"The hype concerns us, as it sounds vaguely familiar to another decade," says Oracle Research's...


"The hype concerns us, as it sounds vaguely familiar to another decade," says Oracle Research's Laurence Balter, explaining his downgrade of Apple (AAPL -1.4%). Balter is also worried about slowing sales growth, high expectations, and margin risks related to Apple's rumored entry into the TV and set-top box markets.
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Comments (101)
  • Joe Dirnfeld
    , contributor
    Comments (1124) | Send Message
     
    In the prior tech bubble, p/e ratios exceed 30 and beyond. What is this guy talking about?
    21 Aug 2012, 05:12 PM Reply Like
  • HarryWanger
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    He's basically saying, there's a hell of a lot of hype around certain products and competition and margins.
    As I keep saying, it better be one hell of a phone coming out in September AND a tablet.
    Otherwise, p/e won't mean much when the "e" part of that equation drops.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1556) | Send Message
     
    I think he just wanted to show up on CNBC, Fast Money.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • jbfiacco
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
     
    He got his 15 minutes of fame. Let him be.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:31 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1556) | Send Message
     
    People that wear bow ties like the one he wore should be tarred and feathered.
    22 Aug 2012, 08:11 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (9115) | Send Message
     
    Nothing wrong with some caution folks.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • gdavidson1731
    , contributor
    Comments (159) | Send Message
     
    "Nothing wrong with some caution", ok. But I still don't see what OR is concerned about. TV set? I can see lots of option for cable programming. I am paying for channels I never watch, and others they want me to pay extra to see. So maybe Apple with is tech savvy can create something other than whats out now. Not sure what is causing Oracle to itch.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • Dusk
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    "us" is he and his dog. But it sounds impressive.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • Dean Scarpinato
    , contributor
    Comments (367) | Send Message
     
    Along with the difference in P/E Ratios there is also the fact that in the tech bubble most of the companies had no earnings at all. Many were making their earnings by fancy (fraudulent) accounting and trading stocks which all fell big time in a vicious circle.

     

    AAPL is making $40B a quarter with $140 Billion to spare. I kind of think the comparison doesn't hold up.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:33 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1325) | Send Message
     
    Minus liabilities it's actually 90 billion to spare. Still not just couch change though.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • Brendan O'Boyle
    , contributor
    Comments (1285) | Send Message
     
    You mean $40B a year, they aren't making $160B a year.

     

    I don't know about this rally, the last earnings report wasn't anything to write home about. AAPL can't keep going up 60% a year for much longer. Law of large numbers and all that. I'm tempted to sell and buy something more boring. If they hit 700 I think I'm out.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • iamkevin1
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    the last earnings report was something to write, email, and text home about. It was a great earnings report and every company wishes it was their earnings report.
    22 Aug 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    "Minus liabilities it's actually 90 billion to spare. Still not just couch change though."

     

    Well, not quite. They have $163B in assets and $51B in liabilities. The $140B is their "Cash and marketable securities". This is a fine number to focus on for a company with zero debt. Yes, they show $27B in payroll as a liability but that is just like you showing your electric bill as a liability just before you deposit your paycheck. As long as your income is covering your expenses, the more important number to focus on is your savings account or portfolio value.

     

    In Apple's case, they have no "mortgage" or "credit card debt" so you really don't need to worry about what they might owe in payroll or to a vendor at the moment the books are closed for the quarter. You can if you want to, but you're just making extra work for yourself. The total amount of savings they have in "cash and prizes" is the number to watch.
    22 Aug 2012, 01:50 AM Reply Like
  • Querent
    , contributor
    Comments (47) | Send Message
     
    There is no law of large numbers.
    23 Aug 2012, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (7021) | Send Message
     
    @querent I believe the same no law ....no law of small numbers either yinyang
    23 Aug 2012, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1556) | Send Message
     
    "....no law of small numbers either yinyang"

     

    ...except the Law of Weak Arguments: the weaker your arguments, the more you reach for non-existant theories....
    23 Aug 2012, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (7021) | Send Message
     
    aapl the big disruptor ...the iphone even hurting pc sales.....
    4 Sep 2012, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • BRASIL
    , contributor
    Comments (70) | Send Message
     
    Again, what does that comment mean....."That'll do".... ? Is that Oracle's cryptic admonition to us....Enough..or, as in the movie, Babe...That'll do, Pig, that'll do...?..when the sheep are where they need to be....
    21 Aug 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • kenzfartzen
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    he must be an idiot, or a pessimist or most likely he owns puts!
    21 Aug 2012, 05:36 PM Reply Like
  • DocJohn01
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    He will have fun wasting cash on Puts…. especially if APPL gets into the TV market. As for the iPhone 5 I will be upgrading. But with that said I agree with most all….” Nothing wrong with some caution” ….”Hold”….”Buying dips”…..APPL rocks and so on……..
    22 Aug 2012, 01:19 AM Reply Like
  • spondrei
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    I think this guy must be short AAPL. With AAPL's P/E ratio and pipeline of products, where is he coming up with his figures. Not only is AAPL the greatest company ever in the U.S., it has the most innovative people managing and working for the company. I am buyer on all dips.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • HarryWanger
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    He said "Hold".
    He didn't say "Sell" and his target is 650, which is about where it is. Common sense. Why scream "Buy" like everyone else when you have no idea what the product cycle will contain and what the actual demand for those "products" will be.
    I trade AAPL up and down and have no problem with a call like this.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • jbfiacco
    , contributor
    Comments (169) | Send Message
     
    His $650 target is a year out!. So if you believe Apple doesn't go up at all in the next year, its a good call. On the other hand...
    22 Aug 2012, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • kenzfartzen
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    a really morrie
    21 Aug 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • gman27
    , contributor
    Comments (15) | Send Message
     
    I hope these insane comments about the most innovative company in the last few decades take off. I would love to pick up more shares of in the mid 500's. There always has to be at least one talking head that wants to squash the success of a great company... hey lets make headlines.Folks its going to 700 by year end, with ease
    21 Aug 2012, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • spondrei
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    At least someone has common sense. Three days ago bought 5, Dec $585 options for 92.50 and sold out yesterday at 110.00 for a nice $8750 profit. Even though AAPL pulled back a bit today, I am ready to get back into another Dec or Jan call option. I am with you. At least $700 by years end...
    23 Aug 2012, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (7021) | Send Message
     
    no crystal balls.in the house I do see 750 by xmas unless market reverses direction s&p back to 1150
    23 Aug 2012, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • DanoX
    , contributor
    Comments (3494) | Send Message
     
    "Zuckery" continues.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • zd2002
    , contributor
    Comments (222) | Send Message
     
    None of his reasons hold any water. "Slowing" sales growth is still 20% in a "bad" quarter. Many will kill for that. High expectations for the product, but very low respect for the stock price. You don't price a company growing at worst 20% at 13PE. That's clearly disrespectful. And margin erosion does not equal profit decline. Apple still earns 30%+ on their current business, plus whatever profit margin from their TV operations. That's still an increase in profit to me. Heck, their iTunes business is an $8B venture now.

     

    Having said all that, I hate the media hyping Apple beyond expectation. I'm a buy and hold guy and love to accumulate shares on an on-going basis. The media's infatuation with all time high, biggest cap really close the window on me. Mom & pop jump to the stock, and they are left holding their bags, like today. The last time, they had to hold the bag for 3 months to make any money at all.
    21 Aug 2012, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1325) | Send Message
     
    He commented on the potential margin issues on a product that is not officially released nor are there specs available. It is like me stating "I downgraded shares in XYZ because there may be margin issues related to the time travel structure as a result in the rise in metal and pixie dust"
    21 Aug 2012, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • HarryWanger
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    He also mentioned margin issues on other products in the refresh cycle and competition.
    Seriously, he just said it's a "Hold" - Why does everyone act like he just said, "if you own this stock you must be drunk" - as an analyst said last week about AMZN.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Glenn Abrett
    , contributor
    Comments (2067) | Send Message
     
    Not to mention no one ever heard of this guy or his 'company' before.
    What a crazy day -- Can't remember the last time apple jumped around so much since the maniac rally of the winter and early spring.
    If you were lucky enough to trade it exactly so you could have made a fortune. Not me.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • bill d
    , contributor
    Comments (1893) | Send Message
     
    "If you were lucky enough to trade it exactly so you could have made a fortune. Not me"
    And if you were unlucky???
    And if you were unlucky???
    21 Aug 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • irishdomer
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    He is the fund manager for Oracle Mutual Fund. 1-year return for his fund is -19.17% vs. +29.08% of SPX index. I will let the result speak for itself. Period. No comment.
    21 Aug 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • YONSU
    , contributor
    Comments (290) | Send Message
     
    Interestingly Oracle Investment targets healthcare companies and has only 1.75% of the total portfolio in any Tech company, also "none in AAPL", not really sure why he's talking about it. OK I guess for CNBC exposure, yep.
    22 Aug 2012, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Paul Bishop
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    It is hard to believe that CNBC would not look into this a little deeper before taking up everyones time. AAPL is hitting on all cylinders and with so few solid choices in these markets it will be the beneficiary of
    serious volume, i.e. today. The earnings are before the Oct. option expiration, which means the announcements + Hype + volume will certainly propel this stock. As an uneducated guess I would think $750 isn't going to be too much of a stretch. Thank you Steve.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • bill d
    , contributor
    Comments (1893) | Send Message
     
    Steve has left the building.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • merechino
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    Steve is in the cloud. Laughing!
    21 Aug 2012, 08:36 PM Reply Like
  • Glenn Abrett
    , contributor
    Comments (2067) | Send Message
     
    If apple outright loses the samsung trial the stock will get seriously hit. But I rate that as very unlikely. If apple outright wins I think we will see a 30 point or more pop on the verdict. I rate outright win (collects >2 billion and samsung smartphones are banned in US) perhaps 25% a smaller win perhaps 30%, no result (jury cannot reach unanimous decision on anything) maybe 40% and an outright loss maybe 5%.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    What if a hung jury, or both sides get confirmation on parts of their case? Most likely there will be an appeal by either side. Then onwards to the next Motorola lawsuit. The case with Samsung is obviously far from the last word in this, regardless of the outcome.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Glenn Abrett
    , contributor
    Comments (2067) | Send Message
     
    Yes -- This is not the last word. But think it is the most important so far. In particular if Apple outright loses here -- on its home turf -- with its best case -- it is unlikely apple will ever succeed in getting samsung products banned outright from a major market, nor will it succeed in getting samsung to pay it a meaningful royalty. Bad for Apple, at least somewhat, slowing the company's freight train momentum, and bad for aapl the stock in the short term for sure.

     

    On the other hand, a solid victory will set the stage for large royalty payments from android devices as well as the potential for keeping them out of key markets. Weakening android and strengthening ios. Very good for Apple the company and, I think, a rather strong short term boost for aapl the stock.

     

    On the other, other hand, none of this matters long term. Apple's long term position is so strong that it will continue to grow and take market share in overall 'computing devices', perhaps, long term, strong enough to establish a hegemony similar to the old wintel hegemony. And I don't think patents really matter. And I don't think that google/samsung/microso... can do a damn thing to stop them.
    23 Aug 2012, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    A hegemony, if truly successful, would get them anti-trust attention. To shut out competitors in any market segment would stifle competition. Investors may like the idea of AAPL becoming nearly a monopoly in smartphones, but getting there is not without problems. The other factor we do not know yet is whether the public will rally behind Apple after the lawsuits, or whether there is potential for backlash. Public opinion can change perceptions. I would guess around half the people now using Apple products would remain supportive of Apple, yet they need to continue to attract new customers. All too easy to make mistakes at this level. If those not using Apple products now do not have a favorable view of the company in the future, then a lack of other choices cannot be the only way to make them customers; people want choices and competing products. We should see some of this after the jury decides, perhaps by next week.
    23 Aug 2012, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1556) | Send Message
     
    So what % market share do they have in smartphones that represent a coalescing monopoly?
    23 Aug 2012, 02:24 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    Imagine removing Samsung from smartphone sales through an injunction and import embargo. A consumer walks into a store, sees a large iPhone display, a rack of feature phones, then a few HTC, Motorola, at least until those lawsuits play out, and then a few BlackBerry choices.

     

    This is hypothetical. I do not expect a hegemony. It seems some AAPL investors would like a monopoly, or the ability to shut-out the flat slab screen smartphone to any other company. Even that well-known Apple attorney slide presentation implied that smartphones with keyboards would not fall foul of what Apple claimed as trade dress.

     

    Smartphones are now thought to be flat slabs without keyboards. If Apple can litigate to become the only company that provides that, don't you think that would result in International Trade disputes, more lawsuits, and claims of anti-trust against Apple? It would be like wanting to buy a wide-screen television and the only choice was Sony, because only they were granted to right to that style of display.
    23 Aug 2012, 02:58 PM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1556) | Send Message
     
    If Samsung has to change designs, it won't be that problematic....but suppose there was no Samsung, that still leaves the majority of the market non-Apple....

     

    I think you misunderstand us, we are not looking for a monopoly, but the copy catting has been obvious and out of control....and Apple should be protecting their IP...especially against those who are turning Apple's ideas and concepts against them....some things should be prohibited, and some licensed under FRAND....to just steal what they want is wrong...

     

    If they want to imitate, then they should have to innovate and design around apple....not simply ape their products like Samsung does....I would think that Samsung would've violated your own sense of fairness?
    23 Aug 2012, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    I doubt either of us would've made it through the jury selection process. I'm reserving opinion until after the verdict, though after reading through both sides points I can understand why they are in court. Some people seemed to have seen this as a slam-dunk must win for Apple, but after reviewing the presentations I don't think the result of the jury will be that obvious, nor that predictable.
    23 Aug 2012, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (7021) | Send Message
     
    The jury selection....interesting maybe all Amish...
    23 Aug 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    http://on.mktw.net/PH65L1

     

    Split decision in court in South Korea. The monetary damages exchanged are extremely small. Probably the more important aspect is product bans for both companies, though that is somewhat symbolic with the bans affecting previous versions.
    24 Aug 2012, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1325) | Send Message
     
    product bans are on outdated products. No real loss on that front.
    24 Aug 2012, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    What we do not see on that is whether either brand has a different perception amongst South Korean consumers at this point. My other take-away from that decision is that neither company appeared to win. Now we just await the decision in the U.S.
    24 Aug 2012, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen J Melnykevich
    , contributor
    Comments (1325) | Send Message
     
    US decision is huge, with Samsung having more to lose. I think a decision for apple will be made, as I read elsewhere that 75% of the patent disputes are rulings are for one party.

     

    A loss for apple would involve only a small royalty paid per product which will hurt margins but only slightly. Articles on proceedings thus far suggest that Samsung was on the defensive and Apple made a better argument so we'll see.

     

    A clear winner in this dispute and all future disputes will be the laywers for both sides.
    24 Aug 2012, 02:29 PM Reply Like
  • Herr Hansa
    , contributor
    Comments (3130) | Send Message
     
    Yeah, the lawyers are the real winners here. Probably none of us here on Seeking Alpha would've made it through jury selection.

     

    What is tougher to predict is the reaction in the public. The verdict will make national news. Obviously there will be an appeal from either party, if not both of them. Either can claim they did not have enough time to present their case, which would be an easy reason to start an appeal. How the public views each company moving forward, is an aspect I think will be far more important than the decision of the jury.

     

    To compare to the South Korean verdict, some of the devices in question are older products. There may be some still on shelves waiting to be sold, but the real impact there is minimal. Some form of licensing in the future is more likely. If the court mandates/implies licensing levels, that can easily affect many future negotiations.

     

    After this is the Motorola case against Apple. How long will the public support Apple going to court? How long will the public side with Apple?
    24 Aug 2012, 02:59 PM Reply Like
  • solarjon
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    What Joe said!
    21 Aug 2012, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • raincity
    , contributor
    Comments (236) | Send Message
     
    Nothing wrong with opposing opinions. This so called expert can pick his side and I'll choose mine. I'm going with AAPL until there is evidence that the company is loosing luster.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • WisPokerGuy
    , contributor
    Comments (1379) | Send Message
     
    [raincity]... of all the comments posted here, yours is the single best and most sensible.

     

    Until Apple proves to me that they have lost their mojo, I'm riding this train on down the line. Personally, I think the iPhone5 release will be a seminal event with people lined up around the block to get this product. Therefore, unless the new iPhone is a complete bomb (something that has never happened before with Apple), I don't see any reason to even consider moving my money elsewhere.

     

    Someday, Apple will have a product mistake and the companies growth rate will slow. However, given the current environment, given the product release schedule with China Mobile, given the iPad mini and the possible iTV release (margins be damned), I don't see that happening in the next 12 months. Most probably longer. If this stock isn't trading north of $800 next year at this time, I'll be shocked. Also, keep in mind for all those "Steve Jobs isn't here anymore" bloggers, all of the products being released this year were projects Jobs had hands-on exposure in developing.
    21 Aug 2012, 08:48 PM Reply Like
  • Dialectical Materialist
    , contributor
    Comments (5080) | Send Message
     
    "Also, keep in mind for all those "Steve Jobs isn't here anymore" bloggers,..."

     

    The funny thing is that if you do your homework you can see that many of the people arguing about the negative impact of the loss of Jobs were very critical of him while he was alive.

     

    I am a basketball fan who hates the Lakers. When Kobe finally retires I'm sure I'll get a lot of mileage saying, "They can't win because they no longer have Kobe." But that hasn't stopped me from bad mouthing Kobe in the present while I talk about how the Lakers can't win it all. It's hypocritical and entirely legal in the world of sports. It's what haters do. It is no different from those people who spent years bad mouthing Jobs now saying Apple can't succeed without him.

     

    Yes there are some sincere Apple fans who are worried about the post Jobs company. But most of the noise comes from folks grasping for any reason to predict their demise. Some of these folks used to write for SA.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (303) | Send Message
     
    DM - looks like he got a gig on TheStreet and now you can see bits of his articles on CBS Newswatch or something. Based on...?
    22 Aug 2012, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • chasdip
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Wil the sec investigate ?
    21 Aug 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • edsonjh
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Apple still has plenty of room for growth in the near term but the entry on the TV market is critical to assess the ability of Tim Cook to run the company. Steve Jobs sucessfully disrupted the music and the mobile phone industries and made Apple to capture most of the profits in the value chain. If Tim Cook manages to achieve the same disruption in the TV market in the near term, I would be comfortable in buying a stock of $600/700 billion company. Otherwise, I would seriously reduce my long term revenue and profit expectations, as Apple can become another Microsoft with the difference that the latter is smartly entrenched in the business world. The mobile world has proven to be much more volatile and the current king can easily be the next ugly duck. Motorola, Palm, RIMM and Nokia are good examples.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Kistyk
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    edsonjh - "Otherwise, I would seriously reduce my long term revenue and profit expectations, as Apple can become another Microsoft with the difference that the latter is smartly entrenched in the business world."
    There are many companies that are moving to Apple for the enterprise. My company has just given us a choice of droid and iphone. 85% of the people already responded they wanted the iphone. Those wanting droid say it is becasue it has a keyboard (???). Also the company has a pilot for ipads for the sales team, which will then trickle down to the others that want them. I don't think our company is the only one looking to move from Mr. Softie......
    22 Aug 2012, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • dook
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    The problem with AAPL is not the law of large numbers or the possibility of lower margins. The problem is that some observers prefer to be contrarian. Someday, they will be right, but not right now.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • docproc
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    This guy is a 1 day wonder at best. He says this reminds him of the tech bubble. That tells me he is either too young to remember that or he is a BS artist trying to stop stock mo and make a splash. He will not be remembered for anything but incompetence(except by those that bought on this pullback). Apple could move 30 % tommorow and it wouldn't be close to a PIG. If he thinks Apple is a hold he must not like anything because Apple is rediculously cheap by any metric other than a grade school one(600 is more than 60).
    21 Aug 2012, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • wyostocks
    , contributor
    Comments (9115) | Send Message
     
    I think Apple is no longer a stock/company but a religion with a zillion zealots following it.

     

    Someone better help them when it does fall, as all the mighty eventual fall.

     

    OK. Zealots attack.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • ManoLive
    , contributor
    Comments (450) | Send Message
     
    I read the same negativity a few months ago when the stock dipped to $530.00. You had people saying they were't buying til the stock hit $450.00. Needless to say, the pundits were wrong, and have been wrong for years. You can stay on the sidelines, I'll keep making tons of capital on this one of a kind stock. Buy on the dips, and hold. You can't go wrong. Long appl.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:55 PM Reply Like
  • HarryWanger
    , contributor
    Comments (189) | Send Message
     
    "Needless to say, the pundits were wrong, and have been wrong for years."
    Really? I rarely hear anyone say anything other than BUY APPL any time I turn on CNBC.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • what do I know
    , contributor
    Comments (1044) | Send Message
     
    My issues are these questions: In presenting his view points the analyst presented the growing rate of Apple sale volume but then he knows the stock as a "value'' stock, and he kept saying that the market does not see Apple as a growth stock. Nowhere in valuing the stock the growth of revenue enters in any body's calculation. The analyst should know that the stock is an unusual low p/e price and I would like to see the stock as a ordinary where people can use the growth rate in eps and dividend to value its an ordinary stock.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • apple_investor
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
     
    Whenever Apple's P/E gets over 15 these guys come out from under their rock. It doesn't matter that Apple is the cheapest growth stock on the planet. It doesn't matter that we're on the verge of the biggest product launch in history (iPhone 5) or that the mini iPad will give Apple a 70+% market share in tablets. Nothing matters except keeping the stock price down, for reasons only known to the rogue analyst.

     

    It's for this reason I've modeled for Apple's price to stay in a range of 12.5 to 15 times earnings, regardless of growth rate or new product intros. Trailing EPS will be $45 in January and Apple will trade up to $675 or $680 at options expiration - 15 times. That's why I sold $680 calls against my $400 & $470 leaps. We'll see how it plays out.
    21 Aug 2012, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • Anonymous Wizard
    , contributor
    Comments (4257) | Send Message
     
    How many times have I heard this nonsense with Apple over the last decade. It never fails. You get one guy comes out and goes the opposite of what is inevitable with Apple. We all know the iPhone5 is coming and many have confirmed as I myself are waiting for this as their next phone. This product alone justifies it all. Folks, many are calling $900+ over the next year or so and we are only in the mid to upper 600's. Yes, expectations are getting high but there are more catalysts coming besides the iPhone5. This guy is just another one that either doesn't know his subject matter, is building a fear factor to short the stock or you can fill in the blanks. We have a possible iPad Mini, possible Apple TV box improvement/service, potential stock split, China Mobile coming, Holiday season around the corner and that's not to mention a possible iTV system next year. We only need the iPhone5 but there's more than that coming to the world soon. Don't listen to this garbage.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (7021) | Send Message
     
    another nominee for the Lenny award......
    22 Aug 2012, 01:03 AM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1556) | Send Message
     
    Watch this guy presenting his thesis on Fast Money, on iTunes....

     

    He got my vote for the award....
    22 Aug 2012, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • johnycarrs
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    The TV comment is ludicrous. If the gross margin is compressed due to the addition of a TV type device to the product line but its adds to the EPS then it is net positive for the stock.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:26 PM Reply Like
  • Day Trader001
    , contributor
    Comments (779) | Send Message
     
    I think todays drop was more of a profit-taking move than anything!

     

    My few thousand shares purchased last week made a nice profit today.
    This clown with Oracle is getting far too much credit for a “publicity grab”!
    I do not believe this one desktop analyst had anything to do with AAPL’s dip.

     

    All I can say is, it is buy time again…$
    21 Aug 2012, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (303) | Send Message
     
    Clown is right - did you see the bow tie and suspenders? Unbelievable that someone goes on national TV like that and expects to be taken seriously.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:50 AM Reply Like
  • Day Trader001
    , contributor
    Comments (779) | Send Message
     
    No glad I missed it! Pretty much quit watching CNBC, sick of watching people make fools out of themselves reading news, and Cramer’s head spin around!
    They always put on anything un-news worthy, look at Facebook.
    22 Aug 2012, 06:20 AM Reply Like
  • bjnflicks
    , contributor
    Comments (4335) | Send Message
     
    These so-called analysts are dead wrong. Several reasons why. Number one, it's not hype, it's real. Apple has the physical products tens of millions of people will continue buying with large profit margins and incredible brand loyalty. Two, Apple has very little competition except at the lower end, and almost none in tablets. They are also exploding in enterprise. Apple TV is irrelevant. The value I put on Apple does not even include any potential move into TV. And whatever they do is bound to be at least fairly successful. Three, these analysts say hold the stock but have a target lower than the current price. That doesn't even make any sense. Plus, the valuablation of the stock by any metric is low, cheap and undervalued, obviously.

     

    What I suspect is shenanigans. A short term trade b acked b y a phony downgrade. Either that or these people simply have no idesa what they are talking about and no one should ever do business with them. That said, it is only natural for a retrenchment after a sharp run-up. for any stock at any time. And if Apple can hold 650, then the next leg up is 690 then 730 then 770 etc. So far so good. And also, everyone knows the iPhone 5 (coming in just a few weeks) will be the biggest product launch in hiostory. So unless Apple makes some kind of major error, I see $800 or more by January when earnings get announced. Just objective logic, no hype.
    21 Aug 2012, 07:54 PM Reply Like
  • irishdomer
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    He is the fund manager for Oracle Mutual Fund.

     

    YTD return for Oracle Mutual Fund: -13.66%
    YTD return for SPX index: +14.37%
    YTD return for APPL: +61.99%
    21 Aug 2012, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • VictorHAustin
    , contributor
    Comments (824) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. I was wondering why nobody mentions their track record.
    22 Aug 2012, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • tmurphy1x
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Here's my APPL methodology (Disclosure: long for a long time). I check out an Apple Store in a second-tier metropolitan area, on a regular basis just to do a headcount - off peak hours, mid-week. A great algorithm (for all you tech heads) to get a feel for buzz and real product demand. My recommendation today is Buy.
    21 Aug 2012, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • vikashait
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Apple is not only about gadgets like iphone, ipad but its about revolution. I can imagine we all only using string free gadget few years later.
    If that's gonna happen than Apple would be earning far more than would google has earned so far through ad sense (controlled and managed through ios). Apple is on the right path on their plan to keep the investors interested with their new innovative out of the box ideas and plan.
    I am long on AAPL and don't care about these news which just come up to show their presence. GO AAPL GO,

     

    Tomorrow will tell the story...
    21 Aug 2012, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • bobbarnett
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    When my GF still can't figure out the FIOS remote, and always runs to my Imac to do major work, that clown does not know of what he speaks when it comes to an APPLE interface or TV
    21 Aug 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • wallberg
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    Issac Balter purchased his PUTS Monday afternoon and made about 800 each today after doing his APPLE downgrade. He is not the first to do this. There have been around 8 other people who make their money that way than get MARIA to invite them on the CNBC show that same day! Apple will be in the 750 per share range in October or before so do not worry. I hear his fund is down 19.77% for the year so why even put any faith in his comments!
    21 Aug 2012, 09:34 PM Reply Like
  • irishdomer
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    He is the portfolio manager for Oracle Mutual Fund. 1-year return for the fund is -19.17%. Based on this kind of performance, he certainly is no Oracle of Omaha.

     

    I suggest that he spend more time about his portfolio return than going on national TV worry about AAPL being an overvalued investment.
    22 Aug 2012, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  • easyboy697
    , contributor
    Comments (115) | Send Message
     
    What has changed between yesterday and today??? Absolutely nothing. Apple is a great company run by some really bright people who don't look at (or even care) about the stock price on a day to day basis. They know that if they keep doing what they are doing, the stock price will eventually end up where it should be.

     

    I thought the reaction to the past quarter's earnings by the so called "experts" was a joke; it was so evident why iPhone sales slowed, yet you would think it was the end of the world. There isn't a company on this planet that wouldn't trade their best quarterly results for Apple's worst.
    21 Aug 2012, 09:36 PM Reply Like
  • Day Trader001
    , contributor
    Comments (779) | Send Message
     
    What happened was “money” if you can make $30-$40 per share in a couple of weeks why wouldn’t you take some off the table and bank it!

     

    How often do you have the chance to do that, you can always buy back in. This is a unique money making opportunity with AAPL so be thankful for “your peak” and “your dip”$$$$ ;)

     

    You are also correct about last Qtr!
    22 Aug 2012, 06:29 AM Reply Like
  • LUCBEYAERT
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Nobody knows the impact when they will enter the TV world....there is a new generation coming who likes the Apple approach. Existing media & cable cies start to get afraid...A good reason to buy Apple on every dip....this company knows how to innovate & to please his very loyal customers
    21 Aug 2012, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • arvml
    , contributor
    Comments (84) | Send Message
     
    This guy made no sense on CNBC. I can't believe they put him on the air with his weak argument about Apple TV. Did you see that bow tie? I've seen better ties on on circus clowns.
    21 Aug 2012, 10:15 PM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (303) | Send Message
     
    He was nervous, incoherent and looked more Iike a comic that anything else. Gene Munster in another segment said that the downgrade "has nothing to do with the future of the stock" and, like we all see with these no-name research firms that want to get publicity, it was more of a "promotional event" to "get someone's name out there". Use it as a buying opportunity around 650 or so if it gets there again.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:49 AM Reply Like
  • Ronin.
    , contributor
    Comments (1556) | Send Message
     
    He said 650 price target, AAPL will go nowhere for the next year....

     

    let's see if that prediction can even last a couple of weeks....
    22 Aug 2012, 03:01 AM Reply Like
  • meryle
    , contributor
    Comments (34) | Send Message
     
    Before the last earnings, AAPl didn't officially warn, but I do remember it said that earnings might not be as high as expected...something to that effect. Everyone seemed to have forgotten about that subtle statement and the stock was hyped and then fell. It pays to listen and finally, to remember. I don't agree with the downgrade and as was previously mentioned, those old internet stocks were not making money and the PE's were off the chart. The big survivor was AMZN and it's PE is still too high. Aapl, on the other hand could buy the US treasury. This downgrade is nuts.
    22 Aug 2012, 12:15 AM Reply Like
  • irishdomer
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Here is Balter's fund allocation in term of sectors:

     

    Oil&Gas 30.33%
    Oil&Gas Services 24.68%
    Mining 18.05%
    Chemicals 8.74%
    Iron/Steel 7.00%
    Coal 3.35%

     

    Clearly, he prefers the energy sector...

     

    I wonder if this is just a publicity stunt to get on TV.
    22 Aug 2012, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (303) | Send Message
     
    Clearly was exactly that. Problem is, once he got on there he looked like the lead-in act for Seinfeld in a nightclub, not a serious analysts with facts to back up assertions.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:54 AM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (7021) | Send Message
     
    Everytime aapl has a good run an analyst does this....... tomorrow Foxconn will have a suicide due to aapl or an ipad catches on fire........
    22 Aug 2012, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (303) | Send Message
     
    Hacks, some of them. Just listen to the good ones and buy on dips.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:54 AM Reply Like
  • rubicon59
    , contributor
    Comments (1503) | Send Message
     
    what happened to Alex Guana? waiting on his downgrade...
    22 Aug 2012, 04:57 AM Reply Like
  • scott trader
    , contributor
    Comments (7021) | Send Message
     
    JNPhttp://http://bit.ly/O11Sln securities Alex Guana after so many bad predictions about Apple
    22 Aug 2012, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • Internal Source
    , contributor
    Comments (303) | Send Message
     
    Another guy who just wanted to get on CNBC and make either (a.) a name for himself, or (b.) an opportunity for his firm's clients to buy AAPL a few dollars lower than it was at the open.
    22 Aug 2012, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Day Trader001
    , contributor
    Comments (779) | Send Message
     
    Well he made an opportunity for me, and I sure appreciate it! Lol….$$$$$
    22 Aug 2012, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Bugsyjack
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Stuff happens, markets collapse, taking the "Generals" with it. If this writer gets it right, good for his wallet. It would be a lucky call. Every time I've tried to time Apple, I end up buying back in at a higher price. Still ahead but wish I would just "Let it ride".
    I see a big climb in AApl. Great products, I think the iPad #'s are going thru the roof for years. The iPhone, strong for years.
    Thanks for reading,
    Bugsyjack
    23 Aug 2012, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • remurraymd
    , contributor
    Comments (2274) | Send Message
     
    A fringe outlyer "ringer" totally clueless No mention of the 250 million iPhones to be sold @59% margin the major revenue generator or massive iPad sales in China. He is just not sure the TV will work.NONE of the Fast money crew agreed with him.Brian White of Topeka has actually been to Tapeii says it will work and be very revenue generative.He maintains his 1 year Target $1,111.11.
    3 Sep 2012, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • spondrei
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    Dont know about an $1111.11 tgt, however i do agree that AAPL will be a great revenue generator not only here but also China. Maybe $750-$800. I am long AAPL and also have some great Dec and Jan calls.
    4 Sep 2012, 12:07 PM Reply Like
  • spondrei
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    And by the way, QCOM and BRCM are other phenomenal plays not only on AAPL but all the smartphone makers. With QCOM down over the last week by over $2.00, great entry point....
    4 Sep 2012, 12:10 PM Reply Like
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