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Initial Jobless Claims: 353K vs. 380K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K).

Initial Jobless Claims: 353K vs. 380K consensus (prior week revised to 388K from 386K).
Comments (34)
  • Ganeshdindodi
    , contributor
    Comments (75) | Send Message
     
    Great numbers !! Fullon recovery.
    26 Jul 2012, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • kwm3
    , contributor
    Comments (2453) | Send Message
     
    Don't forget that's "first time filers" that is usually reported. Stunning... absolutely stunning. Then again what would be a hiring catalyst? World war, government works program, a miracle invention that's labor intensive to build?
    26 Jul 2012, 01:57 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    Cull gov regulations aimed at voluntary transactions. These price blind interventions raise the fixed costs of production above current technology level's ability to overcome to produce a return that justifies the investment.

     

    If they were eliminated the risk reward ratio would suddenly become feasable for scores of economic endeavors that are currently unprofitable. If such a policy objective were put in place, inside of 18 months GDP would be at 8% to 9% and nonfarm payrolls would be north of 450k per month with U3 on its way to 4%. People would start looking for houses, real estate values would firm up, nonperformings on bank balance sheets would become performing or liquidated, bank capital would strenghten, and lending would begin again.
    26 Jul 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous#12
    , contributor
    Comments (552) | Send Message
     
    Claims continue on a huge collapse that started on 09. The Recovery is accelerating at a faster pace.
    26 Jul 2012, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • 2MuchDebt
    , contributor
    Comments (219) | Send Message
     
    Monthly non-farm jobs report is a much better indicator of economic strength than weekly jobless claims. What matters is income growth and expansion of the workforce. Unfortunately the "recovery" is not accelerating at a faster pace.
    26 Jul 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • youngman442002
    , contributor
    Comments (5131) | Send Message
     
    "Fullon recovery"...so I guess this is the new Normal....350,000........ it sure has changed in just one Presidency..
    26 Jul 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3342) | Send Message
     
    It's changed with technology - companies are in business to make money, not to hire people. The under educated/unskilled among us will no longer find a middle-class life.
    26 Jul 2012, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Spencer Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (398) | Send Message
     
    And I'm sure the President is 100% responsible for deciding whether businesses hire. He must have a busy schedule being the hiring director for every business in the United States.
    26 Jul 2012, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • 867046
    , contributor
    Comments (398) | Send Message
     
    Consonant with OM's observation is the recent news that Amazon wants to build a highly automated wherehouse employing lots of materials handling robots.
    26 Jul 2012, 12:32 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    Ironically the luddite approach invokes the price blind gov intervention which then actually produces what the luddites were afraid of.
    26 Jul 2012, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • kwm3
    , contributor
    Comments (2453) | Send Message
     
    We invented ourselves out of work. I'd like to see a union picket against the bots.
    26 Jul 2012, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    "Claims continue on a huge collapse that started on 09. The Recovery is accelerating at a faster pace"..

     

    We are no where near a recovery in the jobs market or the housing market for that matter. (real unempllyment is at like 30% or more, w/ a declining labor force each and every year) Yea so what the economy has stalled and stablized, for the moment..thanks to TARP and ben bernake for kicking the can down the road another decade.

     

    Jobs, foreclosures, are both worse this year and last yea.. Have we stablized the economy since 08? yes of course.
    26 Jul 2012, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Spencer Knight
    , contributor
    Comments (398) | Send Message
     
    30% real unemployment? I didn't read anything after that because that's just ridiculous. Just think about it for a second. Do you really see 1/3 of the populace not working? Sure, maybe not everyone works every day, but keep in mind the average work week is in the low 30 hours. So the majority of the work force is getting 2-3 days off a week.

     

    If you said 15% real unemployment I wouldn't question that. I wouldn't believe it, but it's at least reasonable. I live in a city in California with a population over 310,000 with an official unemployment rate of 11.9%. I see unemployed every day but it is nowhere near 30%.
    26 Jul 2012, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10466) | Send Message
     
    Spencer....actually the real unemployment rate is closer to 50% (the workforce participation rate)......now I am not advocating that all children be forced to work - yet ;-) ...... but at least they shoudl be made to do chores !!!! haha.
    26 Jul 2012, 12:44 PM Reply Like
  • mfritz095
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    If 350,000 initial job claims is a huge drop then that is a good indication of just how bad the new "normal" is.
    26 Jul 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    Its the new austerity of expectations. When gov runs things you find all their criticisms about high costs and low quality go out the door. Go to a SS office sometimes with a question and see what sort of customer service you get compared to the service level in any average casual dining establishment. In a free market, you have to be enticed to engage in transactions. When gov runs things you better buy their crappy products or you will be punished. What a wonderful utopia that is.
    26 Jul 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10466) | Send Message
     
    Hooper.....i am eagerly awaiting the government sponsored healthcare product, delivered by the government subsidized healthcare workers......(that's why I am thinking about going back to school to get my nursing degree - so I can take care of myself!)
    26 Jul 2012, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1146) | Send Message
     
    I am in the recession camp but this does not suggest an accelerating weakness:

     

    "In the week ending July 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 353,000, a decrease of 35,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 388,000. The 4-week moving average was 367,250, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average of 376,000."

     

    However, 1% growth is not going to move the needle on unemployment in any event.
    26 Jul 2012, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    this is an important numbe and it is a good one.

     

    E
    26 Jul 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9851) | Send Message
     
    what Econdoc said...
    26 Jul 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10466) | Send Message
     
    Let's see..... we want to measure the performance of the economy by looking at the negative (jobless claims) instead of the positive (new hires). What's wrong with this picture?

     

    We can't even find jobs for all (only half) the new people entering the workforce. That just means in 5 years there will be an additional 4.2 million people not in the workforce - regardless of whether they are getting unemployment benefits.
    26 Jul 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    Yes, unemployment claims are extremely volatile. They are not a number you want to lean heavily on for investment decisions. Even in years with big increases in nonfarm payroll numbers, you can have high unemployment claims. In theory you could have an economy transitioning into a new technology. This would mean lots of layoffs as people lose jobs in the old technology, but eventually new jobs get created as the new technology takes off.

     

    This is not to say that you might get a little worried when you see month after month of weekly of claims at 450k or that you might feel comfortable with month after month of weekly claims at 300k or lower, but what it does mean is that you would look at these numbers combined with other stats to get an overall feel of the direction of the economy.

     

    The overall picture these stats give right now on a combined basis is one of malaise. Thus if you were a politician that promised stimulus would jumpstart the economy, and 3 1/2 years later you only have a malaise, then the logical conclusion is that the jumpstart didn't work. If the argument is that jumpstarts produce malaise and malaise is better than collapse, then we need to start looking for solutions that produce vibrant growth as opposed to collapse or malaise. I'll take vibrant growth anyday over malaise or collapse.
    26 Jul 2012, 11:18 AM Reply Like
  • Econdoc
    , contributor
    Comments (2944) | Send Message
     
    in the normal course of economic activity - people get fired - think of it as pruning a tree - you need to prune a tree to keep it healthy and growing - even in a strongly growing economy this umber rarely wil get below 300k in a week - 350k is a good number and the 4 week average is now trending back down

     

    this indicator is interesting for three reasons -

     

    1. it is sensitive and leading - when things look to be getting bad - as in a credit contraction - before most other indicators have changed - businesses will start to fire - when that happens it spike up - lok at late 2008

     

    2. it is not sentiment based - unlike these various surveys it is a hard number - that's good

     

    3. it is real time - it is an economic pulse - the week to week varies up and down so that is hard to look at but the 4 week ave. is a good number. Right now this pulse is regular and strong.

     

    E
    26 Jul 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    You forgot one thing.

     

    Though the pulse is strong in a paralyzed person, that doesn't mean being paralyzed should be the new normal for a "healthy" person. Especially when the argument is made, that the paralyzed person should be thankful because it could be alot worse. True, being dead is worse, but you still don't want to be paralyzed.
    26 Jul 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    How many jumped out of the job market and acquired SS disability?
    26 Jul 2012, 11:21 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9851) | Send Message
     
    Psst..if you want to follow job growth look at the Postponable Purchases to GDP ratio...
    26 Jul 2012, 11:38 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    Or better yet, look at fiscal policy that lowers the fixed costs of production by lowering gov regulations on voluntary transactions.
    26 Jul 2012, 12:16 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10466) | Send Message
     
    Please help me understand. To me the concept of a Postponable Purchase simply indicates a pent-up demand. But the nature of the pent-up demand does not necessarily indicate a probability of the demand to be fulfilled by someone who can or will execute to satisfy that demand in the future.

     

    I don't know and haven't been able to quickly find how the measure is determined.

     

    If, in fact, there is a shift away from certain kinds of jobs to out-sourcing or technology, then there may be a structural pent-up demand that will never be able to be resolved. Logically thinking, there may be a low-wage earner, two - income family with one earner out of work or underemployed that has "pent-up" demand but they will never be able to engage in any economic activity that will be measurable vs. that demand?

     

    Bbro....what am I missing?
    26 Jul 2012, 01:01 PM Reply Like
  • muchbusiness
    , contributor
    Comments (247) | Send Message
     
    The ability to think irrationally.
    26 Jul 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • OptionManiac
    , contributor
    Comments (3342) | Send Message
     
    gov regulations on voluntary transactions

     

    Exactly what do you mean?
    26 Jul 2012, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6045) | Send Message
     
    First consider the theft transaction. I walk out of a store, and someone hits me on the head. Then they take my walet. A transaction took place, but I did not volunteer for it.

     

    Second consider a transaction where I am willing to work for $1/hr, but the law says I have to be paid $10/hr. Granted, I would take the higher wage, but the employer cannot afford $10/hr. Thus the employer would voluntarily pay $1 and I would voluntarily work for $1, but the law sets a fixed costs that the employer does not have the technology to overcome. Thus the employer does the work, and I go without the job. Both of our standards of living have been reduced, even though we would have VOLUNTARILY engaged in a transaction.

     

    Gov can be granted force by the populace, thus gov can regulate involuntary transactions. Gov cannot be granted special market knowledge by the populace and voluntary transactions make a market. Therefore gov can regulate involuntary transactions, but it cannot regulate voluntary transactions. It has no special technological knowledge about production to offset the additional fixed costs it imposes based on political sentiment.
    26 Jul 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • kwm3
    , contributor
    Comments (2453) | Send Message
     
    In the end, I've concluded to my satisfaction, that there are too many people, and not enough work that needs to be done. No surprise here... the full(er) employment days included housing as 25-35% of GDP (including ancillary industries) and finance at 15-20% of GDP. Both sectors have contracted in VERY substantial part and are NOT coming back for a long long time.
    26 Jul 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10466) | Send Message
     
    kwm3 - I like it...."The Fuller Employment Days". Sounds like a nice title for a book or an article. Remembering Mary Hopkin:

     

    Once upon a time there was a tavern
    Where we used to raise a glass or two.
    Remember how we laughed away the hours
    And dreamed of all the great things we would do.

     

    Those were the days my friend.
    We thought they'd never end.
    We'd sing and dance forever and a day.
    We had much “fuller” employment.
    The jobs all seemed heaven sent.
    For we were young and sure to have our way.
    26 Jul 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Nolesince87
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    This number will continue to fall NOT because the employment picture is improving, but because there literally are no more people to lay off or fire!

     

    Companies are at peak employment and are draining every last joule of energy from employees while wages stay flat. This economy is MAXED out for the time being. If you think the economy is re-accelerating you must have been asleep during the first few weeks of earnings season where RECORD numbers of companies are missing their top line.
    26 Jul 2012, 06:30 PM Reply Like
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