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Sentiment starts to turn, bulls gaining 6 points to 36.5% in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey....

Sentiment starts to turn, bulls gaining 6 points to 36.5% in the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey. Those bearish fell 7.6 points to 27.4%. It snaps a 13-week streak of more bears than bulls (just the 4th such streak in the last 22 years). In the other instances, stocks were higher over 1,2, and 3 month periods following.
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Comments (2)
  • Roman Chuyan, CFA
    , contributor
    Comments (174) | Send Message
     
    This is in-line with our PAR Model 6-month SPY forecast research. AAII Investor sentiment is just one of the 22 factors in our model though. The model turned positive in June, with a 3.1% expected return, and was confirmed with our recently published end-of-July report, forecasting 3.8% return. Our Valuation and Economic factors were net positive contributors and Market factors were a net negative. all the details here: http://bit.ly/M62uWS
    10 Aug 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • joem0525
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Isn't the AAII surver often thought of as a Contrarian indicator? When all the small investors who subscribe to the service turn bullish, that is usually the time to start bailing out of the market.
    10 Aug 2012, 11:56 AM Reply Like
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