Seeking Alpha

July Retail Sales: +0.8% vs. +0.2% expected, -0.7% prior (revised from -0.5%). Ex-autos +0.8%...

July Retail Sales: +0.8% vs. +0.2% expected, -0.7% prior (revised from -0.5%). Ex-autos +0.8% vs. +0.3% exepcted, -0.8% prior (revised down from -0.4%).
Comments (25)
  • Huge blow out beat, retail sales running at a annualized rate of 9.6%. So doomers, where is the recession?
    14 Aug 2012, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Where is the recovery?
    14 Aug 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • Two words: seasonal adjustments. Retail sales are down -1.3% MoM in the latest report without those adjustments.
    14 Aug 2012, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Who cares? Algos only trade headlines.
    14 Aug 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • There is a lot of seasonality to retail sales....be careful at looking at non seasonal data month to month...
    14 Aug 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • President Obama has the best economy in the world.
    14 Aug 2012, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • Retail sales ex gasoline y-o-y 5%....no recession
    14 Aug 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • bbro - nonadjusted number is down and the previous number is the 3rd downward revision in a row --- what does that usually indicate?
    14 Aug 2012, 09:42 AM Reply Like
  • This number is suspicious...revised down for the last 4 months.....the weekly numbers are not this strong...I wonder if they count Treasury sales as retail sales ......
    14 Aug 2012, 08:45 AM Reply Like
  • Real retail sales will be good...( a leading indicator if looked at y-o-y)
    14 Aug 2012, 08:49 AM Reply Like
  • This is the flawed program responsible for all the "beats".

     

    This has to be one of the weakest programs i have seen.
    MUNG doesn't begin to describe it.

     

    http://1.usa.gov/Nn55iL
    14 Aug 2012, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Explain ARIMA to the folks....
    14 Aug 2012, 10:31 AM Reply Like
  • Click the link brainiac.
    14 Aug 2012, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • ITG...
    14 Aug 2012, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • OK I was right..seasonally adjusted....

     

    "Instead of rising by 0.8% Seasonally Adjusted retail sales would have declined from $400.7 billion to $395.5 billion, or a 1.3% decline.

     

    And that is how data is fudged."
    14 Aug 2012, 12:48 PM Reply Like
  • The data is not fudged. I have worked with the government when I was an economist at ATT. They are highly professional.

     

    There are legitimate concerns about the government's X11 seasonal adjustment program, but integrity is not one of them.

     

    If you don't trust seasonal adjustment, calculate the year over year growth rates and check to make sure there are no calendar effects.
    14 Aug 2012, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • The real question remains: how was consumption growth financed?
    14 Aug 2012, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • so S&P 500 heading for 1600, with an economy firing from all cylinders, but US banks still valued at march 2009 levels?!!
    14 Aug 2012, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • on the other hand, stronger numbers indicate less need for QE3, rising interest rates, higher probability of Fed tightening (still very low imho). could be bad news for equities
    14 Aug 2012, 09:18 AM Reply Like
  • There are no bad news for equities. Bad news is good news due to the Bernanke put. Headline-driven algos ( 70% US market volume) currently only know one direction. You guys have fun. I'm staying away from this tenuous construct.
    14 Aug 2012, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • PDR:

     

    Higher interest rates, or even a remote sniff of them, will send equities rising rapidly, as Treasury holdings get liquidated.
    15 Aug 2012, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • Looking at the press release, averaging the last 3-4 months gives you a better sense of the numbers because those negative revisions were huge. Big drop from May's peak to the current level on the unadjusted data and flat with the adjusted data. That's flat at best on a month to month basis - y/y over year positive.

     

    Still tepid but obviously a growth month is needed to reverse the current trend.
    14 Aug 2012, 09:25 AM Reply Like
  • bot some tlt today at 124.03
    14 Aug 2012, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • So you have a loss now ...
    15 Aug 2012, 05:56 AM Reply Like
  • thanks for the 20/20 hindsight,it's very helpful
    15 Aug 2012, 11:05 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)