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July ADP Jobs Report: +163K vs. +176K prior and expectations of 120K.

July ADP Jobs Report: +163K vs. +176K prior and expectations of 120K.
Comments (22)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9323) | Send Message
     
    Good...no recession
    1 Aug 2012, 08:19 AM Reply Like
  • Mike Maher
    , contributor
    Comments (2482) | Send Message
     
    Better than expected, but still too far too low to lower the unemployment rate quickly enough.
    1 Aug 2012, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Well, well if history is any indicator (last month) the Obama boys will enjoy two days of celebration.... and then comes Friday with the tears and gnashing of teeth. I guess they take what they can get even if it is only temporary.
    1 Aug 2012, 08:20 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9323) | Send Message
     
    Jw....way too focused on the political....Business Cycle rules,,,,
    1 Aug 2012, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • jwbrewer
    , contributor
    Comments (317) | Send Message
     
    Business cycle does rule..but I not convinced the 'old' rules/standards applies any longer..if they ever 'worked' in the first place. Example, full employement may mean 8% unemployement instead of the traditional 4% or excess inventory in the age of JIT does not neccessarily mean business optimism but a slow down in sales. Besides ADP is pretty crappy about their jobs reports and notice it is lower than last months. Could the report Friday be lower than last months as well? Don't know, we'll see.
    1 Aug 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    We have averaged (BLS figures) over 150K private sector jobs/month for the last 6 months. If we had hit that 150K number each month, would we still have to endure this fact free political rhetoric...I suspect so. What other tax/regulatory policy is being offered that was not offered in the last administration?..I this not the same seasonal cycle we saw last summer?http://bit.ly/Myuu43
    1 Aug 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9323) | Send Message
     
    Never pay attention to the month to month look at year over year...got to see declining momentum...
    1 Aug 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Freedoms Truth
    , contributor
    Comments (833) | Send Message
     
    What new policy? Ignore that Obamacare job-killing tax-raising elephant (or should I say donkey) in the room.

     

    You may not be interested in politics, but political decisions under Obama have driven the economy (into the ground).
    1 Aug 2012, 09:53 AM Reply Like
  • InvestingInMobile
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Freedoms. you might want to go back and review the tape on that one. The economy was crashing hard into the ground late 2008. I suppose after 8 years of W. you can magically explain how that was not his fault.
    1 Aug 2012, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • InvestingInMobile
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    JW, I would expect that the Jobs number does not account for people like me who have gone from a payroll to a schedule C. I know there are more and more people going schedule C, so your supposition that the new full employment number may need to be higher is likely correct.

     

    I am facing more work than I can handle, so yesterday I called around to check with others if they had hours to spare. Everyone I spoke with was slammed and looking for resources. To complete the data point, I am in the healthcare sector in the northeast.
    1 Aug 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    FT...My comment was what new tax/regulatory policy is being offered by Romney that was not already implemented by Bush43...do you expect different results?...and with all due respect..."job killing"?...can't you come up with your own rhetoric? 28 months of private sector job growth vs. net private sector job losses under Bush43 (lost 646K total and 913K in first term alone)...where's the lucid argument for a Bush43 policy re-hash?
    1 Aug 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Freedoms Truth
    , contributor
    Comments (833) | Send Message
     
    W had a Democrat Congress that included Obama in the majority party to deal with in 2007 and 2008. Prior to that, with a Republican Congress, 6 million jobs created in 4 years.

     

    So yeah, get a Republican Congress and Republican president and we might end up drearily replacing the last Republican era of 2003-2006, where we had 6 million new jobs and 5% unemployment. What a tragedy that would be.
    5 Aug 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Freedoms Truth
    , contributor
    Comments (833) | Send Message
     
    Keynesian stimulus under whoever is president has failed and continues to fail. The $1 trillion in tax hikes in Obamacare are indeed job-killers any way you slice it. 28 months of low, underperforming, sub-standard and mediocre job 'gains' that are less than the growth in population is proof enough that Obama is a miserable failure on the economy. Somehow Bush43 is to blame for the i'net bubble crash recession that started under Clinton, but he 's also solely to blame for the 2008 crash and the Democrats that ran the Congress at the time in 2007-2008 are blameless? I dont blame Obama for getting us in the 2008 ditch, I blame both parties and the Fed for that, but we should hold Obama responsible for the fact that 4 years later, we are still in the ditch and have had the worst post-recession 'recovery' performance in our lifetimes. Just look at the last 6 quarters of growth. If you compare with the post-recession 2 growth under Reagan in 1983-1984 vs the contrast is starling - Obama = 1.5%, Reagan = 4.5%. Obama's policies are NOT working.
    5 Aug 2012, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • jpiretti
    , contributor
    Comments (710) | Send Message
     
    FT..I suggest you read about the "Bear Stearns Ruling" by the SEC in 2004 which, with executive fiat, allowed the (then) 5 largest investment banks and the 2 largest commercial banks to increase their balance sheet leverage from 12:1 (since the end of WW2) to 40:1. To put it in prospective, Lehman was 34:1 when they collapsed. From that point to 07' their was more Alt-A and subprime issuance then in the 15 years combined. 84% came from the federally un-regulated shadow banks (Ameriquest,Countrywid... Before 04' 60% of securitization was done by FNM,FRE...after 04'...more than 60% was done by 5 leading IB's. If Gramm-Leach and Commodity Modernization Act was the bomb, then Bear Stearns Act was lighting the fuse...and Congress had nothing to do with any of this.
    http://bit.ly/MhuyIR
    http://bit.ly/MhuyIU
    http://bit.ly/MhuyIV

     

    Are you sure you want to resurrect these de-regulatory policies?
    And to compare Reagan to Obama is silly. Reagan was the ultimate Keynsian. He increased our national debt by 2.89X in 8 years. When Obama took over the 09' fiscal budget was already passed and our national debt stood at 12.5B gross (15.9B now). Us national debt would have to be north of 36B after 8 years of Obama to match Reagan's record. Put that much on a credit card and you can really juice the economy.
    http://bit.ly/MhvX2c
    7 Aug 2012, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9323) | Send Message
     
    Year over year change in ADP now 1999...a new momentum high (post recession)
    1 Aug 2012, 08:28 AM Reply Like
  • 544
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    You need 360,000 new jobs every month for the next few years to bring the unemployment rate to 6%. I do not see it coming with Europe falling apart and China slowing economy.
    1 Aug 2012, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Nolesince87
    , contributor
    Comments (258) | Send Message
     
    Very bearish for stock market... absolutely no reason for any Fed intervention now, QE, or anything else.
    1 Aug 2012, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (973) | Send Message
     
    We don't need QE. Time to put an end to the Fed's destabilizing and distorting effects on the economy. It's time for the politicians to step up and take responsibility for getting this turned around. The Fed is doing nothing but facilitating the politicians in playing their little games when they should be focused on getting this country out of it's current quagmire.

     

    As far as the ADP, I put no coin on their numbers. Too many months have gone by where they issue a joyous number only to have it shattered two days later when NFP comes out.

     

    With regard to the business cycle, we are now creeping up on four years of "recovery". While the last two recoveries endured for up to eight years (due to overstimulation by the Fed punchbowl), the historical normal recovery cycle is five years. This "upturn" is getting long in the tooth.
    1 Aug 2012, 09:30 AM Reply Like
  • Freedoms Truth
    , contributor
    Comments (833) | Send Message
     
    QE wont help anyway. We have already OD'd on ZIRP.

     

    Not sure why ADP is not less valid than BLS. These all get revised massively, jump around etc.
    1 Aug 2012, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Insurance Bull
    , contributor
    Comments (357) | Send Message
     
    What we need is bond yields to elevate so older folks can retire and jobs can open up. Nobody can retire on 1% yields... All this bond manipulation is killing retirement portfolios. The Fed and the politicians need to step away from the economy and let the business cycle and free market run its course. Keep in mind, this doesn't mean every day will be glorious...
    1 Aug 2012, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (5348) | Send Message
     
    As if the alternative is "every day being glorious" with price blind gov intervention. At least you do get to hear a lot of creative excuses when they can't deliver on their promises.
    1 Aug 2012, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
     
    All of you are just wrong...especially bbro. Moving averages, y/y ... none of it matters in a multi linked bubble economy thats popping. The fact is the govt. wont allow the economy to collapse, so they WILL print more money..plain and simple... They wont call it "QE"..they will call it something else.
    The bond market is trashed. Only thing that has performed is stocks...how can you justify a DOW going to 13K, with 1.5% GDP growth. The market is in a new bubble, thats gonna pop after the US govt debt bubble pops.
    2 Aug 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
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