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July ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.8 vs. 50.1 consensus and 49.7 prior. Prices index 39.5 vs. 37.0...

July ISM Manufacturing Index: 49.8 vs. 50.1 consensus and 49.7 prior. Prices index 39.5 vs. 37.0 prior. Employment 52.0 vs. 56.6. Inventories 49.0 vs. 44.0. New orders 48.0 vs. 47.8.
Comments (9)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10235) | Send Message
    New orders is the most troubling,,,but this not a recession number
    (very slow though)...for those obsessed with central banks what will
    they do???
    1 Aug 2012, 10:07 AM Reply Like
  • mickmars
    , contributor
    Comments (1323) | Send Message
    "For those obsessed with Central Banks"


    That should be every investor. It's virtually all that matters anymore. The old models are now irrelevant.


    Why else would the stock market go up when economic news is worse than expected?
    1 Aug 2012, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1257) | Send Message


    ISM New Orders has a big weighting in the LEI. 2 months in a row below 50 with an increase in inventories is not a positive. Backlog down again as well.
    1 Aug 2012, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10235) | Send Message
    yes agreed that is why I pay attention to the new orders number although I found it had several false positives and insignificant lead time...but it definitely goes in the worry column ... my ADP momentum indicator goes in the positive column....
    1 Aug 2012, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (14241) | Send Message
    Fed will continue to do nothing (QE), while making soothing statements to keep the believers believing. They may remove interest payments on excess reserves, which would be yet another move, albeit slowly, in the direction of normalcy.
    1 Aug 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • jhooper
    , contributor
    Comments (6166) | Send Message
    BB may just extend the guidance for low rates to late 2015. That seems the most logical action to take. I don't feel as confident that he will remove or lower the IOER.
    1 Aug 2012, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1257) | Send Message
    Long term view of this series on Calculated Risk blog. Very noisy but generally rapid decline in this number is not good. Below 50 is not always recessionary but it is a strong warning.

    1 Aug 2012, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • David Urban
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
    More disconcerting should be the global PMI data which is close to or under 50 along with the rise in inventories and slowdown in new orders.


    I am watching new orders very closely as they give a indication of retail sentiment ahead of the Holiday shopping season.
    1 Aug 2012, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Josh ODonnell
    , contributor
    Comments (229) | Send Message
    Forget new orders. Id say the employment #'s are really bad. 52 v.s. 56? Horrible.
    2 Aug 2012, 07:44 AM Reply Like
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