Seeking Alpha

ConocoPhillips' (COP) sale of its 40% stake in Russian JV NaryanMarNefteGaz to Lukoil makes...

ConocoPhillips' (COP) sale of its 40% stake in Russian JV NaryanMarNefteGaz to Lukoil makes strategic sense since it was not part of core operations, Barclays says, but the firm believes upside for COP shares is limited until management does a better job convincing the market it can fund its dividend and capex program in a more mediocre oil price environment.
From other sites
Comments (6)
  • Stone Fox Capital
    , contributor
    Comments (7484) | Send Message
    um, the oil price isn't even close to mediocre so why do that?
    23 Aug 2012, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • ElCabong
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
    Yeah, somebody needs to define mediocre. It's 95 dollars and some change today.
    24 Aug 2012, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • David A Booth
    , contributor
    Comments (153) | Send Message
    WTI is $96/barrel while Brent is $115. The analyst is concerned that COP hasn't demonstrated how it will do well with oil at $80/barrel. Assuming that he means the Brent price of $80/barrel, this is what he is saying: COP shares won't do well in an environment where oil prices drop $35 per barrel. O.k., we all get that. But do we really need a professional analyst to tell us this?


    Here are two other things that we know:


    1. COP has a management that is committed to creating and unlocking shareholder value. We see this in their willingness to split off PSX into a separate company.


    2. Current oil prices reflect one of the worst economic backdrops of the last 50 years. If we look out 3, 4, or 5 years it is difficult to not see global growth being much better than it is today. Yes, China is currently slowing and Europe is a basket case - but that is today's story. When the global economy moves out of its current funk what do you think will happen to oil prices?


    3. The U.S. has created dollars like they were going out of style. Once velocity returns to the money supply we should expect this to produce meaningful commodity inflation (the alternative of the FED stepping heavy on the economy's breaks seems exceedingly unlikely to me). If I am correct about this, oil prices will not simply rise with increased economic demand they will rise faster than the increased economic demand.


    Best wishes,


    long COP, PSX
    23 Aug 2012, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • jeavant
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
    23 Aug 2012, 08:45 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Fitzsimmons
    , contributor
    Comments (9773) | Send Message
    a "mediocre" oil price? seriously?
    23 Aug 2012, 09:55 PM Reply Like
  • The Autonomous Guy #23
    , contributor
    Comments (209) | Send Message
    David : I concur with everything you have stated.


    I too am long COP and PSX. Heard that Mr.Buffet picked up a few


    million shares of PSX just the other day.
    23 Aug 2012, 10:25 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs