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More on Existing Home Sales: The median home price rose 9.4% Y/Y thanks to higher-end homes...

More on Existing Home Sales: The median home price rose 9.4% Y/Y thanks to higher-end homes representing a bigger slice of the home sale pie. NAR spinmeister Lawrence Yun is worried about low inventory, not demand, and calls for builders to build and Fannie, Freddie, and the banks to push their stable of foreclosed homes onto the market.
Comments (13)
  • Stable of foreclosed homes...like in North Las Vegas...
    22 Aug 2012, 11:22 AM Reply Like
  • BBro- in S Florida there is definitely a shortgage of homes under $200,000, the good properties sell in 2-4 days and have multiple offers on them. Not to long ago it was homes under $100,000, then moved up to $150,000 and now up to $200,000 the money is moving up the price scale. Banks releasing REO regularly not all at once will help prices because Fannie REO are no longer priced well below market, in many cases are at market. Banks are being more accommodative with short sales though in many cases they can take many months to resolve and close, they need to do more with that part of the market. As far as stable, NAR is probably referencing REO which the banks own outright and can do what they want, Short sales is a different story because the seller is still involve and has sway over some of the process which is problematic
    22 Aug 2012, 12:29 PM Reply Like
  • The folks maintaining that housing hasn't hit bottom and will be killed by "shadow inventory" become more humorous by the day.
    22 Aug 2012, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • There are 8-15 homes for sale in my neighborhood, ranging from 500k-1.4m. A few weeks back there were only like 2-4 one sold and then for sale signs popped up like weeds.
    22 Aug 2012, 12:13 PM Reply Like
  • Can anyone pinpoint exactly the number/locations equating to the "stable of foreclosed homes" held by Frannie, banks ?????

     

    Housing dynamics vary considerably w.r.t. location...(obvious)

     

    Of course, when subprime gets oversubscribed again, we're in (more) trouble...
    22 Aug 2012, 12:22 PM Reply Like
  • wh:

     

    As long as banks continue to require at least 20% down, the risk of subprime is effectively zero.
    22 Aug 2012, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the tacky comment...now can you answer my question "Can anyone pinpoint exactly the number/locations equating to the "stable of foreclosed homes" held by Frannie, banks..."
    22 Aug 2012, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Tack. Larry Yun has been cheering about the housing bottom since 2009. Check out my instablog as I added charts that show the phantom shadow inventory which seems, if these charts are accurate, to be substantial. Also look at the chart showing % of loans more than 60 days delinquent that is climbing through the ceiling. We are heading into another downleg in the global economic depression. America will have to start it's own version of European-style austerity, cutting how many thousands of jobs. How is that bullish for housing?

     

    The price of real estate in Tokyo is down 80% from their 1989 housing bubble top. They chose to hide debt by easing interest rates and pretending nothing was happening. The whole world is trying to follow that method now. We should wonder, since we are following Japan, if 80% decline in real estate prices in America is a real possibility from the highs posted in 2007? If so, we've got a lot more room to snooze or to sing that song: "Catch a falling knife and put it in your pocket. Save it for a rainy day..."

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Aug 2012, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • MC:

     

    It neither matters what was happening nor what anybody said in 2009 nor what is happening in Japan (can't imagine a worse barometer for U.S.). But, if you truly believe housing is headed down for more years and another 20%, as you've suggested more than once in various posts, I encourage you to go short all the related instruments. I (and others) have been doing quite nicely being long. How's the negative strategy working out?
    22 Aug 2012, 12:54 PM Reply Like
  • Two sides to these transactions: buyers and sellers.

     

    For buyers, it would seem like an excellent time to buy and even with the risk of further declines you are already starting from a low base to begin with so in absolute numbers, risk is a lot less than it used to be.

     

    Sellers on the other hand are now faced with locking in a loss if they bought at any time within the last 9 years or so especially in the bubble areas. I suspect the psychological impact of this event is yet to be felt as it dawns upon people that the drop in house prices they have heard about actually applies to them.
    22 Aug 2012, 12:49 PM Reply Like
  • All the signs of a strong housing recovery and still the doomers make excuses......

     

    The doomers are the same guys like Art Cashin who in May of 2009 said: "this rally in the stock market would end soon", "new lows coming"...

     

    They would always miss these opportunities, because they are interested in to see despair.

     

    Doomers, my net worth just hit a new all time high, and above 52% than 2007....
    22 Aug 2012, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • "The median home price rose 9.4% Y/Y thanks to higher-end homes representing a bigger slice of the home sale pie."

     

    I'm not sure why people keep saying this. Based on what evidence? If high-end homes are driving this, then you'd expect the average prices to move faster than the median, but that didn't happen. YOY, average prices increased 7.1% while median prices increased 9.4%, which directly refutes your claim. The whole point of using median vs average is because there is a lower limit to the price a house can sell (can't go negative) but there isn't really an upper limit, so by using median a $50 million home can be offset by a $20,000 home, where if you averaged them, it gets skewed upward. Is this really so difficult to understand?
    22 Aug 2012, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • "The median price of an existing home jumped 9.4 percent from a year earlier, the biggest 12-month gain since January 2006, to $187,300 from $171,200 in July 2011, today’s report showed."

     

    This is a pretty big deal but I have to admit a bit of confusion as to why it hasn't been picked up by any of the other house price tracking indexes like Corelogic, FNC, Zillow, etc. Corelogic is a repeat sales index so in theory when they release their next report it should show a big jump.

     

    http://bit.ly/NIeBZo
    "CoreLogic June Home Price Index Rises 2.5 Percent—Representing Fourth Consecutive Year-Over-Year Increase
    August 07, 2012, Santa Ana, Calif. –

     

    ––Pending HPI Forecasts Year-Over-Year July Increase of 2.0 Percent––
    The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that July home prices, including distressed sales, will rise by at least 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis from June 2012 and by 2.0 percent on a year-over-year basis from July 2011. Excluding distressed sales, July house prices are also poised to rise by 1.4 percent month-over-month from June 2012 and by 4.3 percent year-over-year from July 2011. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a new and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes in the most recent month."

     

    If this number is predictive the 2% forecast above will be blown out.
    22 Aug 2012, 02:30 PM Reply Like
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