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Pro Farmer estimates following this week's crop tour have corn yield at 120.25 bu/acre vs. the...

Pro Farmer estimates following this week's crop tour have corn yield at 120.25 bu/acre vs. the USDA estimate of 123.4. Beans 34.8 bu/acre vs. USDA at 36.1 ("The crop from Ohio to Nebraska needs a drink right now to realize these yield estimates"). Iowa (nation's largest producer): "Early start to the growing season turned into a mid-season nightmare for corn trying to pollinate." Market reaction will have to wait until Sunday night.
Comments (5)
  • Glenn Doty
    , contributor
    Comments (1116) | Send Message
     
    If you calculate the percentage from last year to this year in the crop tour for each state, and multiply that by the state's percentage of the total corn crop from last year, you get a 16.9% reduction in the corn crop. If you then multiply the earlier estimate of ~145 bu/acre by 83.1%... you get a little over 120 bu/acre.

     

    Here's the problem. The states that they cover in the crop tour account for ~73% of the nation's corn crop. In order for the 120 bu/acre estimate to be correct, there would have had to be no loss from the other corn producing regions. That is unlikely, as the most drought-ravaged states in the U.S. were not on the tour and constitute some portion of the remaining 27% of the corn crop.
    24 Aug 2012, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Anthony
    , contributor
    Comments (3601) | Send Message
     
    Glen:

     

    Where are the specific corp tour numbers? You comment is interesting. I would like to do my own calculations.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:08 PM Reply Like
  • Glenn Doty
    , contributor
    Comments (1116) | Send Message
     
    Mark,

     

    They report on it at "agweb", a site I found while digging up data for my two articles on the drought.

     

    Here's the pro farmer tour info:

     

    http://bit.ly/OfIpiO

     

    Just scroll down and they give links to tables of data for each state they visited.
    24 Aug 2012, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • BruceInKY
    , contributor
    Comments (404) | Send Message
     
    Time to end the ethanol blending requirement.
    24 Aug 2012, 05:29 PM Reply Like
  • 27mar38
    , contributor
    Comments (40) | Send Message
     
    I drive the area and my guess is 100 bpa in central ILL.
    Anyone in that area want to tell me different?
    24 Aug 2012, 07:09 PM Reply Like
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