Seeking Alpha

The recent drop in the VIX to below 15 is about the 5th time at that level in the last 2 years,...

The recent drop in the VIX to below 15 is about the 5th time at that level in the last 2 years, notes MarketTech, and the other instances have indeed coincided with market tops. The pullback in the S&P 500 on the other 4 occasions tended to last for about 2 months and range from 6-19%.
From other sites
Comments (13)
  • Bman409
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
    This time it's different!!!
    16 Aug 2012, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Ray - Kitchener
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
    Bman409: You must work for Goldman's?
    16 Aug 2012, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (2007) | Send Message
    Summer doldrums, tweaked data, getting you to sell so you can buy later, (equals two commissions) I dunno, I am holding my REITs and ETF's waiting for a dip in PM's before its rise to new highs.


    Many things to watch, so stay vigilant.


    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    16 Aug 2012, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Seeking Alphalfa
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
    In early 2003, the VIX was below 15 -- held under 15 for four years -- and the S&P doubled over that time frame.
    16 Aug 2012, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • sciencemagic
    , contributor
    Comments (55) | Send Message
    Anybody have any idea as to the big jump in UVXY Tuesday? It seemed the market just did it's normal routine on Tuesday that it's been doing now for about a week. So, why the VIX and UVXY big jump on that day, especially with all the contango surrounding UVXY?
    16 Aug 2012, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Momboos
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
    Dude, early 2003 was a market bottom...
    20 Aug 2012, 02:37 PM Reply Like
  • Redfoxx
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
    This must be the end of the world play 21/12/2012. But who will be left to tell you that you were right. Lol
    16 Aug 2012, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • whidbey
    , contributor
    Comments (3398) | Send Message
    Looking good and on track. Watch bonds climb which is countering the VIX.
    16 Aug 2012, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • bamaclgs
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
    In spite of the recent run, I believe a correction is due. The long term outlook is very foggy with the lack of confidence caused by Washington's lack of direction. Support for my position is growing. I also have been wrong before.
    16 Aug 2012, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • MichaelJ8
    , contributor
    Comments (729) | Send Message
    technical's of the market look okay, except for the volume...SPY has increased over the past couple months on decreasing volume. Not sure what to make of this...
    16 Aug 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Ray - Kitchener
    , contributor
    Comments (74) | Send Message
    The Cheerleaders are out in numbers to push this market higher based solely on the printing of money. There is no growth, in fact negative growth if you remove the QE. The $US has lost tremendous value against other currencies. Unemployment is high, Philly Fed Index was awful, and yet the market moves higher. Look back to 2008. The market peaked on August 15th, and started to move lower after that. It really started to tumble on Sept 4th. Be careful. Capital preservation is numero uno.
    17 Aug 2012, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • justbs549
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    the market continues to creep up on a wall of worry and low volume. ...all it will take is one bit of really bad news (let's say Israel gets friskie with Iran, or we have larger jumps in unemployment than expected or declines in manufacturing) and the market will turn on itself if a heartbeat, with double digit declines back to 1289 support levels. But as others have stated before "I've been wrong before" (and it seems more recently in this contrarian market)
    18 Aug 2012, 05:45 AM Reply Like
  • Fiberwolf8
    , contributor
    Comments (56) | Send Message
    I don't see the kind of support being under the S&P at this point. Looks like a deep pit to me.
    18 Aug 2012, 08:42 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs