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As panic hits the pits, Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana makes a contrarian call, arguing it's a good...

As panic hits the pits, Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana makes a contrarian call, arguing it's a good time to cover bullish grain bets. The weather is improving, he says, and low yields are priced in. "There seem to be fewer catalysts for price appreciation." Yet as Commerzbank notes, it's too late in the season for better weather to help the corn crop.
Comments (7)
  • Wheat is bumping 9 again...I'd wait to see if this remains resistance
    21 Aug 2012, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Whitehawk: weather is still a factor and will remain a factor until the corn and soybeans look like a made crop next fall. The last big drought was back in the 1950's, I was farming then and still in high school. This years wheat crop may not even sprout unless there is rain. If it remains as dry as it has this year, the wheat crop is in danger of even paying its expenses. I wonder what the worlds crop situation is? I believe once again $9.00 per bushel will not hold the top on the corn price this year. Ethanol from food grains should be banned, We can make ethanol from greens such as witch grass alfalfa, sugar can rather than paying for a crop that goes into storage and stays there, Algae is a great possibility. We must stop using our food for fuel. Sorry Whitehawk got all cranked up went over board. Thank you.
    21 Aug 2012, 09:31 PM Reply Like
  • Even if conditions were perfect weather is no longer a factor. The exception being storms and hail that would further wreck the crop.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • I guess that is the first time I have ever heard weather is no longer a factor. To me it is the Number one factor in yeild, which makes the pricing.Last year we had a man made flood. Millions of acres were wiped out, some towns that had been around for well over 100 years, all in a rush to prevent a heavy carryover of water. What a shock the emgineers got. This year the Mississippi is so low that barge traffic is at 1/2 of normal.

     

    The drought has ruined in our area soybeans they were not even harvested tilled under. Corn is far below an average yeild the price top has not been reached yet, I would be interested in your statement that weather is not a factor.. Thank you.
    21 Aug 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • Weather is improving? Sure its 1 week before September lets plant a new crop of corn. I'm sure it'll be a great harvest.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Good luck with that.

     

    Tell us all how it works out.

     

    What's priced into the market is the USDA's insane estimates.

     

    We're not going to get anywhere near those estimates. The tour is forcing the markets to come to grips with that, and we are therefore finally seeing the price starting to rise towards the reality. This drought is a monster. Whether this was worse than the dust bowl or not has yet to be fully considered, but we've certainly not seen anything that has impacted crops to this extent SINCE the dust bowl. Markets should be in a panic. This is a big deal.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    21 Aug 2012, 06:14 PM Reply Like
  • What goes up will fall back down eventually, this is especially true with Corn, large specs were 88% long so there is a lot of downside potential when, not if, when the funds liquidate to realize these gains.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:13 PM Reply Like
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