and on the market now: if any mini iPad were to come to market, it would be positioned/sold as a low cost competitor and would have to prove compelling value over products half its price.

     

    I am not a believer in this idea/product/rumor, and consider it dilution of Apple cachet.
    25 Jul 2012, 11:46 AM Reply Like
  • RycheMykol
    , contributor
    Comments (354) | Send Message
     
    Post links to these Chinese, Indian, and Brazilian products.
    I would rather purchase a Fire or Nook over any Indian or Brazilian branded tablet also that I never heard of.

     

    The mini-iPad isn't a rumor either, it should be out before the end of the year. The price will be either $249 or $299 also.
    25 Jul 2012, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • Articuno
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    Maybe RIM will start paying customers $100 to take a PlayBook home...they started with paying developers already...
    25 Jul 2012, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Snoopy1
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    kmi, if you want to sound credible, please don't make up numbers like your sub-$100 tablets.

     

    Most of the Kindle is manufactured in China and Amazon doesn't make money on the actual product. So tell me how some other company can sell a Kindle-like Android product at half of Amazon's cost?
    25 Jul 2012, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • pman6
    , contributor
    Comments (270) | Send Message
     
    now that's grasping at straws. Apple sold 17 million ipads.
    How many Indipads and chinapads were sold last quarter?

     

    exactly.

     

    Only a tiny percentage even consider those inferior tablets with low resolution, memory, and build quality.
    The millions of people who shop the Ipad do NOT cross shop $70 chinapads.
    25 Jul 2012, 08:44 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Ainol Novo (Brazil)

     

    India: http://bit.ly/MHBCj5

     

    China: I bought a MK-801 which isn't quite a tablet (no screen) but there are a dozen products out there.

     

    Google search can be helpful.

     

    The typical response from the iFaithful is quality trumps price, but in price sensitive markets like the ones Apple is now entering that isn't quite true.

     

    I'll also point out that the Google Nexus 7 tablet is $200 and a compelling value deal.

     

    I'll further comment that I personally abhor both Android and iOS on tablets, I find them incredibly limiting/limited, but I am a long term windows tablet user so there's that.
    25 Jul 2012, 09:43 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Snoopy if you aren't informed, you shouldn't call out others for not being so.
    25 Jul 2012, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    pman the comment was directed at the commenters who somehow believe the low margin low cost markets analysts expect Apple to generate increasing volume from are unlikely targets.

     

    Understanding those markets requires rubbing elbows with the common people, which the iFolk don't tend to do.
    25 Jul 2012, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4528) | Send Message
     
    Couple of chinese products:

     

    http://bit.ly/Pq81sS

     

    http://engt.co/OH59Up

     

    And I should correct myself, the product I mentioned is from Brazil apparently is not, my buddy received one as a gift at a Brazil conference (every attendee did) so I got confused. Point is, there are plenty of sub $100 units out there, and they aren't great, but that's not their target either.

     

    More sub $100 Androids found via google:

     

    http://bit.ly/OH6avJ

     

    http://bit.ly/OH6avR
    25 Jul 2012, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • suddencall
    , contributor
    Comments (59) | Send Message
     
    My Android is great for crashes and a slow walk to nothing.
    25 Jul 2012, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (303) | Send Message
     
    Oh you mean JMP Securities of Alex Gauna fame? Called a "sell" on AAPL in early 2011 when it was 320, pushed the stock down to 315 or so - then wound up missing the run up to the 400 level and beyond only a few months later (and 500, 600+ afterward). Good call Alex. Well, you got on CNBC so I guess that was the plus.
    25 Jul 2012, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • phdinsuntanning
    , contributor
    Comments (1327) | Send Message
     
    get a Samsung and short the looser
    25 Jul 2012, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • $vix
    , contributor
    Comments (594) | Send Message
     
    I have not used an android based phone yet that can offer the reliability, stability and enjoyable user experience as the iphone. Comparing the Samsung III specs to the 4s is close on paper, but in the real user world there is no comparison. The iPhone is made with glass/aluminum as opposed to plastic for the III, the screen clarity is far superior on the 4S. Unless you are using your phone for almost all of your computer needs I don't need the screen size of the III at the tradeoff of carrying around a much larger phone compared to the 4s. The III still crashes with "Force Close" message while I have yet to experience any issues with my 4s. I find the III is clunky to use and it is not as smooth as the 4S. I enjoy the user experience on the 4s and look forward to using the phone unlike the III. Standy time and user time is better on the 4s. The aapl ecosystem is far more pleasant than android. I disagree with Mr. Blair that there are compelling alternatives. I am not married to aapl products and would certainly use products that proved to be superior. Personally, I prefer my Windows computer to a Mac so I don't see aapl being far superior here, but currently, the iphone 4s and the ipad are products with no competition. Spend an hour with the new iPad and then see if you could use any other tablet. I should point out that the III is the latest and greatest from Samsung and it is being compared to the 4s which has been around the block. While aapl is taking a hit today, it generated billions in revenue and profit and their "mature" iphone 4s managed a 26% growth rate. The earning miss is a function of gross inaccuracies by wall street over speculating on iPhone sales. For many normal salaried people, they cannot buy a 4s now and then pay a substantial termination fee to get into the iPhone 5, they will wait. I have not spoken to one 4s user who is not going to upgrade. I believe the 5s and the mini pad will be a boon to aapl. The question is whether hedge funds manipulate the stock back to and past new highs.
    25 Jul 2012, 01:26 PM Reply Like
  • Jeramy41
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Make the best product.

     

    Financial success will be a by-product of creating the greatest gadgets on the planet.

     

    It's a little tougher being the front-runner, but....

     

    It's good to be the king. Long live AAPL.
    25 Jul 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Tusc
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
     
    Just wonder about how much margin the Apple competitors make.Think maybe Apple has the lead in making profits, so bottom line is what counts
    25 Jul 2012, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • azreeal
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    I have been bashed in the not so distant past for saying AAPL at 1000.00 by the end of the year is absurd. I would like to know where all the enthusiasm is here at 575? Or at least an acknowledgement that the hype was out of control when the trend was straight up. I remember hearing about all the options millionaires during the parabolic move up, I feel sorry for the small investors who bought the top and are getting pounded, even though they are probably some of the same people who told me how clueless I am about Apple. Analysts should have to answer for unrealistic predictions, although I don't know how they could be held accountable. The more I learn about the market, the more I believe it's manipulated.
    26 Jul 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Snoopy1
    , contributor
    Comments (1110) | Send Message
     
    The market isn't manipulated, it's simply that investors and analysts vacillate between fear and greed - basic behavioral science.

     

    If you can control your emotions, you can take advantage of these sentiment swings.

     

    "In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine."
    -- Benjamin Graham
    26 Jul 2012, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • azreeal
    , contributor
    Comments (102) | Send Message
     
    Excellent perspective, thanks for the reply.
    26 Jul 2012, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • richbar
    , contributor
    Comments (1024) | Send Message
     
    You are one of the rational ones azreeal. My own analysis is that rapidly slowing growth and margin compression could result in an earnings peak in the 50s or low 60s (per share) in a few years, and perhaps a price of 800. I am long the stock but hedge with call options since I think there is significant risk to the downside. FYI, I'm the one who gave you the only "like" you currently have, as anyone who pours water on the AAPL parade is a pariah.
    7 Aug 2012, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1556) | Send Message
     
    Pariah? You're on a blog.....we get our opinions challenged all the time, bear or bull....sometimes it is the rational thing to be bearish or bullish or in between, but it won't be liked....in Apple it makes sense to me to expect good things in the next 6 months, I like their outlook further out too, but its ok to disagree further out, plenty of time to adjust right? I've disagreed with Azreeal, but I don't think I was disrespectful.....but reasonable bulls don't ignore competitive threats or macro headwinds, either....we remain attentive and watchful....
    7 Aug 2012, 02:13 PM Reply Like
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