Seeking Alpha

Analysts question the idea Nokia (NOK -5.8%) will be a major beneficiary of the Apple-Samsung...

Analysts question the idea Nokia (NOK -5.8%) will be a major beneficiary of the Apple-Samsung verdict. While expecting Windows Phone to get a lift from the ruling, Berenberg argues Nokia's upcoming Lumia phones still have "no chance" of competing against Apple and Samsung, and that the market is pricing in margin, ASP, and and market share improvements that might not arrive. MKM recommends buying October 3.5/2.5 or 3/2.5 put spreads.
Comments (18)
  • 1mp1r3t4
    , contributor
    Comments (326) | Send Message
     
    As history proves, analysts' comments, endorsements, and detrimental assertions vary according to the interests of their employers and the securities positions held. In other words, they sell the book they're paid to push. Berenberg and MKM Partners must have a strong reason to push their stooges out the day after Nokia stock rallied. Could they be long Nokia puts or long Apple and Google, since they declare that the general public only wants to buy Apple or Android? In all cases, as always, the proof will be in the pudding. Opinions are like navels.
    28 Aug 2012, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • crozz
    , contributor
    Comments (298) | Send Message
     
    I looked up the analyst comments in the Barrons' article.
    Well. They all assume that the new phones will be purely received, because consumers just want Apple and Samsung and not Nokia.
    They are also talking about the PE of 10 for Nokia.

     

    I find this really a bit too simplistic.
    1) Nokia has a lot of cash that you need to deduct from the PE. As always the super smart analysts havent done this I guess
    2) It is the typical extrapolating the future fallacy that makes analysts so poor predictors of future trends. Nobody knows what consumers will want in 6months. Maybe consumers will be thrilled by Lumia smartphones, maybe not
    3) There is more to mobiles than just super-premium smartphones
    4) A PE of 10 is not too high coming from low earnings and having still a high potential for earnings improvement
    28 Aug 2012, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • marvinsannes
    , contributor
    Comments (51) | Send Message
     
    Drop a Nokia on your tile floor, drop a blackberry, Motorola, iPhone - quality still matters!
    28 Aug 2012, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • mr wonder
    , contributor
    Comments (546) | Send Message
     
    Aha.... uh... and who are those so called analysts?? Remarkable though. Berenberg in general almost never makes real sense to me.
    28 Aug 2012, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • westkite
    , contributor
    Comments (218) | Send Message
     
    If you buy or sell on analysts' comments, get out of the stock market. You are better off putting your money in the back and earn 0.5% interest. What a bunch of nonsense.
    28 Aug 2012, 03:06 PM Reply Like
  • Yokyok
    , contributor
    Comments (329) | Send Message
     
    a few more people will buy windows phones because of windows 8. but not many. there is an extremely small nitch that nokia appeals to, but for the vast majority, windows phone is ugly and nokia phones are ugly. that's why practically NOBODY BUYS THEM
    28 Aug 2012, 03:07 PM Reply Like
  • mr wonder
    , contributor
    Comments (546) | Send Message
     
    Most people need trendmakers in order to appreciate design and quality. If Nokia keeps on bringing out high quality phones combines with stylish designs like the Lumia 800 and 900, soon awareness among the vast majority will come. Great chances Nokia will be back at same profitable levels of Samsung and Apple.
    28 Aug 2012, 06:29 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4030) | Send Message
     
    I understand that said 'analysts' have to take a position on the ruling, but I'd suggest that it is highly likely that NOK will perform well in the current environment for a half dozen reasons, irregardless of the Samsung-Apple ruling, even though some will likely ascribe its successes to this ruling in the future.

     

    The most important result of the ruling may in fact be that we can more clearly see that Google's acquisition of Motorola and its patents is benefiting it, and while it looked for a while there as if no one really cared about buying patents (see: the weak offers to Kodak and the relative disinterest in RIM as examples) this case may have changed that, again.
    28 Aug 2012, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • lontichter
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Beware of 'Bergs... and other big aimlessly floating lugs of ice!

     

    It's not just about iPhone & Android... it's about market share WORLDWIDE... They are gaga for inexpensive, reliable smart(er)phones worldwide, anyone who is well traveled knows this. With a global recession mulling, do the math! Think outside the rectangle!

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    http://bit.ly/RkhY8w
    28 Aug 2012, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • Cbbeubach
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    The value of Nokia patents may be in excess of their market cap, so I am long.
    28 Aug 2012, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • crozz
    , contributor
    Comments (298) | Send Message
     
    The thing that frustrates me about the mobile handheld market is that there are no real criteria to predict if a mobile is selling well or not. Or are there? In the end it boils down to the question if a mobile appeals to the trendsetters, typically 17year old girlies or 15year old spoiled teenage boys.

     

    I am wondering if these guys make rational decisions based on technology or quality.

     

    Please let me know if I am completely off with my assumption.
    28 Aug 2012, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • mr wonder
    , contributor
    Comments (546) | Send Message
     
    So you are looking at teenagers choices in order to decide what you are going to buy... :p

     

    No matter how hard teenagers try to be different, they are among the groups of consumers who are influenced mostly by trends set out by idols or by tech companies.
    28 Aug 2012, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • Leont68
    , contributor
    Comments (1365) | Send Message
     
    Fine with me, I just bought to close a short put of mine. Will be waiting for the shares to drop a bit to sell some more puts.
    28 Aug 2012, 04:20 PM Reply Like
  • TexDan
    , contributor
    Comments (51) | Send Message
     
    C'mon bears knock this baby below $2!!! You're doing a terrible job!!!
    NOW you can wake up because the Nokia and Win8 are coming to the other major carrier with more than just an entry level phone this time! I think you know what I'm referring too! Win8 will be great on the phone, I just don't look for it to really take off on the pc platform.
    28 Aug 2012, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • StephanJK
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    Frankly, I don't really care, what Berenberg says, just another opinion, not more. Below 5 $, Nokia is a strong buy for me.
    28 Aug 2012, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • crozz
    , contributor
    Comments (298) | Send Message
     
    Unfortunately investors do. Look at how the stock went south :(((
    29 Aug 2012, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • ilgattogino
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Anybody of you think that the European customers knows Nokia better than all the other mobiles ?
    There is not just the USA market for them.
    29 Aug 2012, 06:24 AM Reply Like
  • sreimer77
    , contributor
    Comments (239) | Send Message
     
    It's amazing, it's as though these analysts live in a box. Who is the #2 manufacturer of cell phones? From what my friends in IT security say, W8 phones will become the standard issue. Apple does not integrate with business apps. I don't recall IBM, Oracle, SAP developing integrations with Apple.

     

    Many of the featured phones from Nokia are very smart. Most networks do not support the bandwidth needed for a fully functional smartphone. Only in major urban environments do you have the bandwidth. I live in the Boston suburbs and have one bar in my town. A smartphone is absolutely useless unless I'm close enough to my wifi or the highways. If that is the case 10 miles from Boston, what about 10 miles outside New Delhi .
    29 Aug 2012, 08:33 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector