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Scratching your head about a lower VIX (VXX -2.4%) even with stocks down? Don't forget the roll,...

Scratching your head about a lower VIX (VXX -2.4%) even with stocks down? Don't forget the roll, writes Bill Luby. Today is the day SPX options contracts roll forward one month. A particularly large difference between near-term and further out term volatilities causes the VIX to be substantially depressed, though this should diminsh over time.
Comments (10)
  • User 502794
    , contributor
    Comments (122) | Send Message
     
    isn't the VIX a measure of volatility? if so, direction is secondary
    13 Aug 2012, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • Tom DiLello
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
     
    Scartching?
    13 Aug 2012, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk
    , contributor
    Comments (3129) | Send Message
     
    I didn't scratch, and have made a nice profit...predicted move to 14 (which was overshot to the downside today)
    13 Aug 2012, 04:41 PM Reply Like
  • J 457
    , contributor
    Comments (947) | Send Message
     
    Complete complacency in the market today. Every bull confident FED will print. Meanwhile, back in reality the flock of black swans continues to circle. VXX at $11.20, a five year low, reminds me of just before the 2008 melt-down.
    13 Aug 2012, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • riskybz1
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I'm with you! Bring on the swans
    14 Aug 2012, 02:16 AM Reply Like
  • bagelbob1957
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Wait till overall trading volume goes up in Sept., Should get a nice pop when this bubble bursts. Patience.
    13 Aug 2012, 11:04 PM Reply Like
  • barrry
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Yes Volumes are very low indeed. A "pop" to the upside is coming, "patience" is the key, agree.
    14 Aug 2012, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • Rick A
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Vxx & Uvxy are my insurance policies. The time is coming when my 401K & portfolio will take a beating. AGAIN !!!
    The FED generated rally will dissipate. My 401K is up over 15% for the year...But, I'm certain that with the Euro, China and an Obama win, I'll be SOL. Worldwide there is so much going on...The elephant in the room is just being ignored...
    14 Aug 2012, 02:10 AM Reply Like
  • Joe Razorback
    , contributor
    Comments (281) | Send Message
     
    VIX Measures near term volatility I believe. So, it only looks at 30 days and in. So with expirations further away, you see a lull in the vix. Either way, I agree with everyone. Give it a week or 2. Sept/Oct Contracts will be HOTTTTT
    14 Aug 2012, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • sciencemagic
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
     
    Anybody have any explanation as to the VIX pop yesterday. It just didn't seem to fit the rest of the markets yesterday.
    15 Aug 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
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