Seeking Alpha

Market timers are more bullish today than they were at the highs in May, says MarketWatch's Mark...

Market timers are more bullish today than they were at the highs in May, says MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert. From a contrarian standpoint, this could mean trouble. The average stock market exposure recommended by short-term timers currently stands at 50%, compared to May's correction where is stood at just 42%. If these bulls get stubborn and dig in their heels, it's going be one heckuva run to the downside when they finally break. One caveat however: Watch the volume, if the bullish timers run for the exits too quickly, the any pullback will be modest at best.
Comments (9)
  • David Urban
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
    The AAII numbers have been oddly neutral with a weak number of bears. It is a real outlier.
    8 Aug 2012, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9911) | Send Message
    Every pullback seems to be met by buyers who hate getting 1% on
    their fixed income investments...
    8 Aug 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • berniespear
    , contributor
    Comments (235) | Send Message
    Very very true.
    8 Aug 2012, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • The_Hammer
    , contributor
    Comments (4137) | Send Message
    that's not a good reason to buy. there are downside risks. look at jnk which is getting big inflows. better yields than negative or near zero sovereign debts. Bernank really did it this time around forcing retirees into risky investments for survival ...they have no business being in who will absolutely panic at the bottom and sell.
    8 Aug 2012, 11:05 PM Reply Like
  • User 502794
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
    My sample size surely isn't statistically significant but every trader I know wants to short this thing.
    8 Aug 2012, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • untrusting investor
    , contributor
    Comments (9973) | Send Message
    What's to worry about ... surely the Bernanke & Draghi puts will last forever and keep moving markets up for years and decades to come yet.
    8 Aug 2012, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • nightfly
    , contributor
    Comments (1017) | Send Message
    Summer rally on extremely light volume - nuf said.


    Plus the Fed repos are pumping a lot of cash to the banks - clearly they aren't buying treasuries currently.
    8 Aug 2012, 09:15 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3083) | Send Message
    I've been observing too much volume concentration amongst large caps, and mostly poor participation of volume amongst mid and small caps. The ADR participation shows a similar lack of conviction. There does not appear to be enough daily volume to sustain much more upside, other than a slow creeping upwards motion in a few large caps.
    9 Aug 2012, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • David Urban
    , contributor
    Comments (1036) | Send Message
    I agree HH. The rally appears to be held up by an ever decreasing amount of stocks and participation has not been broad based.


    It is a sign that investors should take caution.
    9 Aug 2012, 10:26 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs